Month: September 2013

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Steelers, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

A lot of people are really down on the Steelers right now, but I like their chances to have a bounce back year, as teams normally do after a significant win decrease. Teams that decrease by 4 wins, on average, have a win increase of about 2 the following season. Sure, they’re getting older and they lost guys like James Harrison and Mike Wallace this off-season, but neither was what they once were last season. Harrison definitely showed his age and should be replaced easily by Jason Worilds and Jarvis Jones, while Wallace was not himself at all coming off an extended holdout. He caught just 55.2% of the passes thrown his way and averaged just 13.1 yards per catch.

The Steelers should also have better injury luck, after having the 7th most injuries last season, according to adjusted games lost. Sure, they’re already without Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller in this one, but they’re still in better shape than they were last season. Remember, they were 6-3 last year before guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Ike Taylor got hurt. And that was with guys like David DeCastro and Troy Polamalu barely playing.

Polamalu’s return is the biggest deal. Troy Polamalu has missed 22 games over the past 4 years and in those 22 games, the Steelers have allowed 20.2 points per game. With him, however, they allow just 15.5 points per game. As good as their defense is, he might be their single most important defensive player when healthy because he can impact the game with his mere presence. He’s only going into his age 32 season, so he shouldn’t be done and luckily injuries haven’t sapped his abilities when he has been able to suit up. He’s still been very effective when on the field. It’s just a matter of staying healthy, which he will be for this game. That’s a huge deal.

Given that, I think this seven point line is too low. The Titans are not that good of a team. I think most people would agree with that, but the Steelers shouldn’t have much trouble beating. On top of that, the Steelers are a much better home team than road team over the past few seasons. Over the past two seasons, they outscore opponents by 9.5 points per game at home and 2.5 points per game on the road. I have some confidence that this will be a double digit win.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Tennessee Titans 12

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -7

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions and Vikings are among the teams I picked to have big win changes, the Lions in a positive direction and the Vikings in a negative direction. Part of this has to do with the fact that the two teams did the opposite last season, with the Lions going from 10 wins to 4 and the Vikings going from 3 wins to 10. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 6 win decrease is, on average, followed by a 3 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level.

However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Both teams have other signs of impending win changes. The Lions won just 4 games last year despite outgaining opponents by the 2nd most yardage in the NFL, by over 1000 yards. This is largely because they surrendered a ridiculous 70 points on return touchdowns, without scoring once in that fashion. If you take that out of the equation, the Lions would have outscored their opponents on the season (they also were terrible in close games, something that should turn around in 2013). That alone should get them to 8 wins.

That return touchdown margin should even out for 2 reasons. The first is that their special teams, which were responsible for 4 of those return touchdowns allowed, should improve. That type of thing is inconsistent on a year to year basis largely because special teams personnel is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. The Lions have changed their punter, kicker, and both of their return men. The rest of their special teams personnel should look largely different as well. I’m not worried about their special teams being as bad as they were last season and that won’t just help eliminate that 10 touchdown gap, but it’ll help give them better field position.

The second reason is that I think they’re unlikely to allow 6 return touchdowns on 33 turnovers again, a ridiculous 18.2% rate. Ordinarily, teams who turn the ball over 33 times allow an average of 2 return touchdowns off of them over the course of the season. They’re probably score at least once or twice on return touchdowns this season, something they didn’t do last season. Add in the fact that the Lions suffered the 9th most injuries in the NFL last season and recovered the 2nd lowest percentage of fumbles recovered on the ground and this is a team that will be much closer to the 10 wins they had in 2011 than the 4 wins they had in 2012.

Minnesota is in the opposite situation. They excelled in close games, winning 5 out of 6 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. As a result, they won 10 games despite a point differential of +31 and a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.8 wins. Record in games decided by a touchdown or less tends to be very inconsistent and almost always evens out in the long run. For instance, they were 2-9 in such games in 2011.

There’s no reason to believe they’ll be that bad again in 2013, but at the same time there’s no reason to believe they’ll be as good as they were in 2012 again either. In terms of DVOA, they ranked 14th in the NFL last season and most importantly for their chances of making the post-season again in 2013, they ranked 9th in the loaded NFC in DVOA. I think that’s a more accurate assessment of their 2012 season: that they were the 9th best team in the NFC, but snuck into the 6th seed because of some “clutch” close wins.

I have reason to believe they won’t even be the 9th best team in the NFC this season. Keep in mind, the teams ranked 15th-17th in DVOA were also NFC teams, as were the teams ranked 19th-20th. The difference between being the 9th and the 14th best team (Tampa Bay) in the NFC last year was not very significant and if a few more things don’t go quite the Vikings’ way, they could be one of the worst teams in the NFC.

One thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again is injuries. Last year, they were 2nd in the NFL in adjusted games lost, essentially losing the equivalent of over 2 important players for the entire season fewer than the average NFL team. That tends to be unsustainable so the Vikings should suffer more bad luck in terms of injury in 2013. They’re already without defensive tackle Kevin Williams for this game, as well as key fullback Jerome Felton. It also doesn’t help that they lost Antoine Winfield, who was an invaluable member of their secondary last season, to free agency (as a cap casualty) and then eventually retirement.

The other thing that probably won’t go quite the Vikings’ way again this season is the MVP, Adrian Peterson. Peterson played at a non-human level in 2012, coming up 9 yards short of the single season rushing record and becoming the 2nd running back since 1982 to average 6.0 yards per carry or more and carry the ball 300 or more times. It was arguably one of the best single seasons a running back has ever had. It’s a season that no running back will probably match for a long time and unfortunately for Vikings fans, that probably includes Peterson.

No running back in NFL history has ever rushed for 2000 yards twice in a career. No running back has even rushed for 1900 yards twice in a career. Among the top-16 in single season rushing yard totals there are 15 unique names. Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and OJ Simpson have both rushed for 1800 yards more than once in their career, but only Dickerson did it in back-to-back seasons and he was 23-24 in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. Peterson is going to try to do it when he’s 27-28.

Furthermore, of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. In fact, the average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to get hurt and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Finally, only 5 players in NFL history have had 3500 rushing yards in a 2-year stretch and only 2 have had 3600.

Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards. I think there’s a decent chance that Peterson gets to 1662 rushing yards, which would give him the 2nd most rushing yards all-time in a two year span, but either way there’s a very good chance Peterson is rushing for at least 400 yards fewer this season. Plus, remember, in Peterson’s 6 year NFL career, he’s rushed for fewer than 1400 yards 4 times. Last season was the best of his career, but he didn’t suddenly become a significantly better player.

Christian Ponder largely was a game manager for the Vikings last season, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt, hitching his wagon to Peterson and having him drag him into the post-season. How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. That’s why Peterson got my support for MVP, even though it’s near impossible for a running back to truly be the most valuable player in today’s NFL. Peterson was last year. He probably won’t be this year.

However, without Peterson rushing for an absurd amount of yardage this season, the Vikings could be in a lot of trouble if Ponder doesn’t improve statistically. Ponder could be a better quarterback going into his 3rd season in the NFL, but he was a very NFL ready quarterback coming out of Florida State. He was never a quarterback who had a lot of issues with the non-physical parts of the game (touch, accuracy, decision making, reading defenses), but he’s physically limited and that’s not something that really improves as your career goes along. He’s averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt throughout his career and considering how much he struggled last season without Percy Harvin, he could be even less than that this season. Harvin went down for the year midway through the 9th game of the season and Ponder averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in games 9-16 last season. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson come in, but the former has been very injury prone of late, while the later might not even start as a rookie.

The Vikings could easily be this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer and the Lions could easily be this year’s team that does the opposite. Unfortunately, the odds makers seems to know this as well, which is why Detroit’s over/under win total is actually higher than the Vikings’ and why this line is Detroit -5. It takes away a lot of the line value here, but it also re-affirms my stances on these two teams. The odds makers usually know what they’re doing. It’s not a big play, but the Lions should win this game by at least a touchdown so I will make a play on them.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

This is the annual week 1 absurdly late game. In order to kick off the football season, ESPN crams two NFL games into Monday Night Football Week 1. The second game usually starts after 10 PM ET and features West Coast teams, which, recently, has meant East Coasters have to watch crappy teams play football until well past Midnight. Last year’s San Diego/Oakland game was one of the worst games of the season, a game in which the Raiders botched 3 separate long snaps. The year before featured a riveting Kyle Orton/Jason Campbell battle.

This year, the Chargers are featured again, but they will be facing a Texan team that comes from 2 time zones over. That matters to this analysis. The Chargers will be playing this game from 7:15 until after 10 their time, but it’ll run until past Midnight on the internal clocks of the Texans. They could have lower energy than normal late in this game for that reason and that puts them at a disadvantage.

The Texans are an overrated team, as well. The Chargers aren’t good, but, considering the circumstances, I don’t think the Texans deserve to be favored by more than a field goal here on the road. They were much worse last season than their 12-4 record would suggest. They had a less than stellar scoring differential, going +85 on the season, including +9 in their final 11 games, +2 if you include the playoffs. Overall, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 10 wins, despite a weak schedule. They ranked 11th in the NFL in DVOA, 19th in weighted DVOA (weighs later games more heavily). They also were very reliant on winning the turnover battle, with a +12 turnover margin, with 29 takeaways and 17 turnovers.

That tends to be unsustainable on a year-to-year basis. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

Turnovers and takeaways are incredibly hard to predict on year-to-year and even a game-to-game basis (teams with a turnover differential of +4 or higher and teams with a turnover differential of -4 or lower both average a turnover differential of +0.0 in the following game). The Texans were actually just +2 in interceptions, but were +10 in fumbles, thanks to a fluky 64.1% fumble recovery rate. It’s not hard to see how the Texans’ turnover margin will even out in 2013. If it weren’t for this unsustainable turnover margin, the Texans would have been even worse in 2012.

Of course, they were off to a great start last year, before Brian Cushing got hurt. Without him, they ranked 18th in opponents’ scoring and 13th in opponents’ yardage, after starting the season as the top yardage and scoring defense in the NFL. They were 5-0 with him, including a win in Denver. The year before they were also a “what could have been team.”

They won 10 games in 2011 despite having their starting quarterback and top receiver only play together in 4 games. Before Matt Schaub went down with injury and missed the final 6 games of the season, the Texans were 7-3, scoring 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6, which would have been 5th and 3rd respectively over the course of the season. Those numbers translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.2 wins, which would have been second in the league that season. And all of that was despite Andre Johnson playing in just 4 of those 10 games, and Arian Foster missing 3 of those games.

Even after Schaub got hurt, they finished 10-6, going 3-3 without him and a 4th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis, winning a playoff game. I could say that the Texans will be one of the best teams in the NFL this season now that Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Brian Cushing are all healthy at the same time (it’s happened just 6 times in the last 2 seasons, all wins), but the NFL is messy. Nothing will ever be a perfect world. I’ve given up projecting them as that top, top level team. They’ll never be completely healthy and it’s not like they’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, ranking 8th in adjusted games lost in 2012 and 11th in 2011.

They just don’t seem to be able to take hits and keep on going and it’s very possible they’re just an above average team which flashes elite ability in the perfect scenario. This game isn’t a perfect scenario either as Antonio Smith, a talented starting defensive end, is out for this game with suspension. Furthermore, Brian Cushing might not be quite his usual self to start the season. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Chargers, I’m somewhat confident in their ability to cover.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Houston Texans 17 San Diego Chargers 16

Pick against spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Low

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

I actually have the Cowboys winning this division. I think they’re the best team in the NFC East. Turnovers were an issue overall for the Cowboys in 2012 as they had a turnover differential of -13 and managed just 16 takeaways. That tends to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, however. For example, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers on average turn the ball over 25.5 times the following season, while teams that turn the ball over 35 or more times turn the ball over 28.1 times the following season. Teams with 20 or fewer takeaways take the ball away an average of 25.3 times the following season, while teams with 35 or more takeaways take the ball away an average of 27.3 times the following season. Teams with a turnover differential of +15 or higher have a turnover differential of +3.6 the following season, while teams with a turnover differential of -15 have a turnover differential of +1.5 the following season.

They should be better in that aspect this season and for that reason a better team. They actually have a good deal of talent on both sides of the ball so as long as they don’t get in their own way turnover wise or continue struggling to produce takeaways defensively, they should be an improved team in 2013. I actually like their defensive scheme change, as it’ll get top linebackers Bruce Carter and Sean Lee into positions that better fit their skill set. However, they won’t be as good to start the season, especially week 1, with injuries. Defensive tackle Jay Ratliff is out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season, while defensive end Anthony Spencer will miss at least this game with a knee injury. If the Cowboys have one weakness, it’s lack of depth. George Selvie and Nick Hayden will take their spots. Both had strong pre-seasons, but neither have had any significant impact thus far in their career.

The Giants, meanwhile, are normally a much better team in the first half of the season. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83. There’s a good chance they’ll get off to another hot start this season, only to fall back to the pack in November and December. They’re also a better road team than home team (in terms of record) and better when they’re being overlooked and under-dogged, which they are here. They’re 16-6 ATS as road dogs before week 9 since 2004.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

The Raiders suck. Like they’re really, really bad. They won 4 games last year and appear a long shot to even match that total this year. For one thing, they have over 50 million in dead money on their cap. Of their 10 biggest cap numbers this season, 6 are dead money cap casualties who are on other teams, 1 is a backup quarterback, and another is a kicker. They had a first round pick this off-season, for the first time since 2010, but for various reasons had to cut 2010 middle linebacker Rolando McClain, 2009 1st round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey, and 2006 1st round pick Michael Huff this off-season, the latter of whom was actually still an asset for this team, but was a necessary cut for cap reasons.

Prior to drafting DJ Hayden 12th overall this past April, they had just two former 1st round picks on their roster, one of whom is a kicker. Hayden himself could be very behind the 8-ball as a rookie, as he wasn’t cleared for contact until late August after off-season surgery to repair scar tissue in his abdomen. Their cap situation also caused them to lose top defensive lineman Desmond Bryant, top linebacker Philip Wheeler, and leading receiver Brandon Myers this off-season.

On top of all of this, the Raiders will be without Jared Veldheer, one of their very few remaining good players, early in the season with a torn triceps. 2nd round rookie Menelik Watson, who has never played left tackle in his live, is supposed to play in his absence, but he’s dealing with a knee injury of his own. If he can’t go in this one, the Raiders would move Khalif Barnes to left tackle, which would be disastrous considering how overmatched he’s been on the easier right side over the past few seasons. Tony Pashos, a 33-year-old who didn’t play last season, would be the right tackle in that scenario.

The Raiders attempted to plug some holes with cheap signings of Vance Walker, Nick Roach, Kevin Burnett, and Charles Woodson defensively, but they’re, any way you look at it, a worse team than they were last season. They are going to be awful this season. However, the Colts had a lot of trouble beating awful teams last season. They only won 2 games all last season by more than a touchdown and that includes close calls against Tennessee, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Detroit, among others.

The good news for the Colts is the Raiders are worse than any team they played last season, including Kansas City. The Colts also should be a better team this season, though it probably won’t show in their win-loss record. Andrew Luck is going into his 2nd year in the league and should be better in Pep Hamilton’s system, which will resemble the one Luck ran at Stanford under Hamilton, rather than Bruce Arians’ system which had Luck throw 20+ yards downfield more than any quarterback in the NFL last season. He also should have a better offensive line, after being pressured more often than any quarterback in the NFL last season.

However, for all the money they spent this off-season, I don’t know that their supporting cast is that much better than it was last season, especially on defense. If this line were still -7 like it were before the pre-season, I could take the Colts, but as long as it’s -10, I can’t take the Colts, especially with all of the public action on them. They don’t have a history of blowing teams out and this could very well be week 1’s meaningless garbage touchdown for a backdoor cover that causes everyone to lose a ton of money game. That being said, I can’t put any money on the Raiders, even if they were -20. Indianapolis is also my Survivor Pick of the week. I’d be shocked if they lost this game.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Oakland Raiders 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Oakland +10

Confidence Level: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Panthers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

I think the Seahawks are a little overrated because of how good their home field advantage is. Fortunately, as long as they’re home, they are the toughest team in the NFL to beat, but if they have to go on the road, they’re definitely beatable. Considering their home/road disparity goes back so far, I think they’re currently an above average team that looks elite at home, but show its true colors on the road. Going back to 2007, they are 15-37 on the road, getting outscored by 6.63 points per game, and 32-18 at home, outscoring opponents by 6.32 points per game.

Last season, they went 3-5 on the road, including losses in St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit, all sub-.500 teams a year ago. In the post-season, they were down 14-0 in Washington before Robert Griffin got hurt and they lost the following week in Atlanta.  At home, they outscored opponents by 18.5 points per game (30.4-11.9) last season, beating 4 eventual playoff teams, and on the road, they outscored opponents by just 2.3 points per game (21.1-18.8), despite playing just one playoff team in that stretch (San Francisco).

The good news for the Seahawks is they got better as last season went on, both at home and away, thanks to the improvement of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson. I think that has a good chance of carrying over in 2013, at least somewhat. However, The Panthers are an underrated team that is going to be a very tough team for the Seahawks to beat in Carolina, especially on the East Coast at 1 PM ET, a situation the Seahawks haven’t won in since 1998.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. Newton was noticeably better in the 2nd half of the season, completing 58.4% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all while rushing for 394 yards and 4 touchdowns. That was opposed to 57.0% completion, 8.1 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with 347 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in the 1st half of the season.

Heading into his 3rd season in the league, it’s very possible he’s turned a corner, which would be a very good thing for this team. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. At the very least, Newton’s early sophomore slump should be a thing of the past and this should be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL.

The other big turnaround for this team was an improved defense. In their final 12 games of the season, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. That was opposed to 27.3 points per game allowed in the first 4 games of the season and 26.8 points per game allowed in 2011. The obvious change from week 4 to week 5 was moving eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year Luke Kueckly to middle linebacker and giving him an every down linebacker role, but you can’t give him all the credit.

Young players like Greg Hardy also broke out as the season went on defensively. He and Charles Johnson give them one of the best 4-3 defensive end duos in the NFL, with Hardy moving to defensive tackle on passing downs and talented reserve end Frank Alexander coming in to allow the Panthers to play 3 defensive ends at once. This season, Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short come in as rookies with Dwan Edwards at defensive tackle and give the Panthers one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

At linebacker, they have Jon Beason back healthy with Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Their secondary is a problem, but you can mask a mediocre secondary with good front 7 play. The 49ers have been doing it for 2 seasons and the Panthers did it to end last season. For those reasons, I like their chances of carrying their strong finish into 2013. As long as I’m getting more than a field goal with the Panthers, this is my Pick of the Week, especially since the public continue to put all their money on Seattle.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Carolina Panthers 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Carolina +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Top-200 NFL Players: 1-20

stevenlourie Top-200 2013, Uncategorized

1-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 101-120 121-140 141-160 161-180 181-200

With 10 days left until the regular season opener, this 10-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

1. DE JJ Watt (Houston)

At 23 years of age in his 2nd year in the league, playing with torn ligaments in his elbow, Watt had what defensive coordinator Wade Phillips called the “absolute best” season by any defensive lineman in NFL history. Phillips would know, considering he’s been in the NFL since 1976 and has coached DeMarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Clyde Simmons, who, along with Watt, have combined for 6 of the 13 highest single season sack totals in NFL history.

I haven’t seen as much football as Phillips, but I’m inclined to agree with him. While his 21 sacks don’t break the single season record, Watt had those 21 sacks despite being an interior defensive lineman, having to fight through more junk to get to the quarterback. You can’t say that about any other player who has ever had as many sacks in a season as Watt did last season. He also had an NFL record 15 batted passes and played the run incredibly well. His 57 solo tackles not only led his position and not only led all defensive linemen in 2012, but they came for an average gain of 0.16 yards by the ball carrier, best in the NFL among players at any position.

I can definitely understand why Phillips sees it as the greatest season a defensive lineman has ever had. He won the Defensive Player of the Year, winning 49 of 50 votes, and he should be the heavy early favorite to repeat in 2013, with another year of experience and a healthy elbow. He’d join Lawrence Taylor, Joe Greene, Mike Singletary, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Ray Lewis as the only players to win the award multiple times and join Taylor as the only one to win it in back-to-back seasons (he did it in a strike shortened season). At the end of the day, he could surpass Lawrence Taylor’s record 3 Defensive Player of the Year awards. Watt might not improve on 2012, but that will only be because it’s tough to improve on the best. There’s no non-quarterback I’d rather start a team with, hands down and he deserves to be tops in this list.

2. DT Geno Atkins (Cincinnati)

If it weren’t for JJ Watt, Geno Atkins would be getting a lot more attention. A 4-3 defensive tackle, Atkins was almost as good as Watt in all aspects of the game last year, recording 16 sacks in the process, an incredible number for an interior defensive lineman. While Watt pretty much broke ProFootballFocus’ rating system by recording the first ever 100+ rating in its history, Atkins had the second best grade in its history. He’s also been doing it longer as the 2010 4th round pick has been great for 3 years, even as a rookie when he wasn’t yet a starter. Going into a contract year, he signed a 5-year, 55 million dollar extension this off-season and he’s one of the few players in the NFL who is a bargain at that rate. He’s a defensive end in a defensive tackle’s body at 6-1 303.

3. OLB Von Miller (Denver)

I might have put Von Miller 2nd if it weren’t for his recent 6 game suspension. That’s concerning both because he’ll miss 6 games, but also because he’s probably a mistake away from a yearlong suspension. Still, he’s supremely talented and will be missed big time by the Broncos when he’s gone. He’s had 31 sacks in his first 2 seasons in the league, purely as a sub package rusher and, in base packages, he’s as good as any linebacker against the run and also holds his own in coverage. He was the only player to steal a vote away from JJ Watt for Defensive Player of the Year last year and rightfully so.

4. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

Adrian Peterson would be #1 on this list if I were more confident he could even come close to what he did last year in 2013. Of the 28 other players to ever rush for 1700+ yards in a season, only 3 exceeded their rushing total the following season. The average 1700+ yard rusher rushed for 615 fewer yards the following season. Sure, some of them got seriously hurt, but it’s not like it would be impossible for Peterson to do so and even when you take out the 4 players who didn’t make it to 200 carries the following season, they still averaged 474 yards fewer the following season. On top of that, those players also averaged 7/10ths of a yard fewer per carry, going from 5.1 yards per carry to 4.4 yards per carry. Now, Peterson is definitely not going to have a bad year. In fact, he’s still my pick to lead the NFL in rushing, but you can lead the NFL in rushing with 1600 yards. He’s the top ranked running back and offensive player though. He’s earned that.

5. QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 45 games, including playoffs, Aaron Rodgers has completed 1026 of 1510 (67.9%) for 12738 yards (8.4 YPA), 122 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 901 yards and 8 touchdowns on 175 carries in those games. He’s gone 35-10 in those 45 games, winning an MVP and a Super Bowl in the process. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in interception rate and QB rating to boot. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL and will continue to keep this team in Super Bowl contention as long as he’s under center.

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6. DE Cameron Wake (Miami)

Cameron Wake is the highest ranked of actually a surprisingly high amount of undrafted free agents on this list, but how he slipped through the cracks is the most baffling. Wake went to Penn State of all places, where he was a linebacker at Linebacker U, though he’d move to defensive end at times in passing situations. Wake was a final cut of the Giants in 2005 as an undrafted free agent and eventually ended up in Canada, where he converted to defensive end and had an absurd 39 sacks in 2 years and won Defensive Player of the Year twice. That got him back on the NFL’s radar and he signed with the Dolphins before the 2009 season. Wake was incredible as a reserve that season, recording a sack, hit or hurries on a ridiculous 24.6% of his pass rush snaps. He turned that into a starting job in 2010 and has emerged as arguably the best edge rusher in the NFL over the past 3 seasons as a starter, playing both rush linebacker and defensive end in the process, with 42 sacks in 3 seasons, including a career high 17 in 2012. On top of that, he’s excellent against the run.

7. MLB Patrick Willis (San Francisco)

I’ve said this a bunch of times throughout this series, but there isn’t a middle linebacker in the NFL that compares to Patrick Willis. You could even argue he deserves to be higher on this list for that reason. He’s been the best middle linebacker in the NFL pretty much 6 years running, dating back to his Defensive Rookie of the Year season as the 11th overall pick in 2007. He’s made both the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro team in each of his first 6 years in the league and, at age 28, he could conceivably do that over the next 6 seasons as well. I don’t like to call players future Hall of Famers before they’re 30, but Willis is a Future Hall of Famer, perhaps on the 1st ballot.

8. WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s single season receiving yardage record last season, shattering it you could even say, as his 1964 receiving yards were over 100 more than Rice’s 1848 in his 1995 season. He actually surpassed Rice’s mark in week 16. However, it’s not a fair comparison. It’s easier to get open as a receiver nowadays with all of the rule changes. Also, Rice’s 49ers passed 644 times, as opposed to 740 times for the 2012 Lions. Johnson was actually only 4th in the NFL in yards per route run last season, tied with Michael Crabtee, behind Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon (who ran a lot fewer routes), and Brandon Marshall. He’s still the best wide receiver in the league though. The 96 catches for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns he had in 2011 seem like a statistical floor for him at this point.

9. G Evan Mathis (Philadelphia)

Of all the top-10 players on this list, Evan Mathis is by far the most overlooked, even by his fellow players, who didn’t even vote him to the top-100 players. He’s also never made a Pro-Bowl or an All-Pro team. However, he’s been by far the best guard in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, allowing 1 sack total (the only sack the 2005 3rd round pick has allowed in 53 career starts) and dominating in the run game. Part of the reason why he’s overlooked is because he wasn’t really much before coming to the Eagles in 2011, a solid starter in 2009 for the Bengals and a reserve in 2010. He played so well on a one year deal in 2011 that he was given a 5-year, 25.5 million dollar deal last off-season and he played so well in a repeat season in 2012 that now that deal even looks like a bargain.

10. QB Tom Brady (New England)

Even going into his age 36 season, Brady himself probably won’t significantly decline this season. He’s shown no significant signs of decline. Last season was the worst of his past 3 seasons as he “only” completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, but those were still all at or above his career averages. Over the past 3 seasons, he’s completed 64.7% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 109 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. His supporting cast could hurt him a little, but at the same time, no one has done the next man up thing in the receiving corps better than Brady. Remember, from 2001-2007 Brady had 5 different leading receivers in 7 years and only Randy Moss, who the Patriots got for a mere 4th round pick, ever did anything of note before or after joining forces with Tom Brady. Aside from Moss, those receivers were Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, David Givens, and Deion Branch.

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11. OT Duane Brown (Houston)

I’m giving Duane Brown the edge as the top left tackle in the NFL, as he’s been better than Joe Thomas over the past 2 seasons and more consistent than Joe Staley. A great zone run blocker in Houston’s system, Duane Brown is even better in pass protection. Sacks aren’t a tell all stat, but from week 16 of the 2010 season to week 7 of the 2012 season, he didn’t allow a single sack, 27 games including playoffs.

12. CB Richard Sherman (Seattle)

Richard Sherman/Darrelle Revis is the debate for the top cornerback in the NFL. I have Sherman a little bit higher only because he’s not coming off a torn ACL like Revis. Revis had been playing better for longer than Sherman before getting hurt so he has the higher upside of the two, when talking about their 2013 expectations, but few things are safer than a 25-year-old cornerback who has allowed less than 50% completion over his first two years in the league and 5 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

13. C Nick Mangold (NY Jets)

Since being drafted in the 1st round out of Ohio State in 2006, Nick Mangold has been the best center in the NFL. He didn’t have quite as good a season as he’s used to in 2012. Minnesota’s John Sullivan was better, but I’m giving Mangold the nod for consistent excellence. When you spend a 1st round pick on a center, you have to hope he turns out like Mangold because it’s just not worth the pick if you’re just getting a solid starting center. Mangold looks on his way to the Hall of Fame. It’s a shame he’s stuck on the Jets right now.

14. CB Darrelle Revis (Tampa Bay)

Though he’s coming off a torn ACL, Darrelle Revis has allowed 153 completions on 371 attempts (41.2%) for 1946 yards (5.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, while deflecting 62 passes, and committing 13 penalties over the past 5 seasons. That’s a QB rating allowed of 45.3. No one else even comes close to that and he does it despite shadowing the opponent’s #1 wide receiver on every snap, something that most #1 cornerbacks don’t do anymore. Apologies to Richard Sherman, but he’s the only cornerback in the NFL who, when healthy, you can legitimately build your defense around. Sherman is a safer bet at a younger age with less of an injury history, but at his best, no one is better than Revis. Players like him are almost never available and, when they are, they are usually sold for a price that doesn’t meet their value because that’s simply not possible. It was a perfect storm that led to the Jets trading him, the cornerback equivalent of Peyton Manning being available last off-season.

15. C John Sullivan (Minnesota)

As I said in Mangold’s write up, John Sullivan actually outplayed him last season. Sullivan has actually been one of the top centers in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, doing his best work in 2012, when he was a huge part of Adrian Peterson’s 2000+ yard season. Peterson averaged 6.4 yards per carry running between the center and right guard last season, even higher than his season average of 6.0 yards per carry. On top of that, he had just 12 combined allowed sacks, hits, hurries, and committed penalties, tied for best in the NFL among centers.

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16. DT Kyle Williams (Buffalo)

In 2010 and 2012, Kyle Williams was one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, with an injury plagued 2011 season in between. In 2010, he was a nose tackle who dominated on the nose in base packages, but also led the defensive line in snaps played and was very productive as a penetrating pass rusher in sub packages and obvious passing situations. In 2012, he was a defensive tackle in a 4-3 and appeared to be a better fit for that position, though he can play anywhere. This year, the Bills are moving to a hybrid scheme and he’ll play some nose tackle, some 4-3 defensive tackle, and some 5-technique defensive end. There might not be a more versatile high level defensive lineman in the NFL.

17. S Eric Weddle (San Diego)

This is the first and only Charger on the list, making the Chargers the only team in the NFL with just 1 player in the top-200. They’re better than teams like Oakland and Jacksonville who only have 2 because they have better quarterback play and because their top-200 player is ranked much higher than anyone on the Raiders or Jaguars, but it just speaks to the lack of talent in San Diego as a result of years of poor drafting by AJ Smith and poor player development by Norv Turner and his coaching staff. Weddle, however, is the best safety in the game.

18. QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Peyton Manning surprised everyone last season, coming off of 4 neck surgeries, with a completely different team after being cut, completing 68.6% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 37 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, all better than his career average. In terms of QB rating, it was the 2nd best season of his career, behind only his then-record-setting 2004 season, in which he threw 49 touchdowns. It’s possible that the addition of Welker can lead to an even further improved Manning, but I don’t find it that likely that Manning will surpass the arguably 2nd best season of his career in what is his age 37 season. It’s more likely that regression to the mean and normal diminishing physical skills for a 37-year-old who has recently had a serious injury lead to an inferior 2013 as compared to 2012 for Manning. Sure, Manning’s mean is still one of the best in the game, but I don’t buy that he’ll be improved over last season just because of Wes Welker’s presence on the slot. Aaron Rodgers’ and Tom Brady’s post-season success is the primary factor that puts than above Manning.

19. WR AJ Green (Cincinnati)

Since 2005, 28 receivers have gone in the 1st round. They’ve averaged 40 catches for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns per season. As a rookie in 2011, AJ Green 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns, the most receiving yards of any 1st round receiver in that timeframe. In 2012, he improved on that, catching 97 passes for 1350 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s done all of this before his 3rd year in the league, when receivers normally break out and, going into only his age 25 season, he should continue to get even better. He’s the best receiver this side of Calvin Johnson.

20. OT Joe Staley (San Francisco)

I mentioned Joe Staley in Joe Thomas’ write up. He was probably the best left tackle in the game last season, but he’s not my highest ranked left tackle because he’s only really had one season on that level. In 2011, his first Pro-Bowl season, he wasn’t really that great yet. I have one left tackle ahead of him because of his recent consistency and you can argue that Thomas is deserves to be ahead of him because of his longer term consistency.

Go on to 21-40

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Top-200 NFL Players: 21-40

stevenlourie Top-200 2013, Uncategorized

1-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 101-120 121-140 141-160 161-180 181-200

With 10 days left until the regular season opener, this 10-part series counts down the top-200 players in the NFL. 200 might sounds like a lot, but with 53 players on 32 teams’ rosters, that’s 1696 players. Count guys on the practice squad, guys on the PUP or the IR, and guys who are free agents, but still on teams’ radar. That’s probably 2000 players. These guys are the top 10%. Positional value doesn’t matter because if it did, this list would be too quarterback heavy.

21. OLB Clay Matthews (Green Bay)

All Clay Matthews has done since being drafted in 2009 is show himself to be a blue chip rush linebacker, getting after the quarterback at a high rate, but also playing the run well and dropping into coverage and covering a tight end when needed. He is credited with 42.5 sacks in 4 seasons and even his down 2011 season, in which he had just 6 sacks, is deceiving, as he was double and triple teamed more than maybe any edge rusher in the NFL, with no one even remotely of note opposite him. He also had a good amount of hits and hurries, despite that low sack total. Looking at his career numbers shows that 6-sack total to be an outlier anyway. He received a 5-year, 66 million dollar deal this off-season, going into his contract year, and he’s one of the few non-quarterbacks in the NFL deserving of that kind of money.

22. OT Joe Thomas (Cleveland)

I’ll get into this more when I talk about a couple of other left tackles in the top-20, but I found it hard to sort out the top of the left tackle list. Joe Thomas has been the best pass protecting left tackle in the NFL since being drafted in 3rd overall in 2007, but he’s not a great run blocker. Duane Brown has been the best overall left tackle in the NFL over the past 2 seasons combined, but I don’t think he was the best in either season, as that honor would go to Jason Peters in 2011 and probably Joe Staley in 2012. Jason Peters is lower on this list because he’s older and coming off a serious injury, but Staley has a very strong claim to being the best left tackle in the game. I’m nitpicking and putting Thomas just outside of the top-20, in favor of two guys who have been better all-around than him over the past 2 seasons.

23. TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

The default top tight end in the NFL with Rob Gronkowski being a serious medical question, Jimmy Graham isn’t anywhere near the blocker Gronk is, but he’s just as good as a receiver. You can nitpick his blocking all you want, but his 2292 receiving yards over the past 2 seasons are the most in any two consecutive seasons ever by a tight end. Only 27 in November, Graham will probably be the highest paid tight end in NFL history when he gets paid and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next off-season (though the Saints can franchise him very cheaply, unless he appeals to be tagged as a wide receiver). The receiving numbers he’s put up over the past 2 years as impressive for a wide out, let alone for a tight end. He’ll get upwards of 10+ million per year.

24. DE Calais Campbell (Arizona)

Then a freakishly athletic 6-8 290 pounder, Calais Campbell only fell into the 2nd round in 2008 because of a down final season at the University of Miami and a disappointing Combine, during which he “only” ran a 5.00 40 because he was out of shape. However, Campbell has grown into his frame even more and the 6-8 305 pounder has had no issue with motivation in the NFL, blossoming into one of the top 5-technique defensive ends in the NFL. He’s had 28 sacks in the last 4 seasons, while playing the run extremely well, and has not become complacent, even after signing a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract last off-season. He’s also swatted 18 passes at the line of scrimmage in the past 2 seasons, the most of anyone not named JJ Watt.

25. DT Gerald McCoy (Tampa Bay)

In his first two years in the league in 2010 and 2011, McCoy, the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, played very well when on the field, but missed 13 games with injury. In those 13 games, the Buccaneers went 3-10 and allowed 30.2 points per game. In the 19 games he played, they went 11-8 and allowed 22.1 points per game. That wasn’t all him, but a lot of it was. He stayed healthy for the entirety of the 2012 season and had a better season than anyone not named Geno Atkins, better than Ndamukong Suh, drafted one spot higher than him, has ever had. As a result, the Buccaneers allowed just 24.6 points per game and went 7-9. I’ll need to see him stay healthy again, but I have no doubt that he’ll have another similar season in 2013 if he does.

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26. S Jairus Byrd (Buffalo)

Byrd would be in the top-20 here, as the best deep safety in the game, but he’s dealing with plantar fasciitis which will either limit him or cause him to miss games this season. The problem crept up after he returned to practice from an extended holdout after being franchise tagged this off-season, yet another player to get hurt after a holdout and/or not play as well following a holdout. That being said, he deserves every cent of the money he was demanding (more than the 5 year, 41.25 million dollar deal Dashon Goldson got from Tampa Bay). He and San Diego’s Eric Weddle have a chance to be this decade’s Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu (though on more obscure franchises) and I have no idea why the talent scrapped Bills don’t want to commit long-term to him.

27. RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

I can’t shake the feeling that Jamaal Charles is a top-3 back in the NFL in terms of talent. Yes, he’s had injury issues and has never been trusted by a Head Coach to carry the load, but remember who he’s had as Head Coaches, Herm Edwards, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel. Sure, he’s had just 784 carries in 5 seasons, but his career 5.8 YPC is MOST ALL-TIME of back with more than 500 career carries and the guys directly below him are either Bo Jackson or wore leather helmets. Why do his coaches never give him the ball?! You might not think things will get better with Andy Reid coming in, but, while Andy Reid hates to run the football, when he does, he’s faithful to one back and his playbook has enough passes to backs that Charles should be able to surpass his career high of 320 touches in a season. He’s my pick to lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage, like Brian Westbrook did under Reid in 2007.

28. C Chris Myers (Houston)

Once the top center in the NFL this side of Nick Mangold, Chris Myers is outside of the top-20 for two reasons. The first is that he’s coming off of a bit of a down season, which is a concern going into his age 32 season. He was still very good, but slipped enough that you can use his 2012 season to nitpick him, which, at this stage of the list, you really have to do. The second nitpick is you have to wonder how much of his success can be attributed to the Texans’ zone blocking scheme. Myers was just a 6th round pick in 2005 and didn’t have a ton of success before arriving in Houston.

29. DE Muhammad Wilkerson (NY Jets)

His breakout year was overshadowed by the play of JJ Watt and the Jets’ general ineptitude, but any other year, Muhammad Wilkerson might have been the best 5-technique in the game. A fellow 2011 1st round pick like Watt, Wilkerson showed all of that ability as a rookie, particularly in the run game at 6-4 315, where his run stop percentage of 10.9% was 3rd only to Watt and Justin Smith. He was also a very solid pass rusher when needed. I’ll need to see it again from him, but he has 1st round talent so I have little doubt he can continue this type of strong play. Not yet even 24, Wilkerson is going to get big bucks whenever he gets paid. He’ll be eligible for an extension next off-season, going into a 2014 contract year.

30. MLB Derrick Johnson (Kansas City)

I’ve mentioned several times throughout this series that no middle linebacker rivals Patrick Willis. Derrick Johnson is the only one who comes close. A 2005 1st round pick, Johnson actually looked like a bust early in his career, but you can credit two things for his emergence as an All-Pro caliber linebacker over the past 3 seasons. The first was the Chiefs’ switch to a 3-4, which allowed Johnson to move inside to middle linebacker, rather than playing 4-3 outside linebacker. The second was being put in Todd Haley’s doghouse in 2009, which seemed to be the wakeup call he needed. He would sign a 5-year, 34 million dollar extension the following season and even still appears to be drastically underpaid, compared to what other top middle linebackers have gotten on their 2nd contracts over the past few seasons.

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31. TE Rob Gronkowski (New England)

He’d be a top-10 player on this list easily, if he wasn’t coming off 5 surgeries in a calendar year stretch. He’s still expected to be ready to go fairly early this season, possibly as early as week 2 or 3, so we’ll see what kind of player comes back. His injury history is concerning, especially considering he has a history of back problems dating back to his days at the University of Arizona that dropped him in the draft. However, he’s so good when healthy that even Tom Brady misses him. While Brady actually played better WITHOUT Aaron Hernandez last year, he played noticeably worse without Gronkowski last year. Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while leading the offense to 35.8 points per game and a 7-3 record in the 10 games where Gronk played and wasn’t limited. In his other 8 games, he completed just 58.7% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading the offense to 31.6 points per game and a 6-2 record. He’s scored an absurd 36 times in his last 35 games and his 2011 numbers (90/1327/17) would be great for a receiver, let alone a 6-6 265 tight end who blocks like a 6th offensive lineman.

32. G Marshal Yanda (Baltimore)

Versatility is what gives Marshal Yanda the edge over a bunch of other talented guards below him. Not only he has been arguably the best guard in the NFL this side of Evan Mathis over the past 2 seasons, but he was a phenomenal right tackle in 2010, as well, arguably the best in the game. It has to be very nice for the Ravens to know that they can count on him to play well there if needed, but his best position is right guard.

33. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

The nit I pick with Brees to keep him outside of the top-20: his lack of road success. Brees owes some of his recent success to the Superdome. He’s never won a road playoff game. Since 2008, his road QB rating has been at least 20 points lower than his home QB rating in 3 of 5 seasons. And before joining the Saints, he was really not that great, certainly not in comparison to what he is today. Injuries weren’t the only reason why he was so available before the 2006 season. There’s no denying he’s an elite, top level quarterback, but I have Brady, Rodgers, and Manning (in some order) ahead of him.

34. WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

As so many receivers do, Dez Bryant broke out in his 3rd year in the league in 2012, catching 92 passes for 1328 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. The freakishly talented wideout was even better in the 2nd half of the season, catching 50 passes for 879 yards and 10 touchdowns, a sign that he could be even better in 2013. He needs to avoid mental mistakes both on and off the field, which is what’s plagued him throughout his collegiate and professional career, but there might not be a better receiver this side of Calvin Johnson than Dez Bryant when he’s going right. The best news for the Cowboys: he’s yet to even turn 25.

35. C Will Montgomery (Washington)

It’s hard to find many centers who played better in 2012 than Will Montgomery did. Breaking out in a huge way in the Redskins’ new offense, Montgomery was a nasty zone blocking offensive lineman and a huge part of the reason why the Redskins rushed for so many yards and were deadly on offense. I’ll need to see it from him again, but I’ve seen enough to put him this high.

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36. CB Brandon Flowers (Kansas City)

How the Chiefs got 6 Pro-Bowlers without Brandon Flowers being one of them in 2012 I’ll never know. One of the most consistently top level cornerbacks in the NFL over the past 4 years, Flowers has somehow never made a Pro-Bowl, despite frequently matching up with opponent’s #1 receivers and holding them around 50% completion. The Chiefs signed him to a 5-year, 50 million dollar extension 2 Septembers ago and let Brandon Carr, their talented #2 cornerback, walk the following off-season, when he actually got more money from the Cowboys than Flowers got from the Chiefs. Considering Carr seemed a little overmatched at times in his first year as a #1 cornerback with the Cowboys in 2012, I’d say the Chiefs made the correct choice.

37. TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

A machine, Witten is one of the most dependable players in the NFL regardless of position. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003, signing a waiver to play through a ruptured spleen week 1 of last season and his worst season since his rookie year was 2006, when he still caught 64 passes for 754 yards and 1 touchdowns. Since 2004, his 2nd season in the league, he’s averaged 86 catches for 956 yards and 5 touchdowns per season and only going into his age 31 season coming off a career high in catches, I see no reason why that wouldn’t continue. He’s also been consistently one of the best blocking tight ends in the game. He gets overlooked because he’s so consistent, but you’d be hard pressed to find a better all-around tight end in the NFL over the past 8 or so years.

38. RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

As a mere rookie, Doug Martin emerged as a complete feature back from the word go. He rushed for 1454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries, while catching 49 passes for 472 yards and another score. As is the case with all running backs, his ability to replicate that in 2013 is dependent on whether or not he stays healthy. He does have a history of injuries from his days at Boise State, but he was still an incredible find with the 31st pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, after the Buccaneers traded back into the first to grab him, jumping ahead of the Giants, who were ready to take him one spot later.

39. G Josh Sitton (Green Bay)

A collegiate offensive tackle at the University of Central Florida, Josh Sitton was converted to guard in the NFL, after being drafted in the 4th round in 2008, and has not looked back, proving to be an absolute steal for the Packers (what else is new?) in the process. Since taking over as the Packers’ starting right guard in 2009, Sitton has been one of the most consistently top level guards in the NFL. He’ll move to left guard this season, which is a risk because he was already established at his previous position, but it could pay off. He’s a tremendous pass protector for an interior offensive lineman, allowing just 9 sacks in 4 seasons, and the Packers need all the help they can get protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blindside.

40. S Reshad Jones (Miami)

A nondescript player in his first two years in the league, Jones, a 2010 5th round pick, broke out in a huge way in 2012, playing pretty much on the level of top safeties Eric Weddle and Jairus Byrd. Those other two are higher than him on this list because they have more than one good season under their belt, but the Dolphins are banking on him having plenty more seasons like he just had. They gave him a 4-year 30 million dollar extension this off-season, after just one good season. It’s certainly a risk, but it’ll be a relative bargain of a deal if he can keep this up.

Go on to 41-60

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Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bengals, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

With the Ravens having a poor off-season (at least in the general public’s eyes) and the Steelers coming off an 8-8 season, the Bengals have been popularly anointed the best team in the AFC North and the likely division champ. This does make some sense. They probably have more non-quarterback talent than any team in that division. They return a strong defense and a strong offensive line and add rookies Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert to the fold offensively, which will give the Bengals’ offense more versatility and balance. The added talent could also allow #1 receiver AJ Green to shine even more in his 3rd year in the league.

However, I still don’t know if Andy Dalton is capable of consistently beating top level teams. If you count the game against the Ravens’ backups week 17 of 2012 as a non-playoff team, Dalton is 18-4 against non-playoff teams in his career, but just 1-11 against playoff teams, including two post-season early exits. That one win was against the early season Redskins, who lost left tackle Trent Williams in that game. In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

Are the Bears are playoff team? Well I don’t think anyone would be shocked if they made the playoffs. I didn’t predict them to make the playoffs, but mostly because the NFC is so loaded. If they were in the AFC like the Bengals, I don’t think they would have much problem at least grabbing a Wild Card. I think they certainly more have in common with the types of teams Dalton has been unable to beat than the types of teams he has dominated.

The Bears were overly reliant on dominating the turnover battle (+20) and the return touchdown battle (+7 touchdowns, 49 points) last season, two things that would have been very tough for them to carry into 2013. Their offense scored just 19.1 points per game last season if you take out the points scored by the defense on returns. That number doesn’t tell the whole story because the offense saw fewer drives to no fault of their own as a result of the defense taking it to the house 10 times, but even on a per drive basis, they ranked 22nd in the NFL scoring 1.62 points per drive.

However, credit the Bears for addressing their offensive needs this off-season. Drew Brees made Jermon Bushrod look better than he was and the Bears overpaid him, but he still represents an upgrade at left tackle over J’Marcus Webb, who went from starting left tackle to final cut when his #1 fan Mike Tice was let go this off-season. Martellus Bennett is light years better than Kellen Davis, who had one of the worst receiving seasons by a tight end in recent memory last season.

1st round pick Kyle Long slots in at right guard and if his pre-season is any indication, he won’t be overmatched at the NFL level. Alshon Jeffery also had a strong pre-season and will serve as a much needed consistent #2 opposite Brandon Marshall. On top of that, offensive minded Head Coach Marc Trestman comes in, hoping to add some life to an offense that was stagnant and predictable over the past few years under defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith and his ineffective group of offensive assistant.

This is by far the strongest supporting cast Jay Cutler has had since joining the Bears and, while they might score not more than the 23.4 points per game (16th in the NFL) they scored as a team last season, they’ll be a more consistent offensive team and they should be right around middle of the pack in scoring. Defensively, they remain one of the better stop units in the NFL, even if they don’t force as many turnovers as they did last season (the 3rd most by a team since 2002). They were #1 in the NFL in points allowed per drive last season.

On top of this, the Bengals could be without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for this game with a knee injury, which would be a huge loss. Whitworth finally got his due, making the Pro-Bowl last season, but he’s been consistently one of the best pass blocking left tackles in the game. Swing tackle Anthony Collins would be a significant downgrade from Whitworth and Bears’ defensive end Julius Peppers could probably have his way with him and create multiple pressures and possible a couple of sacks as well.

This is especially bad news because Andy Dalton is so poor under pressure. In terms of under pressure efficiency (which basically takes into account how often a quarterback completes a pass under pressure, takes a sack under pressure, throws an interception under pressure, or scrambles for a gain under pressure), Dalton was 3rd worst in the NFL last season, throwing 5 interceptions, completing 39.4% of his passes and taking a sack 29.4% of the time. Given that this line is just -3 and that the Bears are at home, I feel pretty confident taking the Bears here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Chicago Bears 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

While much has been made of how much the Ravens lost this off-season, I actually think this is a better team this season than they were last season. Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean I expect them to repeat as Super Bowl champions. They weren’t the best team in the league last year. They were the best team in the league last January and February, but in the regular season they were a 10-6 team that barely won the yardage battle on the season. I expect them to be better than that this season.

The primary reason for that is I think that Joe Flacco will maintain some of his gains from last year’s post-season run. Throughout his 5 year career, he’s been a very inconsistent week to week quarterback, but an incredibly consistent year to year quarterback, proving himself to be a slightly above average quarterback and nothing more. His completion percentages have always fallen between 57.6% and 63.1%. His YPAs have always fallen between 6.7 and 7.4. His touchdowns have always fallen between 20 and 25 (with the exception of his rookie year) and his interceptions have always fallen between 10 and 12. Of course, that all changed in the post-season, as he completed 57.9% of his passes for an average of 9.1 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

He won’t be that good this season, mostly because that level of play is impossible to maintain over a season, but there are three reasons why I think he carries over his strong play into this season and has the best regular season of his career. The first is I think he’s truly turned somewhat of a corner as a player. He’ll never be a top level quarterback most likely, but I think he is an improved quarterback over where he was a year ago.

The second reason is Bryant McKinnie. The veteran left tackle barely played in the regular season because of weight issues, but he got his weight right for the playoffs and made his first start of the season in the first round of the playoffs. This allowed Michael Oher and Kelechi Osemele to shift to their more natural positions of right tackle and left guard respectively. This led to Joe Flacco being sacked on just 4.5% of his drop backs in the post-season and pressured on just 27.6%. For comparison, he was sacked on 6.1% of his drop backs and pressured 32.4% of his drop backs in the regular season.

The third reason is offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell. Ordinarily, firing your offensive coordinator after week 14, as the Ravens did in 2012 after an overtime home loss to the Redskins, is the equivalent of waving a white flag. However, for the Ravens it was a move that had needed to be done for years as Cam Cameron was consistently overmatched as a play caller on a weekly basis. That was obvious. What was not obvious was how much of an upgrade Jim Caldwell, a first time signal caller, would be.

The biggest thing Caldwell did was letting Flacco unleash and throw downfield most often, rather than forcing him to run a more conservative offense. It had looked for years like Flacco was always holding something back and he might actually be more accurate 15 yards downfield than 5-10 yards downfield. In 6 full games with Caldwell as his offensive coordinator, Flacco threw downfield 20+ yards or more 41 times, an average of 6.8 times per game. In 13 games with Cam Cameron, he threw downfield 20+ yards or more 80 times, an average of 6.2 times per game. Of those 41 throws, he completed 20 for 714 yards and 6 touchdowns, with no interceptions. A full season of Flacco and Caldwell will be very beneficial to Flacco.

The only concern is he’s lost receivers Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. Their receiving corps is a weakness and their Achilles heel, but I trust Flacco to succeed in spite of that. New #1 receiver Torrey Smith is a better fit as a #1 receiver in a downfield throw based offense and going into his 3rd year in the league, he could be ready to bust out.

On top of that, I actually really like what the Ravens did this off-season. This might sound ridiculous considering all they lost early in free agency. Ray Lewis retired, as did long time starting center Matt Birk. Ed Reed signed with the Texans and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, who came on big time in their playoff run, signed with the Dolphins and Ravens respectively. For cap reasons, Anquan Boldin was traded to the 49ers and Bernard Pollard was cut. Also gone are defensive starters, Cary Williams and Ma’ake Kemoeatu, making it a total of 9 starters gone from their Super Bowl winning team.

However, the Ravens did not panic and let the off-season come to them, as could have been expected from GM Ozzie Newsome, one of the best in the business. Super Bowls are never won on the first day of free agency. That’s when mediocre teams like the Dolphins panic and overspend, but the good teams like the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers, 49ers, Giants, Packers, Saints, and Falcons never make big moves on that day and instead focus on smart signings, strong drafting, and careful cap management. You can say that it’s because those teams don’t need as much because they are already good, but none of them were built on big free agent signings.

The Ravens drafted very well, adding two first round prospects in the first 2 rounds of the draft in Matt Elam and Arthur Jones, who will replace Ed Reed and Ray Lewis respectively (technically Elam will play strong safety and replace Bernard Pollard, but safeties are so interchangeable these days that I think the statement still counts as true given than Elam is the future of the Ravens’ safety position). They may split time with veterans Josh Bynes and James Ihedigbo early in the season, but they will be the starters before long.

In addition to their strong draft, they made a number of smart free agency signings. Michael Huff was signed to a cheap 3 year deal to play safety next to Matt Elam. He was a cap casualty by the Raiders, but he is still a solid starter and a great value. Daryl Smith was signed to a one year deal from Jacksonville. He’s going into his age 31 season and missed most of last year with injury, but was one of the best linebackers in the league in 2011. He’ll play inside with Arthur Brown. Chris Canty was signed after being cut by the Giants to provide defensive line depth and replace Kemoeatu.

Even when the Ravens made a big money signing it was a good value. After the Broncos made him a cap casualty, the Ravens signed Elvis Dumervil to a 5 year, 26 million dollar deal (with an extra 9 million available through incentives). It was a great value considering Paul Kruger got 40.5 million over 5 years from the Browns, despite the fact that he was only a one year starter. Dumervil, meanwhile, has 42 sacks in his last 3 healthy seasons, including playoffs, and is only 2 years older, going into just his age 29 season. He’s very one dimensional, but he’s better in a 3-4, having his career best year in 2009 under Mike Nolan in Denver, and should play even better in Baltimore’s scheme (similar to a Mike Nolan type defense) than he did in the last 2 seasons in Denver.

If either of these two teams is inferior to the last time they met, it’s Denver. Sure, the additions of Wes Welker and Louis Vasquez give them a stronger offensive supporting cast, but I don’t necessarily think they’ll score more points as a result. The Broncos were 2nd in the NFL in points scored last year, averaging 30.1 points per game, largely due to Peyton Manning having the 2nd best statistical season of his career.

Sure, with an improved supporting cast, Manning could have an even better season, but I think it’s more likely that general regression, along with slightly diminished skills as a 37 year old who has recently had 4 neck surgeries, lead to a much more average season for Manning, at least by his standards. An average Manning season is still pretty good, but I don’t think they’ll score 30 points per game again, something Manning accomplished just once in Indianapolis (2004). They still lack balance on offense as they’ll be going with a trio of 2nd round rookie Montee Ball, 2012 3rd round pick and change of pace back Ronnie Hillman, and the mediocre Knowshon Moreno.

While I don’t think they’ll be as good offensively, defensively I know they won’t be as good, especially early on. First, they lost Elvis Dumervil, an above average defensive end who thrived as a pass rusher, this off-season and didn’t replace him. To add insult to injury on that one, Dumervil now is on the Ravens. On top of that, they’ll be without Von Miller and possibly Champ Bailey and Derek Wolfe in this game.

Miller’s absence will be the biggest since he’s one of the best all-around players in the game, but losing a #1 cornerback in Champ Bailey isn’t helpful either. Derek Wolfe’s potential absence isn’t as big of a deal, except for that it further thins out their defensive end depth. We could see heavy doses of a washed up Shaun Phillips, former 1st round pick bust Robert Ayers, and inexperienced 2nd year player Malik Jackson at defensive end for the Broncos this week. The Ravens should be able to move the ball easily.

I don’t know that the Ravens will necessarily win this game, but I’m pretty confident getting 7 ½ points with them. I thought this line was ridiculous when it opened at 8 ½ and that it was an overreaction to the Ravens’ supposedly poor offense, but it’s even more ridiculous that it only moved 1 point (without crossing any key numbers) for all of the Broncos injuries and Miller’s suspension. Defending Super Bowl Champions usually do well week 1, as the Giants losing last year snapped a 10 game winning streak for Defending Super Bowl Champions week 1, since they moved this to a standalone game (on either Monday, Thursday, or Wednesday) in 2002.

The Ravens are in a different situation, on the road here, because of a dispute with the Orioles, with whom they share multiple parking lots. However, I think that might make the Ravens feel even more disrespected, which they already must be, considering how little respect the public is giving them early. I really like getting more than a touchdown with them here in this situation. And for what’s it’s worth, I think it’s ridiculous this game had to be moved for baseball. Baseball has 162 games per season. Football has 16. One game is much more important and interesting in football, not to mention the fact that football is a more popular sport. And on top of that, the Ravens are defending Super Bowl champs. What have the Orioles won? Oh, they might have a chance at winning the 2nd AL Wild Card? Pretty impressive.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Denver Broncos 24 Upset Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore +7.5

Confidence: High

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