Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

I’ve maintained the whole time that the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East, especially with the rest of the division flopping in spectacular fashion this season. The Eagles are the best of the rest this season, going 3-3 with wins over both the Giants and Redskins. However, their record is misleading as the combined record of the 3 teams they beat is 1-15 (Tampa Bay 0-5, NY Giants 0-6, Washington 1-4). That being said, this is probably the worst possible time for the Cowboys to be facing the Eagles in Philadelphia for reasons I’ll get into.

Because of that, I totally understand why the Eagles are favored. Nick Foles has been excellent in a game and a half in relief of an injured Michael Vick to the point where Chip Kelly essentially admitted that Vick won’t necessary get his job back when he’s healthy. I think that’s the right move. It was my suspicion all along that a washed up Vick was being made to look better than he is by Kelly’s offense and the way Foles has played in the last game and a half would seem to support that.

Foles obviously isn’t the runner Vick is, but you don’t need to be to run Chip Kelly’s offense. Kelly has done a great job catering to Foles’ strengths. He started out completing 16 of 25 for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants, which I guess isn’t incredibly impressive because it’s the Giants. However, the Buccaneers have a very solid defense and Foles torched them for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns on 22 of 31 passing. The Eagles are already moving the chains at a 79% rate on the season thanks to play makers like LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, but if Foles continues to be an upgrade over Vick, we could see that number go into the 80% range.

The Eagles haven’t faced a terrible tough schedule remember, but the Cowboys don’t present much of a challenge defensively either. They have talent, but they’re allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, as injuries have taken a huge toll on them. They were expected to start Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, and DeMarcus Ware on their defensive line, but Spencer is out for the season with knee surgery, Ratliff was waived/injured rather than being activated off of the PUP, and DeMarcus Ware will miss anywhere from a week to a month with an injury of his own.

That could be the killer considering how important he is to this defense. Defensive Line Coach Rod Marinelli has done a good job of coaching up backup caliber talents this season, but the downgrade from DeMarcus Ware to Kyle Wilbur might be just too much. Between that and youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter failing to adapt to Monte Kiffin’s scheme, the Cowboys have had a hard time preventing opponents from scoring without takeaways, forcing just 22 punts in 6 games. The Eagles should basically move the ball at will against them.

They might have to because the Eagles’ defense sucks even more. It’s one of the reasons why I think and have always thought the Cowboys will eventually win this division. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, a number that was much higher before they ran into the Giants’ and Buccaneers’ incompetent offenses. Even Mike Glennon lit up their secondary last week.

The Cowboys offense is playing very well this season, as anyone who saw them play the Broncos will tell you, as they are moving the chains at a 79% rate. Their offensive line is night and day better than last season, thanks to a huge bounce back season from Doug Free and the additions of Travis Frederick and Brian Waters. This is giving Tony Romo plenty of time to hit his talented receiving corps, despite the fact that Miles Austin really has yet to contribute this season.

However, injuries hurt them here as well as DeMarco Murray is out for at least a week with an injury (surprise). He was a big part of the reason why the Cowboys had one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL thus far this season. Joseph Randle will be his replacement and he struggled against the Redskins in relief of Murray, rushing for 17 yards on 11 carries, though he did score a touchdown. He could be better with a week of practice as the starter and against a weak Philadelphia defense and strong run blocking will help him, but it’s an obvious downgrade.

There is also a trend in the Eagles’ favor, as teams are 110-81 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter to that. The Cowboys covered in this spot last week against the Redskins. Of course, I’m, not exactly sure the Eagles are better or equal to the Cowboys.

Between the emergence of Foles and the Cowboys’ injuries, I’m less certain than I’ve been all season that the Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC East and I’m not certain at all they’ll be able to win in Philadelphia without their best defensive player and with a situational trend working against them. I also hate backing a publicly backed underdog, especially a publicly backed short underdog. The public feels the Cowboys will win. The odds makers feel the Eagles will win. And I hate siding with the public on an issue like that. However, I’m taking the Cowboys in an “upset” on principle. I’m not confident at all though. This game will be a shootout that could go either way.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Philadelphia Eagles 33 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: None

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