Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

I have some rules for picking Thursday Night Games. I like home teams, particularly favorites, and particularly non-divisional favorites. This is a variety of reasons. I like home teams because you need all the time you can get on a short week and, if you have to travel, that cuts into that precious time. I like favorites because they tend to be more experienced, veteran teams who aren’t as fazed by the short week. And I like when a team is home favorites in a non-divisional game because teams aren’t as familiar with each other in that situation and that gives the veteran, home team an even greater edge. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-11 ATS since 1989.

The Eagles are non-divisional home favorites here, but I don’t know if that applies for a few reasons. One, these teams are as familiar with each other as non-divisional teams can be as many of the current Eagles were on the roster last season when Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid was the Head Coach in Philadelphia. Two, I don’t know that the Chiefs are necessarily less experienced than the Eagles. Three, I don’t know if this line is where it should be with the Eagles favored by 3.5.

The Eagles were exposed last week after a big week 1 with a home loss to the Chargers. Their offense was still good, though not quite as good as the week before when they were facing a terrible Washington defense and when their offense was still a complete mystery. However, their defense was atrocious. They’ve really been atrocious all year, allowing 58 first downs and forcing just 4 punts on the season, but they were able to get by week 1 because they forced 3 turnovers, but they can’t rely on having to get a takeaway to stop a drive.

Their offensive style doesn’t help their defense because, if their offensive drive isn’t successful, it doesn’t give the defense any time to rest. Fortunately, they’ve had 48 first downs to 9 punts offensively, but if the Chiefs (32 first downs allowed, 15 punts forced) can force more punts than the Redskins or Chargers, it’s going to be even worse news for their defense, which seems to allow a score every time they’re on the field. The Chiefs aren’t an incredible offense team (36 first downs, 16 punts) by any measure, but they’re not worse than Washington or San Diego and they haven’t turned it over all season.

The real wild card for this game is how the Eagles’ offensive style will be affected by the short week. Will it be harder to execute all of their no huddle stuff with less time to prepare? Will it be even tougher to stop because the defense had less time to watch time? Will it be even more effective because the defense has had less time to recover from last week? Will the offense be equally tired? Thursday Night Games are usually ugly low scoring games, which I think favors the Chiefs, their strong defense, and their conservative/turnover-avoidant offense, but I’m not confident enough to put much on that. I’d probably avoid it all together if the line were an even field goal.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5

Confidence: Low

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