Month: January 2013

Tennessee Titans 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Titans

After going 9-7 with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters in 2011 (26th in average age heading into the season), the Titans had a lot of hope for this season. Jake Locker was supposed to be an upgrade over veteran game manager Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Receiver Kenny Britt was finally supposedly healthy and Chris Johnson couldn’t possibly be worse than he was in 2011. Meanwhile, their young defense which ranked 8th in opponents’ scoring in 2011 looked like it once again could be a top-10 unit.

What happened? The Titans weren’t just bad. They were awful, even worse than their 6-10 record suggested, which is rare for a team with as few wins as they had. They ranked 30th in the NFL in DVOA and only the Jaguars and Chiefs had a worse points differential than they did. They had just two wins by more than 4 points and 6 losses by more than 21. Their defense was the biggest problem as they really showed their youth, going from 8th in opponents’ scoring to dead last, but they weren’t the only ones to blame.

Jake Locker really struggled in his first season as a starter, due probably in large part to two separated shoulder injuries. Even ancient backup Matt Hasselbeck outplayed him, as the strongest part of their season came when he was under center. They have the potential to get better next season because of their age, but they really need to play better. If they play like they did this season again, they’ll probably be much closer to 2-14 than 6-10.

Safety

Michael Griffin is owed 4.5 million in 2012, but it’ll only be guaranteed if he’s on the roster 5 days after the Super Bowl, so the Titans have a window of time to cut him. They should consider doing so. They gave the up and down former 1st round pick safety a big long term deal this offseason and he responded by having arguably his worst season as a pro, routinely missing tackles and coverages, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 86th rated safety out of 88. His 22 missed tackles led the NFL.

Even if he’s given a 2nd chance, safety is still a need. Other starter Jordan Babineaux was better by default, but not much. He was ProFootballFocus’ 76th rated safety. There’s a reason why the Titans ranked 24th against the pass and dead last in points per game allowed. He doesn’t have as much bounce back potential as Griffin and the veteran journeyman was benched twice this past season, so he could easily not return as a starter next year. At the very least, they need competition at the position, but at least one starting caliber safety should be brought in.

Middle Linebacker

2011 4th round pick Colin McCarthy had a decent second half to his rookie year after becoming the starter and had a lot of promise coming into this year, but various injuries derailed him, costing him all but 7 games. When he did play, he was awful. Despite his limited playing time, he still ended up with the 5th lowest rating on ProFootballFocus among eligible middle linebackers. The Titans could easily opt to replace him this offseason. Manti Te’o will be an option at 10th overall.

Cornerback

Their safeties weren’t solely responsible for their terrible pass defense, though more blame falls on them than the cornerbacks. Starters Jason McCourty and Alterraun Verner both played well, but they really missed Cortland Finnegan. With Finnegan, this was a position of major depth, but without him, they had nothing good behind the starters. Verner is a free agent next offseason anyway. DeMarcus Milliner is another option at 10th overall.

Guard

Chris Johnson’s blocking wasn’t as bad this year as it had been in the past, but guard is still a need. They really struggled for consistency at right guard, playing several different players there, while left guard Steve Hutchinson struggled in his age 35 season. Owed 5.25 million next season and not getting any younger, the Titans might not bring him back, in which case they’d need at least one, if not two new starters at guard.

Defensive End

Like at cornerback, the starters actually played pretty well here. Free agent acquisition Kamerion Wimbley panned out, while former 1st round pick bust Derrick Morgan had a very strong season in his 3rd year in the league, his first without injury issues. However, like cornerback, they really lack depth. Morgan and Wimbley played a ton of snaps, while top reserves Scott Solomon and Jarius Wynn were terrible in the limited action they got.

Running Back

Will Chris Johnson be back? I think they should consider parting ways with him. Overall, his production wasn’t bad this year, but he was just so inconsistent and reliant on his blocking. He had 1243 rushing yards, but had 56 or fewer in half of his starts. Turning 28 in 2013, he’s not getting any younger and running backs have a short shelf life. He’ll probably be brought back because of his star value, but he’s not worth the 10 million he’s owed in 2013. They at least need some competition for him and a better compliment. Javon Ringer is a free agent and he never managed to see any significant playing time, even when Johnson was struggling.

Center

Center wasn’t an issue for the Titans in 2012 as they finally seem to have found a successor for long time center Kevin Mawae in Fernando Velasco, who graded out 11th overall at his position on ProFootballFocus. However, he’s a free agent this offseason and if he’s not retained, they’ll have a need at the position.

Tight End

Jared Cook is also a free agent. He’s so athletic, but has never really lived up to the athleticism, with the exception of a few stretches of dominance. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of market he’s greeted with this off-season. I feel like he could be a dominant receiving tight end if he ended up in the right offense with a good quarterback, but that’s no sure thing. The Titans should still try to re-sign and they’ll need to replace him if they don’t.

Quarterback

It’s obviously too soon to give up on Jake Locker. He was terrible this year, but he was the 8th overall pick in 2011 and he hasn’t even made a full season’s worth of starts yet. He also suffered several shoulder injuries last year and never was really fully healthy all year, which might be to blame for his struggles. However, they definitely need some competition for him and a strong veteran backup. They had one last year in Matt Hasselbeck, but it’s unclear if he’ll be back at his currently scheduled 5.5 million dollar salary in 2013, his age 38 season. If he’s not, they’ll need to replace him.

Fullback

Quinn Johnson struggled as their lead blocker this season. He’s a free agent anyway.

Kicker

Rob Bironas is also a free agent this off-season. The long time vet is still kicking at a high level and should be retained if possible.

Kick Returner

Darius Reynaud was the Titans’ primary kick returner this season and he was very good at it. The problem is he’s a free agent this off-season.

Punt Returner

You can copy and paste what’s above. Reynaud also returned punts at a high level this season.

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New York Jets 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Jets

Several teams had worse years than the Jets, but I don’t think anyone had a weirder year. Turned into a circus in the offseason by the media, the Jets lived up to the hype. Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow led a touchdown drive all pre-season, but after a blowout win over the Bills week 1 and another win against the Dolphins week 3, this time in overtime, the Jets stood at 2-1. However, they suffered a major loss in that win, losing Darrelle Revis for the season. The following week, they were blown out 34-0 at home by the 49ers, on the strength of a Santonio Holmes “fumble.” Holmes got hurt on the play and mindlessly tossed the ball up in the air, only to have it returned for a touchdown by the Jets. Holmes didn’t play again the rest of the year.

After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the Jets won just 2 in their next 9 games, including the infamous “butt fumble” loss to the Patriots, which caused top fan Fireman Ed to quit. Mark Sanchez was struggling mightily, but Rex Ryan was stubbornly sticking with him even though the Jets had spent significant resources to acquire Tim Tebow during the offseason, presumably to provide competition for Sanchez. However, Ryan told the media that Tebow was never brought in to be a quarterback and that his current role, a few snaps and odds jobs per game, was his intended role. That doesn’t make any sense considering what they gave up for him, but I wouldn’t put it past the Jets. They may have just brought in Tebow to attract media attention.

Of course, Rex Ryan may have been lying when he said that. It’s very possible that there was just a major disconnect between the front office and Ryan on the situation. The front office clearly wanted him there for some reason. They traded for him. But Rex Ryan wanted no part of him on the field. Unsurprisingly, the game Ryan finally benched Sanchez, a 3 interception performance in an eventual 7-6 win that might have been the worst NFL game of the season, was the game in which Greg McElroy was Sanchez’ backup because Tebow was hurt.

Sanchez got his starting job back, but not for long. After a 5 turnover performance in a very winnable MNF game against the lowly Titans, the man who apparently has a tattoo of his wife wearing a Mark Sanchez jersey finally benched Sanchez, but it was too late as the Jets had already been eliminated from the playoffs with that loss. Ironically enough, Rex Ryan completely skipped 2nd string on his depth chart and started 3rd stringer Greg McElroy over Tebow when Sanchez was benched.

McElroy played like the inexperienced former 7th round pick he was, showing no pocket presence whatsoever, taking a ridiculous 11 sacks, most of which were on him as he was only pressured on 17 drop backs. McElroy got hurt in that game and Ryan went back to Sanchez for week 17, a loss to the Bills, which ended their season at 6-10.

Rex Ryan kept his job, but everyone else was fired. GM Mike Tannenbaum, the man responsible for numerous terrible contracts over the years, was fired, as was most of Ryan’s coaching staff. Their quarterback for 2013 is still a major question mark, but it appears that Tim Tebow will not be brought back. Mark Sanchez will have to be back because of his salary, thanks to the ridiculous extension Tannenbaum gave him, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be the starter.

Quarterback

Where do I even begin here? Following the worst season of Mark Sanchez’ career in 2011, the Jets pursued Peyton Manning heavily last off-season, but he went elsewhere. The Jets apparently decided that was a good reason to give Mark Sanchez an extension, widely viewed as an apology extension, even though he showed major signs of stunted development. To make matters worse, the Jets then decided to trade a 4th round pick for Tim Tebow, less than a month after guaranteeing Sanchez’ salary for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. This allegedly killed Mark Sanchez’ confidence and he played like it, having by far the worst season of his career in 2013.

The worst of it all, they had no actual plans to use Tim Tebow. He played a few random snaps per game, generally ineffectively, and Rex Ryan said this was the plan all along. Because that’s worth a 4th round pick and a 2.5 million dollar salary. When Mark Sanchez was eventually benched for ineffectiveness, after the Jets season was already over, Head Coach Rex Ryan skipped right over 2nd string Tebow on the depth chart and promoted 3rd string quarterback Greg McElroy. This was apparently because Tebow didn’t look good in practice, but he’s never looked good in practice. That’s a widely known fact about him. The Jets had to have known that when they acquired him.

Tim Tebow may or may not have asked to be traded or cut this offseason, but either way, it’s hard to imagine him back with the Jets in 2013. The Jets have said they are “open” to moving Mark Sanchez this offseason, just like I’m “open” to going home with Miss Universe. Not happening. Because he’s owed a fully guaranteed 8.25 million in 2013, thanks to that ridiculous extension, no one will even give up a 7th round pick for him and they can’t cut him because that would be a roughly 16 million dollar cap hit. They may bring in competition for Sanchez and McElroy, but the early money is on Sanchez starting for the Jets week 1, especially with biggest supporter Rex Ryan being retained as Head Coach.

Rush Linebacker

The Jets ranked 27th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency. Aaron Maybin, who was supposed to be a big part of their pass rush, was cut midseason. Calvin Pace is expected to be a cap casualty, owed 8.31 million in his age 33 season in 2013 after a terrible year in 2012, while Bryan Thomas is a free agent heading into his age 34 season. The only player who played a significant amount of snaps at the position expected to be back in 2013 is Garrett McIntyre, who didn’t play well in a situational role this year. They need at least one new starter at the position, maybe two. Unlikely to select a quarterback in the first round because of Sanchez’ salary, they could definitely take a pass rusher at #9 overall.

Safety

Both of the Jets’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season. Yeremiah Bell is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this year, while LaRon Landry has an injury history. Despite making the Pro-Bowl, he’s a pretty marginal player now even when healthy. Injuries have sapped his explosiveness and he missed 13 tackles last season. Injuries weren’t the only reason why he was pretty unwanted on the open market last off-season.

Wide Receiver

Mark Sanchez isn’t the only overpaid player that the Jets can’t cut this off-season. Santonio Holmes is owed 11 million in 2013. He’s not worth nearly half of that, but 7.5 million of that is guaranteed and the cap hit would be too huge to cut him. I guess he’ll be back as a starter, but I don’t think they can count on him. He’s not very good and he won’t be any better coming off a major injury. He’s also caused several locker room problems.
Stephen Hill will probably be back as the other starter opposite him. He’s not very good either, but the Jets have to give the 2012 2nd round pick another chance. He was widely considered a project and you can never write off a receiver after one year. Their top receiver last year was Jeremy Kerley and he’s the only receiver they can really count on next year, so they should add another one in the mix.

Running Back

Shonn Greene is a free agent and he’s a pretty marginal talent anyway. If the Jets didn’t have so many other needs, I’d suggest they invest in an explosive running back to take some pressure off their quarterbacks, but the Jets might have to bring back Shonn Greene to continue splitting carries with Bilal Powell, a 2011 4th round pick who played well down the stretch.

Tight End

Dustin Keller was the Jets’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, but injuries limited him to 28 catches for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games this year. He’s a free agent and the Jets should try to retain him because, when healthy, he’s their best receiving option and last year was the first year he had ever missed a game in his 5 year career.

The Jets are rumored to be interested in franchise tagging him, but he didn’t seem too keen on that idea, saying “I signed a five-year deal, that’s what I agreed to. To make somebody play a one-year deal to something they never agreed to is crazy to me. It’s not legal in any other business, so it’s still, it’s just crazy to me. So no, I definitely don’t want to be franchised.” Apparently being given close to 6 million guaranteed should be “not legal.” It’ll be interesting to see if that deters the Jets from tagging him. The last thing they need is a drawn out franchise tag saga to add to all of their other drama.

Guard

Starting guards Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore are both free agents. They need to be retained and if they can’t be, they’ll need to be replaced. Who else’s ass is Mark Sanchez going to run into? In all seriousness, both Slauson and Moore are very talented players who the Jets can’t let get away. Vladimir Ducaase, a former 2nd round pick, would probably be thrust into a starting role if either one or both leaves, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play thus far in his NFL career. Last offseason, he could even beat out the terrible Wayne Hunter and inexperienced journeyman Austin Howard at right tackle.

Middle Linebacker

Both of the Jets’ starting middle linebackers could be cap casualties. Bart Scott is owed 6.9 million in 2013, his age 33 season, and at this point in his career, he’s only a two down run stuffer and not worth that amount. Meanwhile, David Harris was ProFootballFocus’ 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 last year and is owed 10.9 million in the 3rd year of a ridiculous 4 year deal he was given after the 2010 season. Demario Davis, a 2012 3rd round pick, played alright in limited action this year and is viewed as a future starter, but if they cut both, they’ll have to find someone to play next to Davis.

Offensive Tackle

Austin Howard was a great run blocker in his first year as a starter at right tackle, but he struggled some in pass protection, allowing 10 sacks. Some of that can be blamed on poor pocket awareness by the quarterbacks and he actually graded out overall positively on ProFootballFocus (though negatively as a pass blocker), but I guess he could be upgraded if they could find an upgrade. I don’t know if it’s a pressing enough need, given all of their other needs, to be addressed this offseason.

3-4 Defensive End

Mike DeVito is a free agent. He’s a key part of their run defense and their defensive end rotation with Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson. If he isn’t re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Fullback

Fullback Lex Hilliard is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated eligible fullback last year anyway.

Kicker

Nick Folk is also a free agent. He’s had some struggles anyway.

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans

The Patriots blew out the Texans in Foxborough a few weeks ago so they’ll definitely blow them out again right? Well that seems to be what everyone thinks as, in spite of this ridiculous spread, the public is all over the Patriots. How ridiculous is this spread? Well, two weeks ago in the Patriots’ last game, they were favored by 10.5 over the Dolphins. Now they’re favored by 9.5 over the Texans? The Texans are 1 point better than the 7-9 Dolphins? Huh?

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The public always loses money in the long run. Odds makers are rich for a reason. Once again, I disagree with the public here. Just because the Patriots blew out the Texans last time, doesn’t mean they’ll do so again. This is a different game. In fact, the Texans may even have an edge because the Patriots might be overlooking the Texans a little bit here because of that game (and an impending showdown with the Broncos). Meanwhile, the Texans will use that as extra motivation.

Here’s an example: Boston sports writer Dan Shaughnessy joked that the Patriots were getting two bye weeks in a row, which Arian Foster turned into his Twitter avatar. Side note: I’m a Patriots fan, I was going to take Houston +9.5 anyway because it should be the right side, but when I found about what Shaughnessy said and Foster’s reaction to it, I was terrified (as a fan, for New England’s sake) because Shaughnessy always jinxes New England area sports teams. He’s not the only one. NBC’s Tony Dungy said that the Texans didn’t have a chance.

There’s a trend that sums the Texans revenge factor. Since 1989, teams are 8-4 ATS in the postseason trying to avenge a same season loss of 21 or more. The Patriots famously lost in this exact same situation a few years ago to the Jets. The Texans have the extra motivation. The Patriots might be overconfident. And this spread is out of control. Going off that trend, teams are 26-12 ATS in same season, same site, non-divisional revenge games since 1989.

The Patriots also tend to struggle as big favorites. They are 7-12 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010, including that Jets loss. That’s crazy considering they are 23-9 ATS in all other situations. Whenever they have big expectations and are expected to blow teams out, they tend to disappoint a little and play closer games. Brady is also 1-7 ATS in his last 8 postseason games and 3-8 ATS all-time as a favorite of 4.5 or more in the post-season. I’m not going to pick the Patriots to lose or anything (they are 15-4 SU as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010), but this game will be close, closer than people think. I’ll gladly take the points.

New England Patriots 27 Houston Texans 23

Pick against spread: Houston +9.5 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Bills

With an easy schedule and a revamped defense, the Bills were a popular sleeper team heading into the season. The defense looked good and as limited as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, their stellar offensive line and strong running game would be able to support him enough against an easy schedule. Well, that was about half true. Fitzpatrick held up the “limited” part of the bargain and the offensive line and running game played well. After ranking 1st in 2011, the Bills ranked 4th in pass block efficiency this season, while CJ Spiller had a major breakout year, averaging 6.0 YPC. He held the NFL record for yards per carry going into week 17.

The defense didn’t hold up its end of the bargain, however, allowing 27.2 points per game, 26th in the NFL. Much of the blame can fall on terrible defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt, who won’t be back next season. That’s the case with the entirety of the coaching staff as Head Coach Chan Gailey was fired, replaced by former Syracuse Head Coach Doug Marrone. GM Buddy Nix remains, but you could argue he doesn’t deserve to. His crowning “achievement” as GM of the Bills was a 62.2 million dollar 7-year contract he gave to Ryan Fitzpatrick before he had even started 16 games for the team. Fitzpatrick predictably flopped. Even Nix seems to admit it.

Nix, who is normally open with these types of things, hinted at adding a quarterback through the draft recently, saying “I don’t want to leave here without a franchise guy [at quarterback] for the future in place. I have not said that before but I’m saying it now because it’s fact.” It sounds like someone has soured on Fitzpatrick, who is owed a non-guaranteed 7.25 million in 2013 and does not come with a huge cap hit. Fitzpatrick has also lost his biggest supporter, Gailey, and Marrone will probably want to bring in his own guy.

Nix also discussed potentially moving up for a quarterback, presumably Geno Smith if the Chiefs were to pass, saying “Let me say this: I think there’s a time that in the era that you’re in and the development of your team, there’s a time when you can move up a round to take a quarterback. And I think the time’s now for us. We need a good, young quarterback, and we’re going to do our best to get him.”

Quarterback

I detailed the Bills’ quarterback situation above. Assuming the Chiefs take Smith and the Bills stay put, they may have their choice between second tier quarterbacks Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, and Mike Glennon at 8th overall. They may also opt to wait until the 2nd round to grab Ryan Nassib. Nassib was recruited to Syracuse and coached all 4 years there by new Bills Head Coach Doug Marrone, so a fit would seem natural. However, there’s no guarantee that Marrone sees Nassib, widely regarded as a 2nd day pick, as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so he won’t be married to him or anything. Either way, it sounds like there will be a new signal caller under center for the Bills in 2013.

Wide Receiver

The Bills have tried two different starters opposite Steve Johnson in the last two years, David Nelson and Donald Jones. Neither impressed and the former will be coming off a major injury next season. Meanwhile, 2012 3rd round pick TJ Graham projects more as a slot receiver long term. They need a true #2 receiver opposite Johnson.

Defensive End

The Bills made a big splash in free agency, signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to boost their pass rush. The former played well, but the latter didn’t, struggling mightily until going down with a knee injury after week 5. Owed 3.9 million in 2013, non-guaranteed, the inconsistent and injury prone pass rusher might not be brought back and even if he is, they need some competition. Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, and Kyle Moore all struggled in his absence.

Safety

Bills’ safety Jairus Byrd and Chargers’ safety Eric Weddle have a chance to be what Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu once were at safety in the NFL. However, Byrd is a free agent and will need to be re-signed. Even if he is re-signed, this position is still somewhat of a need, as other starter George Wilson, while he’s coming off a solid season, will be a free agent heading into his age 33 season in 2014.

Guard

Like Jairus Byrd, guard Andy Levitre is among the best in the league at his position and will need to be re-signed or replaced if he goes elsewhere. Not worth the offensive line franchise tag as an interior lineman and with the Bills’ franchise tag likely going to Byrd, there’s a stronger possibility that Levitre won’t be back than Byrd.

Cornerback

There’s still time for him to turn it around, but 2011 2nd round pick Aaron Williams has really struggled in his first two years in the league. He was replaced in the starting lineup by Leodis McKelvin last season, who played much better, but now he’s a free agent. They need to at least bring in some competition for Williams. Re-signing McKelvin would suffice.

Punt Returner

Here’s another reason why re-signing McKelvin would be a smart move. The Bills were first in the NFL in punt return average with McKelvin as the primary punt returner. If they don’t re-sign him, they’ll have to find someone else to take care of punts.

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Arizona Cardinals 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Cardinals

The Cardinals started this season 4-0 and everyone hoped on the bandwagon. Idiots like Michael Silver put them first in their Power Rankings, overlooking their general lack offensive of talent. Apparently everyone forgot that the Bills and Redskins did a similar thing just last year before falling back down to earth. Having a strong stretch in the middle of the season usually goes unnoticed, but when you do it to begin a season apparently that means you’re for real, even if your quarterback is Kevin Kolb, you can’t run the football or pass protect and your only good offensive player is Larry Fitzgerald.

The Cardinals fell back down to earth the following week against St. Louis, but what happened next was worse than anyone could have imagined. Kolb got hurt and didn’t play the rest of the way and things went from mediocre to just plain painful at quarterback. John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer played the rest of the way and only the latter even looked like he belonged on an NFL field.

That trio combined to throw for 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions, wasting Fitzgerald (71/798/4) and the Cardinals won just 1 game (a defense and special teams led effort) the rest of the way. Ryan Lindley was the worst of the trio, setting the NFL record for most career pass attempts without a touchdown (171), while concurrently throwing 3 touchdowns to the defense. John Skelton wasn’t much better, throwing 2 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, while becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to get benched for Ryan Lindley twice (including once when his team led 13-0). Skelton was also at the helm for most of the Cardinals’ 58-0 bloodbath loss in Seattle.

Ken Whisenhunt was fired for the offense’s ineptitude and, owed 11 million next season, the future of the injury prone and inconsistent Kolb remains murky at best. Whoever takes over this job will have a massive task in rebuilding this offense as they were among the worst in the NFL in all three critical areas, passing, rushing, and offensive line. They ranked 32nd in YPA, YPC, and sacks allowed and advanced offensive line statistics didn’t paint any brighter of a picture. They ranked 29th in the league in pass block efficiency and they were ProFootballFocus’ 32nd ranked run blocking offensive line. It’s a shame because they have a solid defense. If they can ever get the offense figured out, they might be able to compete.

Quarterback

Kevin Kolb won’t be back at his scheduled 11 million dollar salary in 2013, so the Cardinals have an obvious need at quarterback. In spite of his shortcomings and his injury history, Kolb is the only passable quarterback on their roster. They had 3 other quarterbacks start games for them this season and they combined to throw 3 touchdowns to 18 interceptions. The Cardinals may opt to bring Kolb back at a cheaper price or bring in a veteran like Alex Smith or Michael Vick, but if they don’t have a quarterback in place by draft day, expect them to take one at #7 overall. A 2nd rounder won’t be ready right away, especially in this weak quarterback class, and they don’t have anyone to function as a stopgap.

Offensive Tackle

It might be best for the Cardinals to address the quarterback position before the draft so they can address the offensive line at #7. They might address the offensive line during free agency with 2008 1st round picks Jake Long, Branden Albert, Ryan Clady, and Gosder Cherilus all possibly being free agents this offseason (though they could be franchised), but it’s unclear if the Cardinals will have the cap space to get into bidding wars for those guys.
Either way, offensive tackle is a huge need for them. Their offensive line settled down a little bit when D’Anthony Baptiste was benched midseason, but they still ranked 29th in the league in pass block efficiency. They can’t feel comfortable with Nate Potter and Bobby Massie being their starting offensive tackles in 2013. They were 7th and 4th round picks respectively in 2012 and predictably struggled as rookies.

Guard

Tackle wasn’t the only issue for the Cardinals on the offensive line. Adam Snyder was ProFootballFocus’ 78th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. In 2011, with the 49ers, he was 76th out of 78. I have no idea why the Cardinals gave him a 5 year, 17.5 million dollar deal last offseason, but he’s owed a non-guaranteed 2.9 million in 2013 and even if he’s back, it shouldn’t be as a starter. This is arguably a bigger need than tackle because, unlike Massie and Potter, Snyder is not young and didn’t improve down the stretch.

Middle Linebacker

I feel like I’ve been writing that Paris Lenon needs to be upgraded since he was in Detroit, but one of the league’s most marginal talents has somehow gotten starting jobs in St. Louis and Arizona since. There’s no getting rid of him. It’s been a while since I’ve seen someone as marginal as him last this long in the league. However, he’s been even worse over the last few years as he’s aged, ranking next to last among middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 years. Heading into his age 36 season in 2013, they really need a new starter inside next to Daryl Washington.

Rush Linebacker

The Cardinals ranked 23rd in pass rush efficiency last season despite good play from their defensive line. O’Brien Schofield and Sam Acho ranked 25th and 30th respectively out of 34 eligible among rush linebackers on ProFootballFocus last season. They at least need some competition for the young linebackers as they also lack depth behind them and both have had some injury issues.

Safety

Kerry Rhodes revitalized his career this season, but Adrian Wilson had arguably the worst season of his career next to him. He was removed in sub packages and even admitted himself that he doesn’t expect to be back with the team next season, owed 3.5 million in his age 34 season. They could bring in a replacement for him in the starting lineup or they may opt to go forward with Rashad Johnson, who saw increased playing time down the stretch, as a starter in 2013. Either way, I think they do need to add some youth at the position as Rhodes will be a free agent heading into his age 32 season next offseason.

Cornerback

The Cardinals really struggled at the cornerback spot opposite Patrick Peterson. William Gay was terrible, while 3rd round rookie Jamell Fleming barely saw the field. They have other needs so they’ll probably give Fleming the first crack at the starting job in 2013, but it wouldn’t hurt them to add some extra competition.

Running Back

Chris Wells is not expected to be back. The former 1st round pick is coming off an injury plagued season in which he averaged just 2.7 YPC and before week 17’s game he said he was auditioning for the other 31 teams in that game. He didn’t play a single snap. With Ryan Williams coming off his 2nd major injury in as many years, they could use some better insurance than La’Rod Stephens-Howling and William Powell, who were inconsistent when counted on this season. There’s a reason the Cardinals finished the year ranked dead last in YPC at 3.4.

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks

Note: I normally don’t do picks this early, but Chris Clemons is expected to be out with a torn ACL. Once news of that is confirmed, this line will go up from -2.5. I like the Falcons either way, but I like them a lot more at -2.5 than -4.5, so I’m going to get this one locked in before the line moves. And if Clemons doesn’t have a torn ACL, well I was going to make this pick anyway so it’s not a loss.

Allow me to save you some time and give you all the analysis you’ll hear on ESPN or any other major sports network shows: “Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game so he can’t possibly win this game BLAH BLAH BLAH.” That’s one of the stupidest arguments because it presumes you can tell from 3 games that a generally solid quarterback somehow becomes worse in the postseason than the regular season.

Peyton Manning, though obviously a better quarterback, was in a similar situation early in his career, losing his first 3 postseason games, before winning 2 in 2003 and taking his team to the AFC Championship. Eli Manning lost his first two before leading the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2007, winning 4 in the process. Two of Ryan’s three losses came against eventual Super Bowl champs and one came on the road as a rookie. And yet people still seem to think that he can’t possibly win this game because of what happened in those first 3 games.

Everyone in the media will probably be on the Seahawks this week and an early ESPN poll shows that the public is 2/3rds on the Seahawks. I don’t have public betting action yet, but I bet the public will be all over Seattle getting points. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run and this week is certainly no exception. I especially love fading them when they’re on a dog because that creates a slighted favorite and gives them even more motivation. The Bengals and Colts were popular upset picks this week. How’d that work out?

I’ve been down on the Falcons all season. I’ve frequently said that they’re not as good as their record because of a lot of close calls with inferior teams. I still think they will lose at home to either Green Bay or San Francisco. Those teams are different monsters. But, it’s almost like the Falcons have become underrated for being overrated, that people have called the Falcons “overrated” so many times that everyone has forgotten that they’re a good football team with a great home field advantage.

Matt Ryan is 32-6 at home in his career, while the Seahawks have lost in Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit this year, had a close call in Carolina, went to overtime with Chicago, and trailed 14-0 in Washington just last week before Robert Griffin got hurt. And that’s what people are overlooking this week (as well as the impact of Chris Clemons’ loss, contrary to popular belief rookie Bruce Irvin can’t fill his shoes as an every down end).

While the Seahawks are 12-24 ATS as non-divisional road dogs since 2005, the Falcons are 14-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites since 2008, only losing twice (once was against the Packers in the playoffs in 2010, but no one was stopping them that year). On top of that, the Seahawks have to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team, a huge disadvantage. I expect them to get another home win against a road challenged team and for Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons to use the criticism positively and get his first postseason win.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) 4 units

Cleveland Browns 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Browns

The Browns have played in just 1 playoff game since 1994 (they were deactivated for 3 years in that stretch, but still). Lack of continuity continues to be an issue for them and it won’t get any better for them next season. They have a new owner who has brought in a new GM and front office, which will bring in a new Head Coach once again. That Head Coach is expected to be Chip Kelly, who is expected to bring in yet another new quarterback.

The good news for the Browns: The had just 4 losses by more than 10, only 3 if you don’t count a meaningless week 17 game in which 3rd stringer Thad Lewis had to start. Chip Kelly has the potential to be the best coach they’ve had since being reactivated. If Kelly and whatever new quarterback they bring in can get anything out of a young, but promising offensive group of talent, they have a talented enough defense to compete in an AFC North that is in flux right now.

Defensive End

The Browns’ defense is better than the Browns’ offense, but they’ll probably focus more on the defense that the offense this season. They have a lot of young talent on offense that they need to wait on to develop. Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, and Josh Gordon were all drafted this year. Jason Pinkston, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, and Jordan Cameron were drafted in 2011. All of those guys were drafted in the first 4 rounds. They need to wait on these guys.

On defense, they ranked 26th in pass rush efficiency. Jabaal Sheard had a major sophomore slump this year after having a great rookie year in 2011. I still believe in the 2011 2nd round pick’s long term potential, but they need someone opposite him regardless. Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker split snaps opposite him. Parker is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this offseason, while Rucker just isn’t that good.

Outside Linebacker

The Browns really struggled for consistency at outside linebacker this season as 6 different guys made starts and none of them really impressed. The Browns will strongly consider Manti Te’o at #6 overall. He would probably play middle linebacker and move D’Qwell Jackson, coming off a down year, back to his natural outside linebacker spot.

Cornerback

Sheldon Brown actually had a very good year opposite Joe Haden this season, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season this offseason. Regardless of whether or not he’s brought back, they’ll need another cornerback to go with Joe Haden and up and down 2011 6th round pick Buster Skrine because Brown can’t be trusted in either the long term or short term.

Guard

Cleveland had the 3rd ranked offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency, but right guard Shawn Lauvao was the weak link and needs to be replaced. The 2010 3rd round pick has started 32 games in the last 2 seasons, but he really hasn’t been impressive.

Wide Receiver

The Browns’ top three wide receivers in terms of snaps played last season were all either in their 1st or 2nd year in the league. They predictably struggled, but there’s still time for them to turn it around. However, they could use a veteran in the mix. Mohamed Massaquoi, the “veteran” of the group, is a free agent, while 2011 2nd round pick Greg Little still doesn’t seem to be able to shake his issues with drops.

Tight End

Ben Watson is a free agent and they seem ready to give 2011 4th round pick Jordan Cameron a chance to be the starting tight end. They could use some veteran insurance in case he falters.

Quarterback

Will it be another new quarterback in 2013 for the Browns? Brandon Weeden was a 1st round pick just last year, but he struggled as a rookie and he’s already heading into his age 30 season. Everyone who drafted him has been fired with new ownership coming in and he was reportedly being given an audition for the 2013 job down the stretch. With Chip Kelly expected to be coming in, Weeden may be traded as he’d fit like a square peg in a round hole in Kelly’s system. Bringing in a veteran like Michael Vick, a dual threat quarterback, seems like something they’ll do.

Kicker

Phil Dawson is one of the best kickers in the league, but he’s a free agent once again and new CBA rules say he can’t be franchised again unless the Browns want to pay him the quarterback franchise tag price (around 15 million, not happening). If he can’t be re-signed, he’ll have to be replaced.

Punter

The Browns ranked 30th in the league in net punting average. Reggie Hodges is a free agent and they need to upgrade him.

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Detroit Lions 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Lions

What a weird year for the Lions. They outgained opponents by nearly a thousand yards, but still went 4-12, losing their final 8, after entering the year with hopes of improving on a 2011 playoff appearance. A 3-8 record in games decided by 7 or less and a 30th ranked -16 turnover differential doomed them and they were once again one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. Fortunately for them, their issues aren’t as major as most of the teams who finished with double digit losses. They got blown out in just 2 games and if they can avoid turnovers and penalties, they can once again be competitive in 2013. They also have a top-5 pick to add more talent to the mix. Expect them to focus on defense.

Cornerback

The Lions really need help at cornerback. The only cornerback who graded out positively on ProFootballFocus at the position was Chris Houston, who is a free agent. They have Bill Bentley and Jonte Green, 2012 3rd and 5th round draft picks, but Bentley is coming off a major injury and they need a blue chip prospect at the position.

Safety

Thanks to injuries and general inconsistencies, the Lions had 6 different players make several starts at safety last year. Their only above average player at the position is Louis Delmas, a very injury prone player who is a free agent this offseason. They were decent against the pass this year, 16th in YPA, because of a strong pass rush, but they desperately need some blue chip talent in a secondary where they’ve been patchwork for a while.

Defensive End

The Lions once again had one of the best pass rushes in the league this season. However, that was because of stud defensive tackles Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. Their defensive ends didn’t really play that well. Cliff Avril had a down year by his standards while playing under the franchise tag. He rejected a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal last offseason from the Lions and won’t get a bigger one than that from them this offseason, so he could easily be elsewhere next year.

Meanwhile, Kyle Vanden Bosch was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 4-3 defensive end, struggling mightily both as a pass rusher and a run stuffer. Owed 5.5 million in 2013, his age 35 season, he probably won’t be back. Behind Avril and Vanden Bosch, once promising rotational ends Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young both struggled this year. They need to add a stud defensive end to compliment Fairley and Suh in the middle and may need 2 new starters. They won’t let Damontre Moore get past them at #5.

Outside Linebacker

Both starting outside linebackers DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant are free agents. Durant should be brought back, but Levy has really struggled since moving from middle linebacker to outside linebacker following the 2010 season and with Stephen Tulloch in the middle, moving him back there is not a realistic option. They used some late round picks last year on outside linebackers, but I don’t know if any of them can start this year.

Offensive Tackle

Gosder Cherilus, once written off as a bust as the 17th overall pick in 2008, Cherilus had the best season of his career this season, just in time to be a free agent. The Lions will have to avoid overpaying him based on what he did just this season, but he should be brought back. If he’s not, Riley Reiff can step in at right tackle right away, but his long term future is at left tackle, where Jeff Backus will be a 36 year old in a contract year next season, assuming he’s even brought back. They’ll need a long term bookend for Reiff if Cherilus isn’t brought back.

Defensive Tackle

Obviously Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh are long term starters, but the Lions really like to rotate defensive lineman to keep them fresh and since it’s worked so well for Suh and Fairley so far, they’ll probably want to continue that. However, top reserves Sammie Lee Hill and Corey Williams are both free agents this offseason.

Wide Receiver

The Lions have Calvin Johnson and have used 2nd round picks on Titus Young and Ryan Broyles in the last two years, but they still have an immediate need at wide receiver. Broyles will probably start next season on the PUP after tearing his ACL late this season and Titus Young has been suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team, including purposely lining in the wrong position during a game in an attempt to sabotage the team. Behind them, Kris Durham and Mike Thomas really struggled down the stretch. They don’t need to draft another receiver, but they could use another veteran in the mix. They may opt to restructure the deal of veteran Nate Burleson, a 32 year old receiver who is owed 4.5 million next season.

Kicker

Jason Hanson still is a good kicker at age 42 (43 in July), but he’s a free agent and may just opt to hang them up. If he can’t be brought back, they’ll need to replace him.

Punter

The Lions ranked dead last in the NFL in net punting average. Nick Harris, a free agent, needs to be replaced.

Kick Returner

I don’t know what happened to Stefan Logan. Once one of the best return men in the league, Logan fumbled a ridiculous 6 times on special teams this year and he wasn’t even good when he didn’t fumble as the Lions ranked 31st in the league in kickoff return average with him as their primary return man. He was benched for week 17 after he randomly called a fair catch at the 4 yard line against Atlanta week 16 and I don’t expect him back in that role next season. They need to find someone to replace him.

Punt Returner

You can basically copy and paste what I said above. With Logan as their primary punt returner, the Lions ranked 22nd in the league in punt return average.

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Seahawks

For analysis on Seattle click here
For analysis on Washington click here

Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami, as well as close calls against Carolina and Chicago, all 6 of whom missed the playoffs. The Seahawks are just 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2005 and I like that Washington may feel slighted that no one is really talking about them to win this game. I think Seattle has a better chance to win this game, but I’m going to grab the 3 points for a small play. It would have to be all the way past the key line of 4 for me to play a significant play on the Redskins though.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against spread: Washington +3 (-110) 2 units