New England Patriots (8-3) at Houston Texans (2-9)

The Raiders beat the Texans by 5 in Houston. The Jaguars beat the Texans by 7 in Houston. Surely the Patriots can beat them by 9 or more in Houston right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as almost all of the action is on New England, but, as is often the case, it’s not that simple. There’s a reason why the odds makers always win in the long run.

I compare this game to last week’s Atlanta/New Orleans game, in which the Falcons kept it within 4 as 9 point home underdogs to the Saints, with all of the public action going on New Orleans because, “how could they not cover right?” Atlanta, like Houston, was a once proud team that had seemed to have quit on the season, not being used to that kind of losing and, as a result, they had lost 4 straight by a combined 74 coming in. However, they were able to get up for one last shot at upsetting a huge rival and played pretty well. I think Houston could do the same thing. This could easily be their Super Bowl, much like New Orleans was Atlanta’s Super Bowl last week. Don’t think the Texans have forgotten how the Patriots derailed their season last year.

The Texans are better than their record. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-12) and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns) and by a 2-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They’ve only had 3 losses by more than a touchdown so I wouldn’t be so sure the Patriots come in and roll them over, especially since the Patriots have just 3 wins by a touchdown or more and have yet to cover a line bigger than a touchdown this season. Also, teams are 6-18 ATS as 7.5+ point road favorites over the past 3 seasons. It’s very hard to cover this type of spread.

Football Outsiders, for some reason, doesn’t think the Texans are better than their record, as they come in at 30^th in terms of DVOA, but I disagree with that. They are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential that is 15^th in the NFL. I don’t think they are the 15^th best team in the NFL, but I think they’re better than 30^th. They’re still solid in both trenches and we’re definitely getting some line value with them.

They’re also in a very good spot here. Teams who are non-divisional home underdogs are 40-11 ATS before being divisional road favorites, which they will be in Jacksonville next week. Teams in that dynamic tend to be completely focused and I think the Texans will be here. Also, teams are 99-56 ATS as underdogs off of 7+ straight losses. The public tends to want to stay away from teams on a long losing streak, and understandably so. That gives us value with the team on the long losing streak. The Patriots, meanwhile, could come out a little bit flat after last week’s huge win. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think and I’m pretty confident in Houston +9.

New England Patriots 24 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +9

Confidence: High

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