Month: January 2013

Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Commanders

I have the Redskins ranked higher than the Ravens because they beat them head-to-head and because the NFC is by far the better conference this year overall (AFC divisional winners are 0-6 against NFC playoff teams). However, I like the Ravens to advance further than the Redskins because of their competition. The Redskins have a very good team and are deserving NFC East Champions, but I don’t think they are on the same level as fellow NFC divisional winners Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, all 3 of whom they’d have to play on the road.

In fact, they don’t even get an easy home game to start things off. They open up as 3 point home dogs against the Seahawks. While the Vikings, Bengals, and Colts, the other 3 wild cards, are ranked as the 3 worst teams in these playoff Power Rankings, the Seahawks might have the best overall team in the league, ranking 1st in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Redskins saving grace might be their home field advantage as the Seahawks are 3-5 away from their excellent home crowd this season, including losses to teams much worse than Washington like St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit. That might not be enough to get the Redskins a playoff win however.

Projected fate: Lose to Seahawks in Wild Card round

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Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Ravens

The Ravens defense was destroyed by injuries this year and as a result more has fallen on the offense than ever before. They’ve responded well. Joe Flacco statistically doesn’t seem to be having a year any different than any of his other seasons, but he’s led the Ravens to a career high 24.8 points per game despite getting average seasons from Ray Rice and the rest of his supporting cast (thanks to a career high red zone touchdown percentage).

Still, that’s not enough for this team to go deep into the playoffs. They were deserving AFC North champions more because of their offense than their defense, but they are exactly as good as their 10-6 record suggests. They started the year 9-2, but they weren’t as good as that record suggested. 6 of those wins came by 7 or fewer points, including 5 by 3 or fewer points. They proved that by finishing 1-4 in their final 5 games and I think their record has regressed to show exactly the type of team this is, good, but not great and injuries on defense are a big part of that.

They get their biggest name injured player back for the playoffs, Ray Lewis. That will help them, but not as much as they need. Their best defensive player, Lardarius Webb, has missed most of the season with a torn ACL, while Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata have all dealt with injuries of their own and have not played at their normal levels. Lewis, meanwhile, showed major signs of slowing down to age 37 before getting tearing his biceps and I can’t imagine coming back this quickly from a major injury like that will help him get things turned back around. His best days are behind him and his biggest value to this team is as a leader and his intangibles (which can’t be overlooked, but still).

One other thing that can’t be overlooked for the Ravens, if they beat an overrated Colts team in the 1st round of the playoffs (I think they will), they’ll have to win their next two on the road to advance to the Super Bowl, unless Cincinnati somehow sneaks through. I don’t doubt that the Ravens can hand the Colts their 5th double digit road loss of the season, but winning in Denver or New England is a different story.

Joe Flacco has always been noticeably better at home than on the road, but this year he’s taken it to another level. At home, he completes 62.2% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while on the road, he completes 56.9% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. At home, his quarterback rating (99.0) compares to Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. On the road (74.9), it compares to Ryan Tannehill’s and Jake Locker’s.

Obviously, I think the Ravens would prefer to face the Broncos than the Patriots in the divisional round right now, as they beat the Patriots earlier this season and the Broncos blew them out at home. However, that win over the Patriots came in Baltimore and when they were still healthy. I don’t think they could win in either Denver or New England.

Projected fate: Lose to Denver in divisional round

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Cincinnati Bengals: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Bengals

The Bengals have made the playoffs for the 2nd straight year, but like last year, they did it by winning the games they were supposed to and nothing else (well not technically nothing else this year, but close to it). The Bengals went 9-0 against non-playoff teams last season, but 0-7 against playoff teams, a number that grew to 0-8 when they lost to the Texans in the first round of the playoffs.

This year, it was more of the same, as went 9-4 against non-playoff teams and 1-2 against playoff teams (I’m counting the Ravens week 17 in the former rather than the latter because they rested their starters, which doesn’t really count). That 1 win against a playoff team that was actually trying came against the Redskins, a game in which the Redskins lost left tackle Trent Williams for the game with injury. Those were also the same pre-bye Redskins who lost to the Panthers and went 3-6 to start the season. And that’s Andy Dalton’s only legitimate win over a playoff team in his career.

In those 11 games, Dalton is a combined 236 of 415 (56.9%) for 2807 yards (6.8 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. In the other 19 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. The good news for the Bengals, they are better around Dalton this year than last year that they did beat some good non-playoff teams. Wins against the Steelers and Giants are impressive, even though those two teams missed the playoffs.

They have one of the best defensive lines in football and they’ve had one of the best overall defenses in the game over the 2nd half of the season, in which they’ve gone 7-1 (albeit against a weak schedule). They have plenty of momentum heading into the playoffs and they are overall in better position to beat the Texans than they were last year, even though the Texans didn’t have Matt Schaub last year, as the Texans are skidding and have really missed Brian Cushing, while the Bengals are a better team. However, I think it’s once again one and done for the Bengals.

Projected fate: Lose to Texans in Wild Card round

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Minnesota Vikings: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Vikings

I’m going to do an awards article in a few days, but I’ll give a sneak pick. I think that Adrian Peterson should be MVP for taking the Vikings to the playoffs, despite their horrific pass offense. The Vikings averaged just 6.1 YPA this season, good for 31st in the NFL. In fact, it took a career best effort by Christian Ponder week 17 to even get them above 6 yards per attempt this season.

How much did they exceed the record of the average team who gains 6 or fewer yards per pass attempt? Try 6 wins (I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins). Including this year’s Chiefs, 22 other teams since 2006 have averaged 6 or fewer yards per attempt. 20 of them won 5 or fewer games and none won more than 7. They averaged 3.8 wins per season and 14.6 points per game.

The Vikings won 10 (in arguably the toughest division in football) and averaged 23.7 points per game. While what Peyton Manning has done with the Broncos is incredibly impressive, if you replace Manning with an average quarterback, they may have still made the playoffs (they made them with Tim Tebow last year). If you replace Peterson with an average back, the Vikings might not win 5 games.

Though Peterson’s value should enough to win him the MVP, it’s not enough for the Vikings to win a playoff game, I believe. Peterson alone makes them respectable, which is MVP worthy, but they need a good passing game to succeed in the postseason. They even needed a decent one to succeed in the regular season. In wins, Adrian Peterson rushed for 1335 yards on 244 attempts (5.5 YPA) and in losses he rushed for 762 yards on 104 attempts (7.3 YPC).

Meanwhile, in wins Ponder has completed 64.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while in losses Ponder completed 59.4% for an average of 5.6 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Peterson might have had an amazing season, but if he had trouble winning games all by himself in the regular season (as anyone would, even Peyton Manning), how he is going to do it in the postseason?

Christian Ponder certainly won’t play better in the postseason than the regular season. Not only are they tougher opponents, but they’ll all be on the road, where Ponder completes 3% fewer of his passes for an average of 1.7 yards per attempt fewer and a 7:6 TD:INT ratio as opposed to a 11:6 one. He’s also 3-5 on the road, as opposed to 7-1 at home. Expect the Vikings to be one and done.

Projected fate: Lose to Packers in Wild Card round

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Indianapolis Colts: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Colts

The Colts shocked the world this year, going from 2 wins to 11 wins and the 5 seed in the AFC. However, they haven’t been as good as their record. They enter the postseason at -30 in points differential (the worst ever by an 11+ win team). This because they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown and 4 losses, including 3 losses by 20 or more.

They are 11-5 by virtue of their 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or more. A lot of people think this is impressive and point to this as a reason why Andrew Luck should be Rookie of the Year over Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin in spite of the latter two’s far superior stats (stats aren’t everything, but sometimes you can’t ignore them: Griffin and Wilson were 3rd and 4th in QB rating, Luck was 26th). I disagree with that as record in close games tends to be inconsistent on a game to game passes (teams who win a game by 7 points or less win the following game 52% of the time if it’s also decided by 7 points or less).

I don’t believe that some teams “know how to win games” more than others, just that some teams happen to play slightly better than their opponent more often than their opponent plays slightly better than they do. But even if that’s true, consider the Colts’ schedule. The Colts played a ridiculous 10 teams this season who won 7 or fewer games, going 9-1 in those 7 games, with 8 of those 9 wins coming by a touchdown or less. As a result of their weak schedule and unimpressive points differential, the Colts were DVOA’s 25th ranked team this year, worst ever by an 11 win team. They managed to win 11 games despite ranking 18th and 21st respectively in scoring offense and scoring defense. They only thing they were good at this season was winning close games, something I don’t think they can keep up.

And even if you believe regular season success in close games does predict success in close playoff games, you can’t argue that regular season success in close games against the Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Lions predicts success in close postseason games against the likes of Baltimore, New England, and Denver. In fact, those games probably won’t even be that close considering the Colts struggle against playoff caliber teams on the road, where all of their playoff games will be unless they somehow face the Bengals in the AFC Championship (which won’t happen because they’ll have to win 2 road games first).

It is true that they are 3-2 against playoff teams this season and they are the only AFC team to have two wins over playoff teams from the superior NFC (in fact, while the AFC division winners are 0-6 against NFC playoff teams, wild cards Cincinnati and Indianapolis are somehow a combined 3-0). However, all 3 of those wins came at home and two of them came by a combined 6 points (I’ll get to the 3rd in a minute). On the road, they’ve lost in Houston by 12 and in New England by 35, their only two road games against playoff teams. They also have road losses by 20 in Chicago and 26 against the Jets (I think the simplest takeaway from this write up is that the Colts lost by 26 to the Jets).

I said I’d get to the 3rd win against a playoff team, last week’s 12 point win over the Texans. That was their most impressive game of the season. Not only was it their 3rd win of the season against an opponent who finished .500 or better, but it was their 2nd win of the season by more than a touchdown. It was a convincing win against a legitimate team, something they hadn’t had to that point in the season and it couldn’t have come at a better time, one week before the playoffs. Am I more sold on them as a result? Yes. Do I still think they’re the worst playoff team in the league this year? Yes. Houston, while they are a legitimate team, is also not as good as their record, for many of the same reasons as the Colts (easy schedule, 5-0 record in close games). It was also at home and I’m still not convinced they can even hang close with a playoff team on the road.

Projected fate: Lose to Baltimore in Wild Card round

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Eagles

After an offseason full of spending, Vince Young proclaimed the 2011 Eagles the “Dream Team.” However, thanks to turnovers, struggles in close games, and general lack of continuity caused by the lockout, that “Dream Team” went just 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Heading into 2012, expectations were still high. After all, they had plenty of talent. Their continuity issues would likely be solved by a full offseason together and their record in close games and poor turnover differential were both things that are generally inconsistent on a year to year basis. Their final 4 games of the 2011 season, in which they outscored opponents 125-46, gave them plenty of hope. Many people expected them to be even as much as a Super Bowl sleeper and quarterback Michael Vick even went as far as to say that they were looking to become a “dynasty.”

The Eagles gave new meaning to the word dynasty in 2012, going 4-12. It was an everything that could go wrong did go wrong year for the Eagles. Several veterans declined faster than expected, while several others quit on Head Coach Andy Reid, and some may have even done both. Either way, they did not live up to their expected levels of talent. One such player was Michael Vick, who had his worst season as a pro in 2012, before getting injured and benched for 3rd round rookie Nick Foles. Foles showed flashes, but didn’t have much of a chance to prove himself behind an offseason line that lost three 2011 starters to injury and had other one benched for ineffectiveness. Andy Reid has been fired after 14 seasons at the helm and whoever takes over for him will take over a roster with proven veterans and some intriguing young talent, but also major questions, major decisions, and, as always, major expectations.

Quarterback

Michael Vick will almost definitely not be back at his scheduled salary of 15.5 million in 2013. Early in the season, there was a lot of speculation that Vick would be cut after the Super Bowl unless the Eagles made the playoffs. They were far from them and Vick was even benched down the stretch for Nick Foles. Meanwhile, Andy Reid, the man who brought Vick to town, has been fired and, so Vick has lost his biggest supporter. The only way he’s back is if the Eagles hire Chip Kelly, who may want Vick to run his option style offense and even only then if Vick agrees to a significant pay cut. He still seems to think of himself as a franchise quarterback so that’s unlikely.

Nick Foles will be back, but it’s unclear in what form. The early guesses seem to be that he’ll be back as the starter, after completing 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA and 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in relief of Vick. This isn’t a strong quarterback market both in the draft and in free agency and trades, so the Eagles may want to just see what they have with him. At the same time, the man who drafted him is gone and he was just a mere 3rd round pick. With a few notable exceptions, non-1st round pick quarterbacks rarely pan out in this league. There’s almost always a good reason they fall. A quarterback will be an option for the Eagles at #4 overall, but there’s a lot to be determined between now and then, including who the coach will be.

Offensive Tackle

A quarterback will be an option for the Eagles at #4, but offensive tackle Luke Joeckel is the overwhelming favorite early. Left tackle Jason Peters’ season was done before it even started, after he tore his Achilles in March, and right tackle Todd Herremans joined him on IR about halfway into the season. Demetress Bell, who was signed to replace Peters, was horrific this year and was benched for King Dunlap, who wasn’t any better. Meanwhile, Dennis Kelly took over for Herremans at right tackle and also struggled. That trio was a big part of the reason why the Eagles ranked 24th in the league in pass block efficiency.

When healthy, the Eagles were better in this area in 2011, ranking 15th in pass block efficiency, but at the very least, they need better insurance for their two tackles coming off major injuries. It might sound weird to use the 4th overall pick on just some insurance, but even if Peters and Herremans can both return as starters next season, they can still use Joeckel at tackle and move Herremans into his natural position at guard, which is also a need of theirs.

Safety

The Eagles used 2nd round picks on safeties in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011, but that didn’t work out. Jaiquawn Jarrett, drafted in 2011, only lasted a season and was cut before this season, a ridiculously short timeframe for a 2nd round pick to be with the team that drafted him. Nate Allen was better, but only because he’s still on the roster. However, he was benched down the stretch for the undersized Colt Anderson, who really struggled in run support in limited action. Meanwhile, Kurt Coleman, who replaced Jarrett next to Allen, had an even worse year this year than Allen. They ranked 84th and 85th out of 88 eligible safeties on ProFootballFocus. They need at least one new starter at the position, maybe two.

Cornerback

Remember how the Eagles’ had that great trio of cornerbacks on their “Dream Team?” Yeah, that didn’t work out. Asante Samuel was traded to the Falcons for a 7th round pick this offseason because of his age, salary, and his poor fit on the slot and in the Eagles’ new coverage scheme (he ironically had a very good year for the Falcons this year). Meanwhile, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a free agent this offseason, while Nnamdi Asomugha aged very fast. Owed 15 million dollars in 2013, his age 32 season, only 4 million of which is guaranteed, Asomugha could easily be cut this offseason. If both Rodgers-Cromartie and Asomugha return as starters for the Eagles in 2013, they could be in some trouble as the Eagles ranked 26th in the NFL against the pass this season, though their safeties deserve a lot of the blame.

Guard

Earlier I mentioned that guard was also a need for the Eagles. Danny Watkins was Andy Reid’ 2nd to last 1st round draft pick and he was probably his worst. 26 years old on draft day, the Eagles drafted him in the 1st round, well ahead of where he was projected, with the expectation that he would be one of the better players in the NFL at his position from the word go. Instead, he was one of the worst, even getting benched this season for journeyman Jake Scott, who was signed midseason. With Reid gone, this organization has no loyalty to him so he might not be back at all, let alone as a starter. If the Eagles draft Joeckel, Herremans can play guard if he and Jason Peters are both healthy, but that’s a big if.

Center

Maybe Danny Watkins can play center. Like Jason Peters and Todd Herremans, center Jason Kelce went down for the season with an injury this year, but unlike Peters and Herremans, he wasn’t even good when healthy. In fact, only 2 centers graded out worse than him in 2011. Kelce was a mere 6th round pick of the old regime who has never been a good starting center in the NFL so the new regime may opt to replace him.

Outside Linebacker

There was one good thing about this season for the Eagles: big trade acquisition DeMeco Ryans lived up to his billing and solidified the middle linebacker position. However, rookie Mychal Kendricks did not do the same outside, as only one 4-3 outside linebacker graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus. He was a mere rookie and where he was drafted should get him another shot, but they need competition. Meanwhile, Akeem Jordan and Jamar Chaney split snaps at the 3rd linebacker position, but neither played very well, so they could use a better 3rd linebacker.

Kick Returner

The Eagles ranked 28th in the NFL in kickoff return average.

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Oakland Raiders 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Raiders

For the first time in about 50 years, someone else other than Al Davis was making the personnel decisions for the Raiders last offseason, following Davis’ passing in October of 2011. However, the new front office didn’t have a lot to work with. Al Davis mortgaged the team’s future for two 8-8 seasons in 2010 and 2011. The new front office inherited a roster with mediocre talent, a team that entered the offseason already over the cap, and no draft picks before the 3rd round of compensatory picks.

You can’t blame the Raiders 4-12 season (their 10th straight non-winning season) on their new front office, but they certainly have their work cut out for them this offseason. They have needs all over the field, still lack a 2nd round pick thanks to the ridiculous Carson Palmer trade, and aren’t in the best position cap wise either.
The Raiders are 49-111 over the last 10 seasons since their Super Bowl appearance in February of 2003 and they have a roster that probably doesn’t have a single player who is among the top-5, maybe even the top-10, at his respective position (excluding special teams specialists). GM Reggie McKenzie comes from a great organization (Green Bay) and I believe he’s the right man for the job, but this isn’t going to be a 1 year fix.

Defensive End

The Raiders were definitely worse on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball, as they ranked 28th in the NFL, allowing 27.7 points per game. In fact, before shutting out the pathetic Chiefs, the Raiders had a near historically bad scoring defense. It starts up front for this team and they’ll probably take some sort of defensive lineman with the 3rd overall pick in a defensive lineman/edge rusher heavy draft. Defensive end Damontre Moore is a definitely possibility as the Raiders’ pass rush needs a lot of help.

They ranked 21st in the league in pass rush efficiency and Matt Shaughnessy was the biggest reason why. Lamarr Houston opposite him actually played very good football this season, especially down the stretch, but Shaughnessy managed just 15 total pressures on 368 pass rush snaps, good for a pathetic 4.1% pass rush rate. Only 3 players graded out as worse pass rushers at that position on ProFootballFocus than Shaughnessy and he only ranked as “high” up as 55th out of 62 eligible overall thanks to some solid play against the run. He’s a free agent anyway and should not be back as a starter.

Defensive Tackle

Star Lotulelei is the other option for the Raiders at 3, unless Jarvis Jones somehow falls. The Raiders ranked 20th against the run this season and all 3 of their top defensive tackles, Richard Seymour, Desmond Bryant, and Tommy Kelly might not be back next season. Seymour and Bryant are free agents, while Tommy Kelly is owed a non-guaranteed 6.5 million in 2013, his age 33 season, and isn’t worth even half of that. He was one of the worst defensive tackles in the league this year, ranking 74th among 85 eligible defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus.

Cornerback

Here’s what the new regime was working with: all of the cornerbacks who played a single snap for the Raiders in 2011 combined to play 13 snaps for them in 2012 (all by 2011 4th round pick Chimdi Chewka, who wasn’t on their week 1 roster). With no cap room, they were forced to bargain shop for two guys coming off injuries, Shawntae Spencer and Ronald Bartell, and that didn’t work out.

They barely played and it was up to a bunch of castoffs and youngsters to man the cornerback position. The group didn’t play well in general, en route to ranking 25th against the pass. They also converted talented safety Michael Huff to cornerback and while he played alright, he’s best served at safety long term. Phillip Adams and Brandian Ross showed some promise down the stretch in very limited action, but this is still a major need for them.

Offensive Tackle

Khalif Barnes and Willie Smith split starts 9 to 7 this season, but neither of them played well at all, allowing a combined 9 sacks, 15 hits, and 37 hurries, while committing 8 combined penalties. This is a spot that needs a new starter.

Guard

Mike Brisiel was their only big money signing last offseason and it didn’t work out. He was ProFootballFocus’ 74th ranked guard out of 81. The new regime better hope that his struggles were the result of the poorly executed zone blocking scheme put in place by recently fired offensive coordinator Greg Knapp and that better coaching will allow him to once again be a solid player because they’re kind of stuck with him for another year. On the left side, Cooper Carlisle is a free agent heading into his age 36 season this offseason. They do have Tony Bergstrom, a 2012 3rd round pick, in the mix. He struggled in very limited action this season, but may still be a future starter.

Quarterback

The Carson Palmer trade continues to be ridiculous. They won’t owe Cincinnati any more draft picks after they give them their 2nd rounder this year, but they will owe Palmer a combined 28 million in 2013 and 2014, his age 34 and 35 seasons. They’re kind of in a tough spot with him. He’s not worth that, especially not at that age, but they don’t have a better option internally nor do they have anyway of finding an immediate upgrade externally, so they’re kind of stuck with him for at least another year. However, he’s clearly not a long term solution.

Unless the new regime feels Al Davis holdover Terrelle Pryor is a potential future starter, they’ll need to find one this offseason. I don’t think they do as he was their 3rd string quarterback behind crappy Matt Leinart until week 17. Plus, after a decent showing in their week 17 finale, Head Coach Dennis Allen said that he “earned the chance for us to evaluate him some more,” but qualified that by reiterating that he was being evaluated for a chance to be the primary backup in 2013. The Ohio State product was widely viewed as a reach by people around the league when athleticism lover Al Davis took him in the 3rd round in the 2011 compensatory draft. It’s likely the new regime feels the same way about him.

Outside Linebacker

Phillip Wheeler was one of the bright spots for the Raiders defense this offseason, as he was playing for near the veteran’s minimum, but surprisingly was one of the better 4-3 outside linebackers in the league this year. The Raiders obviously want to retain him, but need to avoid overpaying him based on this one year and remember that he didn’t even get a million dollars on the open market last offseason.

If he’s not back, they’ll need to replace him in the starting lineup and even if they do retain him, this is still a need. Opposite Wheeler, 4th round rookie Miles Burris was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 4-3 outside linebacker this season. They have so many needs that he might have to be given a 2nd chance, but that’s not ideal.

Middle Linebacker

Let’s just get all of the defensive positions (besides safety). One of many early Al Davis draft pick whiffs, Rolando McClain, the 8th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, got into a major disagreement with the coaching staff this season that ended with him getting benched and suspended. Owed 4 million in 2013, it’s assumed he won’t be welcomed back. In his absence, Omar Gaither struggled in limited action in the middle.

Tight End

Brandon Myers was one of the bright spots for the Raiders this season. An afterthought coming into the season in a receiving corps that features Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore, as well as talented rookies Juron Criner and Rod Streater, Myers led the team in receiving and was 2nd in the AFC in yardage among tight ends. Not bad for someone brought in primarily for his run blocking abilities (ironically, he really struggled as a blocker, as he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated run blocking tight end). Unfortunately, he’s a free agent who will need to be retained. Like with Wheeler, they’ll need to avoid overpaying him for one year of production.

Punter

Earlier I said that the Raiders don’t have a player in the top-5 in the NFL at his respective position, but qualified it by saying I was referring to players except special teams specialists. This is because punter Shane Lechler is one of their best players. Unfortunately, like Brandon Myers and Phillip Wheeler, also among their best players, Lechler is a free agent this offseason.

Punt Returner

Phillip Adams was their primary punt returner this season, returning 25 punts, but he was terrible at it and Denarius Moore, who returned the other 9, was even worse. As a result, they ranked dead last in the NFL in punt return average by a yard and a half. They obviously need to do better than that.

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Jaguars

The Jaguars had been treading water for a few years and finally bottomed out in 2012, winning just 2 games. GM Gene Smith was fired for building this team and rightfully so. The Jaguars hadn’t had a winning season in any of their last 5 seasons, going 27-53. Smith whiffed on numerous high draft picks, didn’t get much out of the later rounds (including the selection of a punter in the 3rd round of last year’s draft), and done of his big free agent acquisition had panned out over the past few years.

The most notable and probably the most damaging of his mistakes was the selection of quarterback Blaine Gabbert with the 10th pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. The Jaguars traded up from 16 to 10 to grab him, giving up a 2nd round pick in the process, and he proved to be nothing more than a media hyped kid who looked the part, but couldn’t get it done on the field, going 5-18 in 2 seasons and playing just as poorly as that sounds.

It’s always easy to play hindsight GM, but this move looked doomed from the start as Gabbert had very average production in 2 years as a starter in the Big 12, a league known for productive quarterbacks who don’t pan out in the NFL (Robert Griffin is the only Big 12 quarterback in the NFL to ever make a playoff start). Gabbert was benched midseason for Chad Henne, before going on IR, and now has lost his biggest supporter Gene Smith. The most crucial decision for their new GM is who will be the quarterback in 2013 and beyond.

Quarterback

Blaine Gabbert barely lasted a year and a half as the Jaguars’ starting quarterback, getting benched for Chad Henne midseason, before going on season ending IR. Gabbert was a miserable 5-18 as starter and was every bit as bad as that sounds. Trading up to 10 to draft him was an ill-advised move and one that GM Gene Smith has been fired for (among other reasons).

With Smith gone, Gabbert has lost his biggest supporter and he was benched even before that. Chad Henne had some nice moments in his absence, but remained as inconsistent as he was before he got ran out of Miami. This is a bad year to need a quarterback, but it sounds like the Jaguars will go after Tim Tebow this offseason to compete with Henne and maybe Gabbert and hope that one of those can be a decent quarterback for them in 2013 and give them some hope for the future.

Outside Linebacker

There isn’t really a quarterback worth taking for them at #2, so Jarvis Jones seems like the favorite to go there and for good reason. Daryl Smith, ProFootballFocus 2nd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2011, missed almost the whole season in 2012 and is now a free agent. Julian Sanford, Russell Allen, and Kyle Bosworth played outside in his absence, but none of that trio really played that well so they need at least one new starter at the position, even if it’s a two-down run stuffer who plays defensive end on passing downs, like Jarvis Jones would.

Cornerback

Derek Cox, Chris Harris, Rashean Mathis, and William Middleton are all free agents at cornerback for the Jaguars. Mike Harris and Aaron Cook remain, but neither of them played particularly well. In fact, their cornerbacks as a whole didn’t play particularly well on the Jaguars’ 21st ranked pass defense in terms of YPA. They need help here.

Guard

Left guard was a rotating door of…well rotating doors. Undrafted rookie Mike Brewster and former 2nd round pick Eben Britton got the bulk of the playing time, but they were so bad that they both managed to rank among ProFootballFocus’ worst guards this season. Brewster ranked 79th out of 80 eligible and Britton would have ranked somewhere around there had he been eligible. Britton is a free agent and should not be retained as a starter, while Brewster is clearly not capable of being a starter either. They have 2011 3rd round pick Will Rackley coming back from an injury that cost him the whole season, but he was one of the worst guards in the league as well in 2011 and he might be moving to center.

Center

Here’s why Rackley might be moving to center. Brad Meester, a free agent heading into his age 36 season in 2013, might retire and even if he doesn’t, he is still coming off arguably his worst season as a pro and they need a replacement either immediately or in the near future. Rackley can’t be trusted as a definite starter anywhere on the line in 2013, so they need to bring in some competition. At least two interior linemen should be added, including one capable of playing center.

Defensive End

The Jaguars spent a 2nd round pick on Andre Branch in the 2012 NFL Draft and also signed Jeremy Mincey to a long term deal. Both really disappointed, especially as pass rushers, as the Jaguars ranked 31st in the NFL in pass rush efficiency. They at least need some depth. This is another reason why Jones makes so much sense for them at #2. He’d help fill their linebacker need and add some life to this pass rush.

Defensive Tackle

Tyson Alualu is another reason why Gene Smith was fired. The surprise 10th overall pick in 2010 has not so surprisingly been a bust to this point, but they’re probably stuck with him in 2013. Meanwhile, Terrance Knighton is a free agent and if he isn’t re-signed, they’ll need a 3rd defensive tackle to rotate with Alualu and CJ Mosley.

Offensive Tackle

Guy Whimper was one of the worst starting right tackles in the NFL in 2011. He was benched for Cameron Bradfield this season. He was better, but still could be upgraded. At the very least, they need to upgrade Whimper as their swing tackle as even in limited playing time this season, he still managed to grade out as one of the worst offensive tackles in the league.

Fullback

The Jaguars use talented fullback Greg Jones quite a bit, but he’s a free agent this offseason.

Kick Returner

The Jaguars had a ridiculous 11 different players return kickoffs for them this season, en route to ranking 27th in the NFL in kick return average. They could use a specialist here.

Punt Returner

Kickoff returns weren’t there only issue. They also had 6 different players return punts en route to ranking 29th in the NFL in punt return average. They might be able to kill two needs with one stone if they can find someone capable of returning both kicks and punts effectively.