New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)

This line was at 6.5 last week. Now it’s at 9 and the public is still all over the Saints. The Saints are awesome and the Falcons suck. How can the Saints not win by double digits right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as the public is all over the Saints. That alone leads me to think about going with Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t appeared to put forth much effort over the past few weeks, losing 4 straight by a combined 74 points. It’s very possible that they’ve just quit as they are unaccustomed to this kind of losing. However, I think they’re still capable of putting forth a decent performance at home and keep this competitive in a game they actually care about, with the rival Saints coming to town.

They have always done well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, at least until this year. Off of a loss, they are 20-10 ATS since 2008, though just 2-5 ATS this season. I think they can summon some of that for this one, now that they’ve officially hit rock bottom and can’t go any deeper. They’ve also been a very good home team in the Mike Smith era, going 30-12 straight up. They are just 2-3 there this year, but they’ve still been a much better home team than road team and of their recent rough stretch, only one game was at home.

The Saints, meanwhile, have not been the same team on the road over the past few years. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints are an incredibly dominant home team, a huge part of the reason why they are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, but they’re not the same on the road.

I think this line might be a little inflated. The Saints could also be caught looking forward to Seattle next week and Carolina the week after that, after last week’s big win over the 49ers. I’m not confident at all though because it’s very possible the Falcons have just mailed in the season and the Saints are legitimately a top-3 team in the NFL, while the Falcons might be a bottom-3 team, but the Falcons should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta +9

Confidence: None

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