San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7)

The 49ers have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. It might not seem that way because they’ve lost back-to-back games on separate occasions twice this season. However, they are 6-3 ATS off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, including 8-3 ATS if you include week 1 losses off of a post-season loss. Even that’s misleading because those 3 ATS losses include a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. Last week, they were the responsible for the Saints not covering at home under Sean Payton for first time since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 streak covers with a push.

They’ve lost off of a loss just twice in the Jim Harbaugh era (as opposed to 8 wins), both times this season, and one of those was the closest game the Saints had played at home under Sean Payton in 14 games. The other one was a huge blowout at home at the hands of the Colts, but, when you look at the whole sample size, that’s clearly the fluke. Meanwhile, those 8 wins came by an average of 18 points per game. Finally, in their only instance in the Jim Harbaugh era off of back-to-back losses, they won 35-11 in St. Louis as 3 point favorites. They could easily blowout the Redskins here.

The 49ers usually take care of business and dominate weaker opponents, which is exactly what the Redskins are. In the Jim Harbaugh era, they are 20-11 ATS as 3+ point favorites, including 7-4 ATS on the road. Colin Kaepernick is struggling on the season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 71 of 114 for 1055 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries in 5 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.4 points per game.

Good defenses seem to be able to stifle Kaepernick, but Washington has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so he should be able to have a great game. The 49ers defense is as good as it’s ever been, so that could very easily lead to a blowout win here, against the Redskins team that is essentially eliminated and going through what appears to be an internal struggle. They might just through in the towel on this season. The 49ers are built to blowout bad teams if they can establish themselves.

The 49ers are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the 49ers will be alert the whole time. The 49ers have no distractions, with a home game against the Rams next up, coming off a loss, and should be able to take care of business by blowing out an inferior opponent.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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