Month: October 2013

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-7

It’s becoming very clear that Greg Schiano will not be the Head Coach of the Buccaneers in 2014, though they may opt to keep him until the end of the season, rather than firing him mid-season. It’ll be interesting to see who the Buccaneers can get to replace him considering how many people turned down the job last time it was open, reportedly because they didn’t want to have to work for the Glazers. The Buccaneers have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Head Coaches in their last 2 attempts, first with Raheem Morris and then with Schiano and their next attempt might not be better if history is any indication. It makes you wonder why they ever let Jon Gruden go, assuming that was their decision and not his.

Week 8 Studs

C Jeremy Zuttah

Week 8 Duds

LG Ted Larsen

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

MLB Mason Foster

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

Record: 0-8

I still contend that the Jaguars will probably win a game at some point this season, but it’s arguable they’ve had the worst 8 game start to a season ever. They are the first team since the 1984 Oilers to lose the first 8 games of the season by 10 or more. The Oilers did it 10 times and eventually finished 3-13 (proving, once again, it’s very, very hard to go 0-16). In terms of DVOA, only the 2005 49ers were worse in the first 8 games of the season since Football Outsiders started keeping the stat in 1991. They’ve gotten outscored by an average of 22.25 points per game on the season, scoring 10.75 points per game and allowing 33.00 points per game, both of which are worst in the NFL. They also have more losses (8) than offensive touchdowns (7).

Week 8 Studs

LE Tyson Alualu

Week 8 Duds

QB Chad Henne

WR Justin Blackmon

TE Marcedes Lewis

SS Josh Evans

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Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

I could go either way on this one. The Bengals had a huge offensive outburst last week, scoring 49 points. Ordinarily, teams are able to maintain that kind of momentum into their next week. Favorites are 27-17 ATS since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. However, they are just 14-11 ATS as road favorites. The line did shift a point and a half since last week as a result of the Bengals’ blowout and the public is still all over the Bengals, but it didn’t pass the key number of 3 and I don’t think the line is ridiculous or anything.

I don’t like we’re getting serious value with the Bengals or anything, but the Dolphins are still not as good as their record. They’re moving the chains at a 71% rate offensively as a result of a terrible offensive line, while their retooled defense isn’t living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. That differential is 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 11th in the NFL. I have the line calculated at about 3 or 3.5 in favor of Cincinnati. I have no confidence in either side, but I’ll take the Bengals as long as it’s below the key number of 3 and hope for a field goal game.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: None

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2013 Week 9 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Andre Ellington (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 16.3%

Andre Ellington was great in small bursts early in the season, but with Rashard Mendenhall hurt this week, Ellington was the lead back, rushing for 154 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, and catching another 2 passes for 8 yards. He is now averaging 7.7 yards per carry on 43 carries on the season and also has 22 catches for 198 yards and 3 total touchdowns. It’s concerning that he was still splitting carries with Stepfan Taylor even with Mendenhall out and Head Coach Bruce Arians did not guarantee Ellington would see a bigger role out of the bye, but if Arians is smart (which remains to be seen) he’ll give Ellington the ball more often.

WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Marvin Jones exploded for an 8 catch, 122 yard, 4 touchdown performance against the Jets this week and now has 15 catches for 250 yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 3 games. He probably won’t continue scoring at this rate and it is concerning that he only played 19 snaps against the Jets, but he’ll almost definitely get more snaps going forward after that performance, especially with Mohamed Sanu expected to miss at least a week with injury. Jones is definitely a legitimate starting receiver and has the potential to dominate single coverage opposite AJ Green for the rest of the season.

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.1%

The Giants’ backfield is in such shambles that they’ve given Peyton Hillis 38 carries in the last 2 weeks combined after Brandon Jacobs, signed off the streets, got hurt. However, Andre Brown is expected to return from injury after the bye and could see significant snaps and carries in his season debut. He’s by far the Giants’ best passing down back and short yardage back even if everyone was healthy, but he could be a 20 touch a week back until David Wilson (out indefinitely) returns. The Giants have a bye this week so people will be ignoring Brown and then probably picking him up next week. Beat them to it and do it now.

RB Mike James (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.2%

Mike James isn’t very good and his blocking might be even worse, but he is the lead back in Tampa Bay until Doug Martin (out indefinitely) returns. He has 84 yards on 24 carries in the past 2 weeks, along with 7 catches for 33 yards and is worth owning in deep leagues solely because he’s a starting running back. The Buccaneers’ coaching staff did speak this week on their need to get back to the running game so James could see more carries.

TE Timothy Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

There are worse tight ends in deep leagues than Wright, a 6-3 220 pounder who isn’t a blocker at all, but can present mismatches in the passing game. Wright has 19 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown in the last 4 weeks and now Mike Williams is out for the season with a torn hamstring, meaning Wright could be the Buccaneers’ #2 option on a team that is constantly in catch up mode. If you need a few points from a bye week filler at tight end, take a look at Wright.

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Philadelphia Eagles trade DT Isaac Sopoaga to the New England Patriots

stevenlourie Eagles, Patriots, Uncategorized

Trade for Patriots: Isaac Sopoaga isn’t very good. The 32-year-old was ProFootballFocus’ 82nd ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible on ProFootballFocus last season on the nose in San Francisco. This year, he’s been better, but he’s still grading out slightly below average on the nose in Philadelphia. That being said, he’s probably better than anything the Patriots currently have as Vince Wilfork is on injured reserve, Tommy Kelly is out indefinitely, and the Patriots are using two undrafted rookies Joe Vellano and Chris Jones heavily. He’s not going to get any pass rush, but he can help replacement some of Vince Wilfork’s presence against the run.

He was given an unreasonable 3-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season by the Eagles, but the Eagles already paid more than 3 million of the 3.75 million guaranteed so the Patriots will essentially be paying him the veteran’s minimum weekly for the remainder of the season and can cut him penalty free this off-season, rather than paying him base salaries of 3.75 million and 3.5 million respectively in 2014 and 2015. The Patriots also gave up very little for him, as they sent a 5th rounder for him and a 6th rounder. I don’t love the deal or anything, but the price was right and he’ll fill a need.

Grade: B

Trade for Eagles: The Eagles aren’t really out of it at 3-5, only a game back of the Cowboys for the division in the crappy NFC East. Sopoaga isn’t a huge part of the team or anything, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense to start selling off starters at this point. 3rd round rookie Bennie Logan will probably take over for him on the nose, but he’s a little undersized at 6-2 309 and he’s inexperienced with only 175 snaps played in 8 games. The Eagles didn’t get a lot of compensation either. One positive: the deal will accelerate his cap hit so it’ll count against this year’s cap, when they have room, rather than next season’s, which will give them some more freedom in free agency.

Grade: C

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)

Josh Freeman was awful last week. He threw 33 incompletions (only 3 of which were drops) on 20 of 53 passing for 190 yards and an interception against a team that was previously one of the worst in the NFL defensively. ProFootballFocus said his performance graded out as the worst they’ve graded since they started in 2008 and it pretty much broke their grading system. It wasn’t totally his fault though. He definitely deserves a lot of the blame because his mechanics and accuracy looked awful, but he wasn’t put in a situation to succeed by the coaching staff. He had been with the team just 14 days and clearly didn’t know the playbook and understandably so.

The Vikings are lucky that he won’t be able go this week with a concussion (or they’re smart for inventing a concussion). Christian Ponder isn’t very good because of his limited arm, but he at least knows the playbook. He played pretty well at home against the Packers last year, completing 16 of 28 for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, as his lack of arm strength can kind of be hidden inside in a dome where there is no wind. For that reason, I can’t put a lot of confidence in the Packers even though they should be the right side. They’ll be completely focused with only a game at home for the Bears and Josh McCown next week. Divisional road favorites are 36-22 ATS before being divisional away favorites since 2002.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)

This is one I could go either way on. This line has shifted in a big way over the past week, going from -5 to -11.5, but then again, that might be warranted considering the Rams lost Sam Bradford for the season with a torn ACL and will now turn to Kellen Clemens for the rest of the season. The Seahawks generally struggle on the road, going 26-38 ATS on the road since 2006. However, they have covered 7 of their last 9 opportunities on the road over the past calendar year or so. They’ve also been decent as road favorites, even dating back to 2006, going 9-11 ATS. They’ve also been decent in their second straight road game, going 7-8 ATS since 2006.

The Rams are also in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs, as teams are 65-90 ATS in that situation since 2002. I’m taking the Seahawks, but I’m not very confident. We could see a backdoor cover or something along those lines, especially since road favorites of 7.5 or more are 3-16 ATS since 2011. The Seahawks have a very good chance at a blowout though.

Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis -11.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 49-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (38-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Giants have room to play with here because they are 5.5 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, I question how even these teams are. Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record at 3-4 as the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined 3-17 record. They have a terrible defense, which allows their opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, despite the easy schedule. Their offense is strong, moving the chains at a 76% rate, but not enough to keep pace with what their defense is allowing.

However, the Giants are even worse in that aspect. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate and they are only moving the chains at a 66% rate. Part of that has to do with their terrible turnover margin though. Their turnover margin is a league worst -14, but Eli Manning probably won’t throw an interception on 5.6% of his passes going forward, considering his career rate is 3.4%. The Giants also probably won’t recover just 40% of their fumbles going forward. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent, so this might not kill them going forward like it has thus far.

That being said, they didn’t look good against Minnesota, despite winning the turnover margin by 2. They looked much better against the Bears, when they lost the turnover margin by 3, but only lost the game by 6 and would have probably won in Chicago if not for a pick six. On paper, they are the more talented of these two teams, but games aren’t played on paper and there’s a chance they just are a marginal and inconsistent team all season. That being said, I’m afraid to go against them with the trend on their side given that I do believe they’re the better team on paper. They’re also a dangerous team as road underdogs in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, going 33-19 ATS as road dogs since 2004. I’m taking the Giants, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)

The Falcons are 2-4, but they are better than their record. All 6 of their games have been close and all 4 of their losses were winnable games lost by a touchdown or less. They’ve also had a very tough schedule, as, with the exception of the winless Buccaneers last week, all of their opponents this season are 3-4 or better.

Their defense is horrific, one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate that is only 1/10th of a percent better than the last place Jacksonville Jaguars. However, they still have Matt Ryan, who is doing an unheralded good job leading this offense, despite injuries all over his receiving corps and struggles from his offensive line. The offense is moving the chains at a 79% rate and they get a boost this week as Steven Jackson is expected to return from injury to hopefully provide some more balance, though it’s hard to trust a 30-year-old back coming off an injury.

Still, I think they are definitely better than the Cardinals, who are moving the chains at a 71% rate and allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74% rate. The Cardinals are also in a bad spot as small home favorites before a bye. Teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 20th (Falcons) and 23rd (Cardinals) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons are in a bad spot and could be distracted by a road game in Carolina next week. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. Still, I like the Falcons’ chances of not just covering this small spread, but also winning the pulling the upset and winning game outright.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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