Last week: 16 (+1)
Record: 5-4
On bye.
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Last week: 16 (+1)
Record: 5-4
On bye.
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Last week: 19 (+3)
Record: 5-4
It might sound crazy, but if the 49ers lose in New Orleans this week, and the Cardinals win in Jacksonville, they’ll have the same record at 6-4. I don’t expect that to hold until the end of the season, but the Cardinals are a solid football team. They’ve beaten both Detroit and Carolina, two likely playoff teams, this season. Ultimately, poor quarterback play in the loaded NFC will probably keep them out, but they shouldn’t be taken lightly at all.
Week 10 Studs
RE Calais Campbell
LOLB John Abraham
MLB Karlos Dansby
Week 10 Duds
RT Eric Winston
LG Daryn Colledge
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Last week: 18 (+1)
Record: 4-5
The Ravens essentially staved off elimination at home last week, beating Cincinnati in a game that never should have gone to overtime. They are now 26-4 at home since 2010 and, as average as they’ve been this year, they are still 3-1 there, with the one loss coming by 2 to the Packers. They still have 4 home games to go so they certainly aren’t out of the playoff picture, a game back of the 2nd wild card. If they make the playoffs, it’ll be because of their loaded defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68% rate, not their offense that is moving it at the same rate.
Week 10 Studs
MLB Daryl Smith
CB Jimmy Smith
CB Lardarius Webb
Week 10 Duds
QB Joe Flacco
WR Marlon Brown
RT Michael Oher
LG AQ Shipley
RG Marshal Yanda
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Last week: 17 (-1)
Record: 3-7
The Bills have 6 games remaining and will probably be favored in 5 of them, including 3 at home, where they have been very good, beating Carolina and Baltimore and almost beating Kansas City, New England, and Cincinnati. EJ Manuel struggled in his first game back, but he’ll get healthy and he won’t have to deal with rookie destroyer Dick LeBeau every week. CJ Spiller is getting healthier and so is their secondary. They’re 3-7, but don’t be surprised if they finish 8-8.
Week 10 Studs
RE Kyle Williams
LE Alan Branch
ROLB Jerry Hughes
DT Marcell Dareus
SS Aaron Williams
Week 10 Duds
QB EJ Manuel
CB Stephon Gilmore
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Last week: 22 (+3)
Record: 5-5
One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. They’ll try to end that streak at home against the Redskins this week.
Week 10 Studs
RB LeSean McCoy
LG Evan Mathis
TE Brent Celek
CB Roc Carmichael
Week 10 Duds
RE Fletcher Cox
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Last week: 14 (-6)
Record: 5-5
It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and missed a field goal and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 9 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them, missing a field goal on one of the others and punting on the other one of the others. It was an absurd destruction. Sean Lee is out indefinitely and the Cowboys might just be out of functional football players on defense. Anthony Spencer is done for the year, while Jay Ratliff’s year never started. DeMarcus Ware is still limited with injury, while Jason Hatcher is out indefinitely. Youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter never took the next step. They were counting on building around those guys.
Week 10 Studs
RG Mackenzy Bernadeau
Week 10 Duds
LE George Selvie
LOLB Bruce Carter
DT Jairus Wynn
MLB Sean Lee
MLB Ernie Sims
CB Micah Pellarin
FS Barry Church
SS Jeff Heath
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Last week: 20 (-1)
Record: 4-5
On bye.
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Last week: 21 (-1)
Record: 2-7
Despite their 2-7 record, the Texans actually rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They probably aren’t as good as that (Football Outsiders has them 29th in DVOA), but they’ve just been killed by turnovers (-13) and return touchdowns (-7 touchdowns). They won’t make the playoffs are anything, but they’ll pull some “upsets” and be underrated down the stretch.
Week 10 Studs
LE JJ Watt
MLB Daryl Sharpton
Week 10 Duds
LG Wade Smith
RG Brandon Brooks
ROLB Whitney Mercilus
CB Brice McCain
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Last week: 23 (+0)
Record: 3-6
The Redskins are at 3-6, which is right where they were last season when they ripped off 7 straight wins and won the division. The difference this year is that their remaining schedule is harder and their team isn’t as good. Last season, they’re final 7 opponents finished 48-64. This year, their final 7 opponents currently are a combined 37-36. Robert Griffin is also not the same quarterback he was last year and their team is not dominating the turnover battle like they did last year, when they finished +17. The good news is they play in the easiest division in football and it won’t take 10 wins to win like last year, but I still have Philadelphia and Dallas slightly ahead of them.
Week 10 Studs
QB Robert Griffin
LT Trent Williams
TE Jordan Reed
Week 10 Duds
LG Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Chris Chester
LOLB Ryan Kerrigan
MLB London Fletcher
FS Brandon Meriweather
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Last week: 24 (+0)
Record: 3-6
Dick LeBeau is now 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks in his career after befuddling EJ Manuel and the Bills last week, in a 23-10 loss that wasn’t even as close as that (Buffalo’s touchdown was in garbage time). Manuel completed 22 of 39 for 155 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in the loss. The Steelers are only 2 games out of a wild card, holding the tiebreaker over the Jets. They’ll have to beat a non-rookie quarterback this week to stay alive as the Lions come to town. They are better than their record, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as to 74% for their opponents, but I don’t have a strong read on them really.
Week 10 Studs
FS Ryan Clark
Week 10 Duds
RB Le’Veon Bell
C Fernando Velasco
LG Guy Whimper
TE Heath Miller
ROLB Jason Worilds
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