New England Patriots (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3)
Injuries are a huge part of this game write up as the Patriots have one of the most thorough and dynamic injury situations in the NFL. We already know Vince Wilfork is out for the season with a torn Achilles. The Patriots have done a good job continuing to play strong defense even without him, though their run defense is noticeably worse. The Patriots are allowing opponent to move the chains on 68% of opportunities this season. They haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule, but they held Drew Brees to less than 50% completion last week for just the 2nd time since the beginning of the 2007 season.
Unfortunately, that win did come at a price, as Jerod Mayo tore his pectoral late and will miss the remainder of the season. Mayo was ProFootballFocus’ #2 ranked 4-3 outside linebacker after Von Miller last season, but he ranks dead last at his position through 6 games this season. He’s been awful against the run and even though he probably would have improved his run play going forward, I think he can be replaced in the run game by 2nd round rookie Jamie Collins. However, his ability in coverage will definitely be missed. Even this season, he was grading out above average in coverage. Neither Dont’a Hightower nor Brandon Spikes, as good as they are against the run, is good in coverage, but they will be relied on more in that fashion going forward as Collins is expected to be a pure two-down linebacker.
Fortunately, they are getting stellar play from Devin McCourty at safety this season so their lack of a strong coverage linebacker can be masked a bit. McCourty is ProFootballFocus’ #1 ranked safety. The Patriots are also expected to be without Aqib Talib in this one, though there is a chance he could suit up after returning to a limited practice on Friday. That’s obviously a huge loss as he’s been ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked cornerback this season, but if there were a game for him to miss, it’s this one. The Jets are without Santonio Holmes again and they are generally devoid of play makers downfield so the absence of Talib will be minimized in this one. The Jets are moving the chains at a 66% rate on the season thanks to the inconsistencies of rookie quarterback Geno Smith and his receiving corps so they should still have a strong defensive game.
Offensively, Danny Amendola is not expected to play with a concussion, which will leave them with the inconsistent trio of Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson, and Julian Edelman at wide receiver. However, the Patriots are expected to get Rob Gronkowski back this week. That could definitely be huge. Gronkowski might not be 100% in his first game back, but his presence on the field alone is going to help them tremendously and he should also be very productive in the passing game, especially around the goal line. Even if he doesn’t play a full set of snaps, he’ll definitely be used on all red zone and goal line snaps.
The Patriots are 30th in red zone scoring percentage this season, scoring a touchdown on just 40.9% red zone opportunities, only ahead of Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. This is opposed to last year, when they scored a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone opportunities, 3rd in the NFL. The absence of the 6-6 Gronkowski, who has scored 36 times in his last 35 full games, undoubtedly has a ton to do with that.
Over the past 2 seasons, Rob Gronkowski has played in 10 full games. In those 10 games, Tom Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He’s missed 14 games, including playoffs. In those 14 games, Brady has completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Gronk returning won’t solve all of his problems, but it’ll have a significant impact, particularly against a tough Jets defense, that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate. They’ll have to make the most of their goal line opportunities to win this one.
Before the announcement of Gronk’s return, I was leaning towards the Jets to at least keep this one within a field goal, in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs (64-43 ATS since 2002), especially since the Patriots could be overconfident after last week’s win. However, I don’t really want to go against the Patriots in a game in which they could be much improved offensively. On top of that, Tom Brady is 17-6 ATS in his career after a game in which he won despite throwing 16 or more incompletions, including 1-1 ATS this season. I’m not confident in them at all, but they’re the side I’m going with.
New England Patriots 20 New York Jets 16
Pick against spread: New England -3.5
Confidence: None
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