Minnesota Vikings (2-7) at Seattle Seahawks (9-1)

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine for this game, but the schedule gets much tougher as they go to Seattle, arguably the toughest place in the NFL to play.

The Seahawks have been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-17 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-9 ATS as home favorites, and 10-3 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 9-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season. They’ve won all 12 games at home over the past 2 seasons by an average of 17.7 points per game. The Vikings are a below average team that could get completely destroyed.

The Buccaneers did almost pull the massive upset in Seattle two weeks ago, but I think that was a fluke, not a new trend. Seahawks got back on track in Atlanta last week and now get Percy Harvin back. He might not play a full set of snaps, but his presence certainly won’t hurt. Also, Minnesota is worse than Tampa Bay, thanks largely to a terrible stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 72% for their offense. That differential ranks 31^st in the NFL. The Seahawks rank 6^th, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be at about 11.5, before you even get into the Seahawks home dominance. Even at 12.5, this line is too low.

The Seahawks are also distraction free with a bye coming up. Home favorites of 7 or more are 40-14 ATS before a bye since 2002. It makes perfect sense. Dominant teams are able to dominate when they know they have a week off coming up. The Vikings, meanwhile, could be distracted as they have to head to Green Bay next week, a big rivalry game. It might not be a huge distraction, but enough to prevent them from keeping it close with a vastly superior opponent. Teams are 47-74 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road-dogs. It’s a strong play and a projected blowout victory for the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Minnesota Vikings 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: High

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