New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

I actually have the Cowboys winning this division. I think they’re the best team in the NFC East. Turnovers were an issue overall for the Cowboys in 2012 as they had a turnover differential of -13 and managed just 16 takeaways. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

They should be better in that aspect this season and for that reason a better team. They actually have a good deal of talent on both sides of the ball so as long as they don’t get in their own way turnover wise or continue struggling to produce takeaways defensively, they should be an improved team in 2013. I actually like their defensive scheme change, as it’ll get top linebackers Bruce Carter and Sean Lee into positions that better fit their skill set. However, they won’t be as good to start the season, especially week 1, with injuries. Defensive tackle Jay Ratliff is out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season, while defensive end Anthony Spencer will miss at least this game with a knee injury. If the Cowboys have one weakness, it’s lack of depth. George Selvie and Nick Hayden will take their spots. Both had strong pre-seasons, but neither have had any significant impact thus far in their career.

The Giants, meanwhile, are normally a much better team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83. There’s a good chance they’ll get off to another hot start this season, only to fall back to the pack in November and December. They’re also a better road team than home team (in terms of record) and better when they’re being overlooked and under-dogged, which they are here. They’re 16-6 ATS as road dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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