Detroit Lions (6-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
The Steelers are 3-6, but they are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which is a differential that ranks 17th in the NFL. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11 on the season), an inability to recover fumbles (28.6%), and return touchdowns (-2 in return touchdowns), but those things are all related and all very inconsistent. The Lions are a good team, moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, but we’re still getting some line value with Pittsburgh +3.
The Lions are also in a bad spot after last week’s close win in Chicago. Favorites are 28-59 ATS since 2002 off of a win by 1-3 as road favorites the week before. They have a one game lead on the division, an easy schedule upcoming, and the two teams within a game of them in the division are missing their starting quarterbacks with injury. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they started to coast a little bit. As long as we’re getting a field goal with the Steelers, they should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick +125
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3
Confidence: Low
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