Green Bay Packers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The 49ers beat the Packers in Green Bay last season as underdogs in what was a statement game for a team that would go on to prove that their 2011 season was no fluke. This season, the situation is completely flipped. The 49ers are the ones favored by more than 4 points at home, while the Packers are the ones who need a statement win. They lost both games to the 49ers last year, including an embarrassing loss to the 49ers on this same field to end their season in the post-season. Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers was caught embarrassingly unprepared, not expecting the 49ers to run nearly as much pistol and read option after they went away from that late in the season to catch any potential playoff opponents off guard.

The 49ers won’t catch the Packers off guard this time. I just feel like the Packers have been stewing on that loss all off-season and will be as prepared as they can be for the 49ers’ offense. The 49ers will still put up points. They have talent. They’re not just a gimmick team. However, I do think the Packers will turn the tables on the 49ers, much like the 49ers did last season. In recent years, we’ve seen the Ravens and Cowboys come out of the gates and beat a team that was previously unbeatable for them and that had previously ended their season in the Steelers and Giants respectively.

This game actually has some parallels to that Ravens/Steelers game, as the 49ers will be coming off a Super Bowl loss. Teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not done well week 1 in recent years, going 4-15 ATS in their last 19 instances. I’m not saying this game isn’t going to be important for the 49ers too, but I think the Packers have the situational edge here, especially with the 49ers having a visit to Seattle the following week, which could be their biggest game of the season the way Seattle blew them out in the 49ers’ last visit.

I also like getting more than 3 points with Aaron Rodgers, who is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal in his career. The Packers have lost just 6 games, including playoffs, by more than 4 points dating back to the middle of the 2009 season, a 64 game stretch. One of those losses was in overtime. If the Packers lose here, I have confidence that it’ll be a field goal game. I originally had this as a higher confidence game but the Packers will be without key nickel back Casey Hayward with injuries, while middle linebacker Brad Jones and safety Morgan Burnett will be game time decisions (though they sound like they’re expected to play).

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 24 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Green Bay +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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