New York Jets (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge.

Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS , including 12-2 ATS as non-divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more. This is a non-divisional game here so it doesn’t meet the qualifications, but we can still apply the logic. I would much rather take Tom Brady/Bill Belichick at home on a short week than Geno Smith/Rex Ryan on the road on a short week, especially considering well the Patriots do against rookie quarterbacks (14-4).

I also think this line is an overreaction to last week. The Patriots are 11.5 point favorites here at home, which is essentially what they were last week in Buffalo. I don’t think the Jets are significantly better than the Bills so this is what I call an overreaction line. Of course, the Patriots didn’t cover last week in Buffalo, but that’s where the overreaction comes from.

The Patriots didn’t look good week 1, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle, the only team in the NFL to do so this week. Teams that lose the turnover battle only win 21% of the time, so that’s impressive, even against the Bills. I don’t expect turnovers to be a huge issue going forward. I care more about the Patriots’ 431 yards and 26 first downs than their turnovers. Besides, there’s no shame in failing to cover as double digit road favorites. Going back to 2011, double digit road favorites are just 1-9 ATS, while 7.5+ road favorites are 2-16 ATS. It’ll be a different story at home.

I also expect the Patriots to have a chip on their shoulder in this game after what happened last week. Good news: Tom Brady is very good after games where he doesn’t play well, regardless of outcome. After games in which he has 16 or more incompletions, Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS, including 18-5 ATS off a win. If the Patriots weren’t missing Shane Vereen and Danny Amendola, this would be a stronger confidence pick, but we lost some line value because the line didn’t really move when those two were ruled out.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England -11.5

Confidence: Low

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