San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) at London

The Jaguars suck. There’s really no other way to put it. I don’t doubt they’ll pull an upset and win a game sometime this season because, as the 2007 Dolphins and the 2011 Colts will tell you, it’s really hard for an NFL team to lose 16 consecutive games. However, they’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams my these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). That’s relevant here because the line is at 16.5 and the 49ers are clearly not a bottom-5 team.

It’s possible the 49ers could sleepwalk through the game like the Broncos did and “only” win by like 16, but there are 3 differences. One is that it took a pick six to even get it to that, as it would have been a 22 point margin or worse if not for that. The 49ers could, of course, also throw a pick six. That isn’t impossible, but it’s far more likely that the Jaguars throw a pick six and even more likely than no one throws a pick six.

The second difference is that the Broncos were distracted with Peyton Manning’s upcoming trip to Indianapolis on the schedule. The 49ers have absolutely no distractions here, with a bye up next. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. I know this game doesn’t technically fit because it’s a neutral site game in London, but the 49ers are clearly the type of team that would be focused going into a bye and dominate a significantly inferior team and that’s what the trend is all about.

The third difference is actually that this game is in London. Imagine this for a second, you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re 0-7, you have to go across the ocean to play a 49er team that is 5-2 and made the Super Bowl last season. You’re losing a home game because of this game and chances are the London crowd is going to prefer the reigning NFC Champs over some shitty team from a city they’ve never heard of. There’s a good chance they just mail this one in. In fact, double digit underdogs are 0-3 ATS in London all-time. That’s not a huge sample size, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense. The 49ers could also be much more prepared for a game like this because they’re a superior veteran team.

The 49ers are playing excellent football right now. They’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 20.3 points per game and they should beat the Jaguars by at least 17. They don’t have Aldon Smith, but they haven’t really needed him. Their defense has shown their tremendous depth and talent level without him and 3^rd round rookie Corey Lemonier has played well in his absence. The upgrade of Tramaine Brock over Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary has also helped tremendously. And last week, Colin Kaepernick played arguably his best game since week 1 against a tough Tennessee defense and finally looked like the quarterback he was last season. This is a scary team and should be able to establish the run early and have their way with the significantly inferior and probably completely demoralized Jaguars. They’re also my survivor pick.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Francisco -16.5

Confidence: Medium

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