Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)

It’s crazy how quickly a team can go from overrated to underrated in the blink of an eye in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs were 8 point underdogs in Denver and the public refused to believe that a 9-0 team possibly deserved to be 8 point underdogs anywhere. The Broncos won by 10 and the odds makers won money. Now two weeks later, the Broncos are in Kansas City and favored by 5.5 points and the public is all over them, which could set the odds makers up to win money again.

Being favored by 5.5 points on the road is equivalent to being favored by 11.5 points at home. So just because the Chiefs failed to cover the spread by 2 points, the line deserved to move 3.5 points? Sure, the Chiefs lost to the Chargers last week, but the Broncos didn’t look great in a loss in New England either. This line has actually shifted 2 points since last week as the early line was -3.5. The Chiefs will be without Justin Houston in this one with injury, but they still have a lot of talented defensive players, including Derrick Johnson, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson, and Eric Berry, all of whom are playing at a borderline Pro-Bowl level. Tamba Hali also is and he’ll be back for this one, after missing the final 3 quarters or so of their loss to San Diego, in which they surrendered 41 points.

There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in the San Diego game. Having at least Hali back will be a big boost and it also helps that the Chiefs have a week to game plan for life without Houston. Losing someone like that mid-game is really rough (even ignoring they also lost Hali), but at least they know they’ll be without him this time around.

You could also argue the Chargers are a better offensive team than the Broncos. After all, they lead the NFL, moving the chains at over an 82% rate, while the Broncos now rank 3^rd behind San Diego and New Orleans, moving them at an 81% rate. They’ve also really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards (7.26 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is.

The Chiefs should be able to keep him in check, even without Justin Houston. After all, they did hold him and the Broncos to a season low 27 points in Denver two weeks ago. People seem to be completely discounting how well this defense played over the first nine games of the season because of the last 2 games. Their offense still has issues, but their defense is still very good and there’s no way they deserve to be 5.5 point underdogs at home to anyone. Football Outsiders still has them as their 9^th ranked team in terms of DVOA, which takes into account strength of schedule, recovering fumbles, scoring on returns, all of the things that helped the Chiefs started 9-0. I think that’s accurate.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot here, unlike last week. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are the ones in the bad spot. They just lost in overtime in a crushing defeat in New England.  Teams are 15-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime since 2002. Worst case scenario, I think the Chiefs can keep it within a field goal or maybe 4 points, but I think they have a very good chance of actually winning the game outright.

Denver Broncos 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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