Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

The Redskins aren’t making the playoffs in the loaded NFC after starting 0-2, but this wasn’t unpredictable. It’s going to take Robert Griffin a year or so to get back to where he was, just like it took Tom Brady when he tore his ACL in 2008. Mike Shanahan insists that the Redskins haven’t abandoned the read option and QB runs because of Griffin’s knee, but because of the game situation, as they’ve frequently been trailing and by a lot of points. That’s a very valid point, but it’s still very possible that Griffin isn’t comfortable running like he once did and either way, it’s probably going to remain a problem going forward.

This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL so they’re going to have to pass more than maybe they’d like. They’re starting two rookies in the secondary who are playing like it and the rest of the unit, outside of Kerrigan and Orakpo, is not much better. The Lions have the personnel to tear through their defense like Green Bay or Philadelphia did and establish another big lead. That will put the Redskins’ offense in situations where they can’t run their game plan and they probably wouldn’t be able to run it as effectively like they’d like to anyway because of Griffin’s injury situation. He’s just not as explosive as he was last year and his footwork and throwing mechanics are a mess.

The Redskins shouldn’t be favored here. The Lions are still a borderline playoff team in the loaded NFC in my eyes and one of the top-10 teams in the NFL overall. They only went 4-12 last year because of bad luck and other unsustainable things like inability to recover fumbles, turnovers going for touchdowns, poor special teams play, strength of schedule, and inability to win games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t hold a loss in Arizona against them that much because Arizona is a capable football team and their week 1 win over Minnesota remains impressive.

Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. He’ll have a big game against Washington’s poor defense if pressed into action.

The Lions are also in a situation that favors them as they’re road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 88-52 ATS in that situation since 2008 and that trend hits about 65% historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. I’m fairly confident they’ll pull off the “upset” win here in Washington this week.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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