Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4)

The Cowboys are in a bad spot this week in between a crushing loss in Detroit and a tough game in New Orleans. This home game against the Vikings is the definition of a trap game.  Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Meanwhile, favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again are 73-94 ATS. On top of that, the Cowboys haven’t been a very good team as big home favorites, going 5-10 ATS as home favorites of 6 or more since the new Cowboy Stadium opened in 2009.

It’s not going to be very big play on the Vikings at all though because they are a poorly quarterbacked team who we aren’t really getting any significant line value with. They are also expected to be without three starters in the secondary. However, they should be the right side. There’s a very good chance that, even if the Vikings get dominated, they could lead a garbage time cover against Dallas’ terrible defense, which is expected to be without DeMarcus Ware again. The Cowboys are my Survivor Pick though.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Minnesota Vikings 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Minnesota +10

Confidence: Low

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