Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I could go either way on this game. On one hand, the Cowboys generally fall flat as big home favorites, at least lately. Using the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009 as a start point, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more, excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what. The Cowboys gave the Broncos a real run for their money last week, but that was in a completely different dynamic as underdogs and now they could be a little flat for an inferior opponent after coming up short. The Redskins, on the other hand, could be a much improved team coming out of the bye. Mike Shanahan generally covers coming out of the bye, going 10-5 ATS, and the extra rest could have been exactly what Robert Griffin needed. He’s four games in now so he’s essentially had the pre-season he missed.

On the other hand, I legitimately think the Cowboys are a good football team and that this line at -5 might not be accurate (check out other NFL Lines). I don’t think their near win against the Broncos was a fluke. Their defense clearly still has a bunch of flaws. Injuries to Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff have thinned their defensive line significantly, while the defensive scheme change seems to have hurt promising youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter. However, they have one of the better offenses in football, moving the chains on 80% of opportunities (as opposed to 79% for opponents).

Tony Romo has always had a ton of weapons to throw to and he’s supposed to get Miles Austin back this week. However, he’s as well protected as he’s been in years as the Cowboys finally seem to have retooled what was once the oldest offensive line in football. Tyron Smith is emerging as a talented blindside protector in his 3^rd year in the league. Doug Free has bounced back in a big way and has been one of the best right tackles in the game this season. On the interior, the additions of Brian Waters and Travis Frederick have helped immensely. Add in a healthy DeMarco Murray running well and this is a very strong offensive unit.

Unless the Redskins are significantly improved coming out of the bye, this line is too low. I’m still skeptical that Griffin will resemble his 2012 self at all this season. For one, the 1.0% interception rate he had in 2012 is probably something he’ll never match again, even if he goes on to have a Hall of Fame career. Two, he’s not going to be as effective running the football due to the combination of a terrible defense always making him play catch up and the fact that teams have had a year to study the read option. Three, even Tom Brady took a year to really get his legs under him after an ACL tear and he’s not nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. There’s enough for me to be scared off of being confident in the Cowboys, but they should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -5

Confidence: None

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