Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

The Bills are very underrated because of a tough defense. Their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains on 72% of opportunities thanks to very strong front 7 play from guys like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and Kiko Alonso. They are doing this without their top two defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd playing a full set of snaps yet. Fortunately, they returned to limited action last week and seem set to play a full set of snaps this week, which will make their defense even tougher. As long as they can get at least passable quarterback play from Thaddeus Lewis, who played well in his debut last week, they have a very good chance to keep this game within the 7.5 point spread.

The Bills are just 2-4 on the season, but consider that they haven’t been favored in any of their first 6 games. They’ve faced a very tough schedule and yet they’ve lost just once by more than a touchdown and that was on a late pick six by Jeff Tuel against the Browns. They’ve been underdogs in all 4 of their home games, covering all 4 times, with upset wins over Baltimore and Carolina and near wins against the Bengals and Patriots. Those are all quality opponents. They’ve yet to cover on the road in 2 opportunities, but they hung tough with the Jets and Browns.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, remain overrated. They are 3-2, but just 1 of their wins came by more than 4 points. They are actually getting outscored on the season. When you look at how they are moving the chains, as opposed to how their opponents are, it’s even worse. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 71% rate. Ryan Tannehill is improved, but an offensive line that is on pace to set the NFL record for sacks allowed makes it tough to maintain consistent drives. The Bills’ tough front 4 will give them all sorts of trouble. Defensively, their retooled stop unit isn’t doing its job, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. That -7% differential is 28^th in the NFL, worse than Buffalo, who, has I mentioned, has a great defense. This 7.5 point spread is ridiculous.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot with the Patriots on deck. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 18-48 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. I really like the underrated Bills’ chances to keep this within a touchdown against a distracted and overrated Dolphins team. The only reason the Bills are not a bigger play is because they will be double digit underdogs in New Orleans next week and teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. There’s just too much to ignore though.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]