Denver Broncos (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

This line was at Denver -3 before week 1, but has moved to Denver -5 since, which doesn’t sound that significant, but it skipped over two key numbers in 3 and 4. Over 21% of NFL games are decided by either 3 or 4 points. I think that’s an overreaction. Peyton Manning obviously had the game of his life last week, throwing 7 touchdowns, but that’s all it was: the game of his life. Just like when Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards week 1 a few seasons ago, it didn’t mean he suddenly became an even better quarterback. The Broncos are still without Von Miller and Champ Bailey defensively so that side of the ball is still an issue.

The Giants, meanwhile, turned the ball over 6 times last week, but they lost by just 5. Obviously, turning the ball over 6 times is not what you want to do, but the Giants very impressively kept it within 5 despite that. Since 1989, teams are 6-142 and lose by an average of 17.6 points per game when losing the turnover battle by 5. The Giants had a chance to win late and still kept it within a touchdown. The good news for the Giants: since 1989, teams that lose the turnover battle by 5, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 in the following game.

The bad news is that Eli is going to have a much harder time throwing 450 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Broncos this week, even if the Broncos’ defense is banged up, because of simple regression to the mean, just like in Peyton Manning’s case, but it’s safe to say the Giants won lose the turnover battle by 5 again, so they’ll have a very good chance to at least keep this one close. As long as the line is higher than 4, I think the Giants are the right side. They’re a very good team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-20 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. They are 18-8 ATS as dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Denver Broncos 31 New York Giants 30

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5

Confidence Level: Low

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