Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

The Panthers are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and have the 5th best point differential in the NFL, on the strength of the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 3rd best rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, Vegas knows this too as this line is pretty high at 7.5. We are getting some line value with the Panthers as I have this line calculated at -10, but not a ton. The Panthers also always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 31-13 win over the Buccaneers, they are now 4-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.0 points per game.

The Falcons are in a good situation too though. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They also usually bounce back well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, going 20-7 ATS off of a loss since he took over in 2008, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be distracted with a trip to San Francisco on deck. Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Atlanta could be distracted as well with a home game against the Seahawks on deck, but they really need this divisional game to save their season so they should be focused. As long as the line is bigger than 7, I’m going to take the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 30 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low

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