Seattle Seahawks (3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1)

The Seahawks are a significantly better team at home than on the road and have been for years. Since 2007, they are 34-18 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points per games and going 36-15 ATS. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 16-37, getting outscored by an average of 6.4 points per game and going 21-31 ATS. However, the Seahawks are 7-6 ATS as road favorites in that time frame. They’re also are playing so well right now that I’m not picking against them as mere field goal favorites in Houston.

They started last season poorly on the road, losing in St. Louis, Arizona, Miami, and Detroit. However, they’ve won 11 of their last 13 overall dating back to the middle of last season, as Russell Wilson has completed 209 of 318 (65.7%) for 2888 yards (9.1 YPA), 25 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. They’ve outscored opponents by an average of 17.5 points per game over last 13 games overall, including 8.2 points per game on the road. They are 4-2 on the road over that stretch, including 5-1 ATS. They’re playing too well right now to bet against them unless the lines start to skyrocket. If anything, they’re underrated right now.

The Texans, meanwhile, are still pretty overrated. This is simply not the same team they were last season when they started out so well. The Texans could easily be 0-3 right now, needing comebacks to beat both the Chargers and Titans, two supposedly inferior opponents. They haven’t really played that well dating back to last season. Over their last 16 games (including playoffs), a full season’s worth, they are 10-6, but also -10 in point differential. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because of how they started last season on the road, but they should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Houston Texans 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -3

Confidence: None

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