Month: September 2013

New York Jets: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

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Last week: 29 (+4)

The Jets have plenty of problems, but they have one of the best front 7s in football. The 8 sacks they had against the Bills were no fluke. Damon Harrison and Demario Davis have broken out as first year starters, while David Harris, who was at one point a great player, is having a huge bounce back year. And that doesn’t even include recent 1st rounders Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and Quinton Coples, who returned from injury last week. They still need another edge rusher and could grad one with a high pick in 2013 to make their front 7 even more talented, but this is a very talented bunch.

Week 3 Studs

QB Geno Smith

RT Austin Howard

LE Muhammad Wilkerson

DT Damon Harrison

MLB David Harris

Week 3 Duds

TE Jeff Cumberland

LG Vladimir Ducaase

C Nick Mangold

ROLB Calvin Pace

MLB Demario Davis

CB Kyle Wilson

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San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (-2)

Philip Rivers is enjoying a resurgent season this year, completing 70.0% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception. This is despite the fact that he doesn’t really have a lot to work with in terms of receivers, offensive linemen, and running backs. The impact of Mike McCoy can’t be overstated. However, their defense has been even worse than their offense has been good. They have allowed 71 first downs and forced a league worst 9 punts. That’s what keeps this down here.

Week 3 Studs

RB Danny Woodhead

TE Antonio Gates

MLB Andrew Gachkar

Week 3 Duds

ROLB Dwight Freeney

MLB David Harris

LG Chad Rinehart

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Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bills, Uncategorized

Last week: 27

How do you lose to a team that commits 20 penalties? Justin Rogers played one of the worst games by a defensive back in recent memory, getting torched with ease by Geno Smith, no matter whether he was covering Stephen Hill or Santonio Holmes. The 2011 7th rounder out of Richmond allowed 6 catches on 8 attempts for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns and it’s not like Smith, Hill, and Holmes are Manning, Thomas, and Welker. They really need Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd back.

Week 3 Studs

LT Cordy Glenn

ROLB Manny Lawson

MLB Kiko Alonso

Week 3 Duds

QB EJ Manuel

RB CJ Spiller

LG Colin Brown

C Eric Wood

LOLB Mario Williams

CB Justin Rogers

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (-2)

Every game, Josh Freeman looks more and more like a lame duck quarterback. He’s completing 45.7% of his passes for an average of 6.1 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions this season. In his last 8 games, he’s completed 174 of 356 (48.8%) for 2210 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 12 touchdowns, winning just one of those games. It was in their best interest to start Mike Glennon as soon as possible to evaluate him for the future and determine whether or not they’ll need to draft a quarterback with what is starting to look like a top-5 pick. Credit them for making the move.

Week 3 Studs

LT Donald Penn

RT DeMar Dotson

Week 3 Duds

RE Adrian Clayborn

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

Poor Browns. They can’t even tank right. Brian Hoyer became the first quarterback to throw for 3 touchdowns in a game for the Browns since Brady Quinn in 2009, while punter Shane Lanning also threw a touchdown, giving him as many as Brandon Weeden has this season. The presence of Josh Gordon clearly helped and it’ll be very interesting to see if they’re really trying to shop him like reports have said. Teams like the Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens should send the Browns a 3rd rounder for him in a heartbeat.

Week 3 Studs

LG John Greco

RG Oniel Cousins

RE John Hughes

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

SS TJ Ward

Week 3 Duds

MLB Craig Robertson

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 28 (-2)

The Jaguars might have “won” the Teddy Bridgewater bowl when they lost to the Raiders week 2, but the Vikings might have “won” the Tajh Boyd bowl by losing to the Browns last week. It’ll be interesting to see if they actually pull the trigger on a quarterback early in 2014. Head Coaches are usually very stubborn when it comes it giving up on quarterbacks they drafted in the first round (see Ryan, Rex) and it’s very doubtful that Leslie Frazier gets fired, no matter how badly the Vikings do this season. At the same time, reports have said that the Vikings are closer to benching Ponder than anyone knows. We’ll see what they do.

Week 3 Studs

RG Brandon Fusco

CB Marcus Sherels

ROLB Desmond Bishop

Week 3 Duds

TE Kyle Rudolph

LG Charlie Johnson

RE Jared Allen

CB Josh Robinson

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 31

The Raiders got a win against the Jaguars week 2, but things were back to normal in week 3 as they got blown out by the Broncos. Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game.

Week 3 Studs

QB Terrelle Pryor

RT Tony Pashos

Week 3 Duds

LG Andre Gurode

MLB Nick Roach

CB DJ Hayden

CB Mike Jenkins

FS Brandian Ross

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

Give the Jaguars credit. They almost covered the spread as 19 point underdogs in the first half. And yeah, they drafted a punter over Russell Wilson, but he was used 7 times against the Seahawks, while Russell Wilson was sitting on the bench by the middle of the 3rd quarter. It’s back to Blaine Gabbert this week for the Jaguars, but it won’t matter. The worst thing they can do at this point is win because they are the clear favorites for Teddy Bridgewater at this point. Maybe that was their plan all along, draft the best available in 2013, cut big contracts, and build for 2014 and beyond.

Week 3 Studs

None

Week 4 Studs

QB Chad Henne

TE DJ Williams

LG Will Rackley

SS John Cyprien

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2013 Week 4 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

WR Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.8%

In his 3rd game back from injury, Santonio Holmes caught 5 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown, showing great rapport with Geno Smith. His quarterback situation isn’t ideal and he’s not the most reliable receiver anyway, but he could be back and he’s worth a bench stash for that reason. He’s only 29 years old and had a 1000 yard season in 2009.

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.9%

Clay had another solid week, catching 4 passes for 40 yards, bringing his season total to 14 catches for 203 yards and he also has a rushing touchdown. He’s put up at least 4 fantasy points in all 3 games. He’s a low end TE1 and worth a pickup.

RB Jason Snelling (Atlanta)

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.6%

Jacquizz Rodgers is Steven Jackson’s direct backup, but it looks like Jason Snelling is going to get plenty of work with Jackson out as well and it looks like Jackson will be out until at least week 7. Snelling totaled 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 touches, including 4 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.2%

Tannehill seems to be having a leap year in his 2nd year in the league. He’s completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. This week, he plays New Orleans in what could be a shootout that will produce plenty of fantasy points. If your starting quarterback has a week 4 bye (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton), Tannehill is a very solid pickup.

WR Stephen Hill (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

Santonio Holmes wasn’t the only Jet with a big week. Stephen Hill caught 3 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, bringing his season totals of 13 catches for 233 yards and a touchdown. He’s not going to be that reliable going forward, especially if Holmes can continue playing this week, but he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.

WR Nate Washington (Tennessee)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.2%

Nate Washington caught 8 passes for 131 yards this week. Kenny Britt isn’t doing anything and rookie Justin Hunter is still too raw. If Jake Locker can continue a solid level of play, Washington could be a startable option because of how much Locker trusts him, but I don’t think Washington has much upside.

RB Brandon Bolden (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Stevan Ridley is starting to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. LeGarrette Blount is taking most of the ceded carries, but Brandon Bolden has become the new passing down back and even totaled 100 all-purpose yards against the Buccaneers. He’s worth a look in deep leagues and PPR leagues to see if he can keep this up.

RB LeGarrette Blount (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

As I mentioned, Stevan Ridley is starting to fall out of favor with the coaching staff. Blount actually led the team in carries against New England, rushing for 65 yards on 14 carries. That could continue going forward, though it’s tough to trust him because of how inconsistent Bill Belichick is with running backs and because of Blount’s own inconsistent nature.

WR Donnie Avery (Kansas City)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Alex Smith doesn’t seem to be looking downfield to Dwayne Bowe very much. He has middling arm strength and has thrown 20+ yards downfield just 4 times all season. Instead, he’s been targeting guys like running back Jamaal Charles, fullback Anthony Sherman, and slot receiver Donnie Avery. Avery, who caught 7 passes for 141 yards against the Eagles, could be a big part of the offense going forward.

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Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Steelers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game.

The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week, though probably in a limited role. Heath Miller is expected to return as well, but it’s unclear how limited he’ll be in his first game back from a torn ACL suffered last December. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. That could be a different story this week as their health improves.

Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy. They should remain a tough defense going forward and I find it hard to believe they’ll be the 3rd least efficient offense in the NFL (in terms of moving the chains) all season, so I haven’t completely given up on them, especially in an AFC North that looks clear as mud right now.

This week, they face an NFC North team which is a different monster, but it’s not like Chicago is that great of a team. I don’t believe that the Bears deserve to be 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have been home dogs just 6 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era, going 3-1-2 ATS. I also don’t believe that the Steelers are going to start this season 0-3. At the same time, I’m not confident in them at all right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: None

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