Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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