Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

I think the Bills are an underrated team. The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on my Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati.

Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. That being said, I think this line is pretty reasonable at 12 points. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate offensively, giving them a -3% rate of moving the chains rate. The Saints, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a +9% differential, 3^rd in the NFL.

The Bills, however, have been much better at home, covering all 4 spreads, but they covered their first spread of the season on the road last week. This is a different situation. Unlike Miami last week, the Saints are not overrated. The Dolphins, despite their record, are actually 29^th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Saints also aren’t in a bad spot like the Dolphins were last week. While the Dolphins had a game in New England to distract them, the Saints go to New York to play the Jets next week. Since 2002, 7+ point non-divisional home favorites are 65-38 ATS before being road non-divisional favorites.

The Bills, meanwhile, are actually the ones in the bad spot. They might not be as focused as they’d need to in order to hang with the Saints, after a big upset in Miami last week and a home game against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 18-28 ATS off of a close win (3 points or more) as 7+ point road underdogs against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, non-divisional road underdogs are 80-111 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites.

That being said, the biggest difference is just how tough of a place New Orleans is to play for a road team, particularly a young Buffalo team that doesn’t have experience going to a place like New Orleans, a non-conference foe. The Saints have not just won, but also covered their last 12 home games under Sean Payton, all 9 (including a playoff game) in 2011 and the first 3 of the season. They’re also 18-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss. Two weeks removed from that killer loss in New England, they should be completely focused to blow out the Bills at home. This is a big line, but the Saints definitely seem like the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans -12

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]