Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)

The Chiefs are 9-0 and 8 point underdogs. How rare is that? Well, since 1989, no 9-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. The Chiefs are 8 point underdogs. No 8-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. If you want to find an undefeated team that has been underdogs of this amount, you’d have to go back to 1997, when the 5-0 Buccaneers were 8 point underdogs in Green Bay (for the record, they covered, but did not win).

Some people might look at that and think “how can the Chiefs not cover?” and apparently that’s what people are doing as the majority of the money is on the underdog here. I think the opposite. The odds makers must have a good reason for making them underdogs of this amount. It’s not like undefeated dogs are an automatic cover. 5-0 or better teams are 7-6 ATS since 1989 and 4-0 or better teams are 14-14 ATS and the fact that the public is on Kansas City makes me think this is a trap line. There’s a reason the odds makers always win in the long run.

So why do the Chiefs deserve to be 8 point underdogs? For one thing, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, according to DVOA and that doesn’t even take into account they’ve faced 3^rd string quarterbacks in their last 3 games and backup quarterbacks in 4 of their last 5 games. The last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Jeff Tuel. Peyton Manning represents an obvious contrast from those 5.

The Broncos have had an easily schedule as well, 31^st in terms of DVOA, but there are a couple of differences. For one thing, the Broncos have faced just one backup quarterback (Chad Henne and the Jaguars). The Broncos have also been more impressive in their victories, with a +133 point differential, as opposed to +104 for Kansas City. That also takes into account that the Chiefs have 7 return touchdowns, which have accounted for 49 of those points. As a result, the Chiefs rank just 23^rd in points per drive, despite the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Return touchdowns are very tough to rely on, especially against the Broncos. The Chiefs have also been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin (+15) and an unsustainable rate of recovering fumbles (66.7%), which is a large part of the reason why the Chiefs are +7 in return touchdowns. The Broncos, meanwhile, are just +2 in turnovers, despite having Peyton Manning under center, largely as a result of a 36.7% fumble recovery rate. The Chiefs may rank 1^st in points per drive allowed, but they rank just 6^th in net points per drive, while the Broncos rank 1^st. In terms of DVOA, the Broncos rank 1^st, while the Chiefs rank 8^th. That’s why this line makes sense.

As I said, I automatically lean towards the Broncos because I think this is a trap line. However, there are reasons why I’m not confident in the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s high ankle sprain and the uncertainty that comes with it is one reason. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. The Chiefs host the Chargers next week, which mean they won’t have any distractions to worry about.

Also, Andy Reid’s extraordinary record off of a bye has to be taken into account. As a Head Coach with the Eagles, Andy Reid was 14-1 off of a regular season bye, with that one loss coming in last year’s train wreck of a season. Of course, he’s only once been underdogs over more than 3 off of a regular season bye so his teams have never been as challenged as the Chiefs will be against the Broncos this week. However, against the spread, he is 11-4 ATS off of a bye and even if the Chiefs don’t win, there’s a lot of room to cover anyway. At the end of the day, I’m fading the trap line, but I’m not confident at all.

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Denver -8

Confidence: None

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