Denver Broncos (4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Broncos are playing incredible football right now. Peyton Manning has 16 touchdowns (to no interceptions) and 1470 yards, while the team has 179 points. They could easily break the touchdown record (50) the yardage record (5476) and the points record (589). However, they won’t play THIS well all season and they don’t need to in order to bring those records. They can break the scoring record by scoring 34.2 points per game the rest of the way, impressive, but more than 10 points per game less than they’ve scored thus far this season. I think that’s very reasonable.

As good as the Broncos have been, they’ve played arguably 3 of the worst 5 defenses in the NFL so far, playing the Giants, Raiders, and the Eagles. Those teams have allowed opponents to move the chains on 78%, 76%, and 85% of opportunities. These Cowboys allowed opponents to do so on 73% of opportunities and have significantly more defensive talent than those 3 teams have. This could be the start of Manning and the Broncos looking more human. The 2007 New England Patriots had a stretch in which they scored 173 points in 4 games and a stretch in which they scored 99 points in 4 games.

As a result, I think this line is way too big. The odds makers know they can jack this line up ridiculously high and people will still bet on the Broncos. The Broncos, predictably, are one of the highest bet teams this week. This could be a trap line for that reason. Before last week, this line was Denver -3.5. Now it’s Denver -9. We’ve had 5 and a half points of line movement and the public still loves the Broncos. Given that the odds makers always make money, that fact should scare you off of the Broncos. The Broncos, even if they somehow win every game this season, won’t cover every game this season. Even the 2007 Patriots went just 10-6 ATS, 10-9 ATS if you include the post-season.

The Cowboys are a solid football team. No team deserves to be favored by 9 points in Dallas against them. Yes, they lost in San Diego last week, but it’s not like San Diego is a terrible football team. Philip Rivers is playing excellent football right now. Besides, they had a huge situational trend working against them last week (non-divisional home dogs are 63-28 ATS since 1989 before being divisional favorites). This week, the Cowboys are the one with that powerful trend on their side. I like their chances of keeping this one close.

Denver Broncos 34 Dallas Cowboys 31

Pick against spread: Dallas +9

Confidence: Medium

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