Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Steelers have been night and day better since the bye. The return of Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller to full health, giving the Steelers a talented runner and a safety net receiver respectively, have obviously helped, but I also think they are playing better as other guys are playing up to their abilities. They are still -2% in terms of moving the chains differential on the season, as opposed to -6% for the Raiders, so this line at Pittsburgh -2.5 is a little bit high. However, over the past two weeks they have 33 first downs to 7 punts and 1 turnover (an 80% rate), as opposed to 37 first downs, 10 punts, and 2 turnovers for their opponents (a 76% rate).

This week, they will have to avoid a trap they’ve fallen into countless times in the Mike Tomlin era. They are 6-17 ATS and just 12-11 straight up as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin took over in 2007. Of course, at 2-4, they might not overlook the Raiders like they otherwise would have in recent years when they were good. They covered as road favorites in New York against the Jets a few weeks ago, though they were 0-4 at the time and desperately needed a week. They were also coming directly off of a bye and road favorites cover at an incredible rate after a bye. It’s tough to know what kind of Steelers team will show this week, if they’ll play with urgency or if they’ll play down to the level of their competition after two wins. It’s tough to pick a side. I wish this line was 3 or higher though because I don’t feel comfortable taking the Raiders essentially straight up.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick of the Week: Oakland +2.5

Confidence: None

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