Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

This is another one I could really go both ways on. On one hand, the Eagles don’t deserve to be favorites here. Much has been made about all the problems the Buccaneers have, from Josh Freeman, to Greg Schiano, to MRSA, but they still have a lot of talent. Mike Glennon isn’t a very good quarterback under center, but they are still holding opponents to a 72% rate of moving the chains defensively, thanks to guys like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis. They had 7 of my top-200 players before the season and 6 of them will play this week (Carl Nicks is out). The Eagles’ defense isn’t very good at all, so, in his 2^nd career start after a week off, he could be significantly better than he was in the opener against a much tougher Arizona defense.

On the other hand, Nick Foles looked really good in relief of Michael Vick against the Giants. Yes, it was just the Giants’ defense, but he completed 16 of 25 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Vick completed 6 of 14 for 105 yards. The team was noticeably better when he was on the field. I’ve held all season that Chip Kelly’s offense is making a washed up Vick look significantly better than he is (ProFootballFocus agrees, as they’ve graded him below average as a passer this season). I think his offense can do the same with Nick Foles. The offense will obviously look different with him out there, but he should continue to get open receivers and he should continue to be supported by LeSean McCoy on the ground.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Tampa Bay, but I really wish we were getting a whole field goal or more with them at home. I don’t think Philadelphia has any business being favored on the road against a team with a solid supporting cast, because of how terrible their defense is. One trend does hurt them, as non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home dogs, though the Eagles could end up being favored over the Cowboys at home next week depending on the results of this week. However, I’d need at least a field goal to be confident at all.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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