Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4)

The Bears seem to be pretty overrated by the public. They are 4-2, but their defense has been nowhere near as good as it traditionally was in the Lovie Smith era. Last year, they were a dominant stop unit that also took the ball away. This year, if they can’t take the ball away from you, they generally can’t stop you from scoring, forcing 19 punts in 6 games this season, which puts them dead last in the NFL in punts forced per game.

If you watched them play the 0-6 Giants at home, this was obvious as the Bears only won by 6 despite winning the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that ended up being the deciding score. That’s a very bad thing because they won’t always be able to dominate the turnover battle. It’s something that’s very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin in a given game average a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. The same is true for teams that have a turnover margin of +4 in a given game. They’ll force more punts if they stop taking away the ball as often, but this is still a stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate.

This is for several reasons. One is age as they have four key 30+ players on their defense in Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, and Charles Tillman, none of whom is playing as well as they did in 2012. Injuries are also a problem. Henry Melton is the 5^th of their 5 defensive studs from 2012 and he’s out for the season with a torn ACL. His backup Nate Collins is also out for the season and Stephen Paea, the other starting defensive tackle, has missed time with injury. He’ll be back this week, but the Bears will still start converted defensive end Corey Wootton at next to him. The 270 pounder is unsurprisingly getting blown off the line of scrimmage in the run game.

The third issue is probably that they miss departed defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. New defensive coordinator Mel Tucker does not nearly have the same track record as those two. New Head Coach Marc Trestman actually has done a great job with the offense, which, also thanks to off-season additions, is much improved this season. Still, they are moving the ball at just a 75% rate, which is worse than the rate the defense is allowing.

Despite having a worse record than the Redskins, the Redskins actually have a better differential in terms of rate of moving the chains, albeit just 3/10ths of a percent higher. In spite of this, the Bears are actually favored on the road and the public is all over them. I don’t think that’s accurate. The Redskins should move the ball with ease on the Bears and, if we assume net zero turnovers, which I think is generally a smart assumption, I think the Redskins have a much better chance of winning here at home. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is the Redskins are playing the Broncos next week. Teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could be distracted. They should still be the right side though, especially in a must win at 1-4.

Washington Redskins 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1

Confidence: Low

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