Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.
The Giants, however, sit at 3-6 and would need to go 4-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. Sure, they’ve won 3 straight, but over Oakland, Minnesota, and a Philadelphia team that has lost 10 straight at home. They haven’t looked good in any of them. The turnover margin has been a big problem, as they are -13 in turnovers, and that’s inconsistent, but that’s not their only issue. They have just 164 first downs to 50 punts (3.28 to 1), as opposed to 187 first downs to 45 punts for their opponents (4.16 to 1). When you take turnovers and failed 4th downs into account, they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that is 30th in the NFL.
They don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more over anyone. They didn’t deserve it last week, when they failed to cover in this exact same situation at home for the Raiders. And they certainly don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more against a Green Bay team that is better than people think. Yes, they’ve seemed lost without Aaron Rodgers, but remember, this is probably going to be the first time (barring another injury) in 3 weeks that they have the quarterback who prepared all week for this game make it into the 2nd quarter and beyond.
Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which led to an even more unprepared Scott Tolzien coming into the game, 6 days removed from the practice squad. He completed 24 of 39 for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Tolzien is now the starter going forward, until Rodgers comes back, with Wallace going on IR. He’ll have all week to prepare for this game.
Tolzien doesn’t have a good arm, but remember, this is the same coaching staff that made Matt Flynn look not just passable, but deserving of a starting job elsewhere at one point. They have a solid group of veteran’s around him. Clay Matthews’ 2nd game back helps the defense and they still have talent at the skill positions at offense, with guys like Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson. This line suggests the Packers are one of the worst teams in the NFL and comparable to the Oakland Raiders. That’s not true at all.
Even with an unprepared Scott Tolzien under center, the Packers only lost 28-13 at home to the Eagles. The Raiders lost 49-20 the week before. If they can cover in New York as 6 point underdogs, so can the Packers. On top of that, the Giants usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later, including a non-cover last week. If I didn’t already love Washington +3.5 in Philadelphia this week, this would be my Pick of the Week.
Green Bay Packers 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +200
Pick against spread: Green Bay +6
Confidence: High
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