Pittsburgh Steelers (4-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-6)

The Steelers may be 4-6, but they’re better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 13^th in the NFL. They are 4-2 since the bye, after their 0-4 start. They started the season with a -11 turnover margin in the first 4 games of the season, recovering 18.2% of fumbles that hit the ground. Since then, their turnover margin has been +3 over the past 6 games and their rate of recovering fumbles has increased to 34.8%.

That was predictable and they seem to have put their issues behind them, beating 4 teams with a combined 19-22 record in the process, so they aren’t exactly beating up on cupcakes. They did get blown out in New England, but there’s not a ton of shame in that and they could have easily won in Oakland as well, if they hadn’t allowed the longest touchdown run by a quarterback ever and miss several makeable field goals.

The Browns aren’t as good. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which ranks 24^th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here, if it’s only by one point. Going into last week, they were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden wasn’t their starting quarterback, only losing in Kansas City in a close game. However, Jason Campbell fell apart last week, completing 27 of 56 for 248 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. It’s hard to trust him this week. The Steelers should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1

Confidence: Low

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