Month: November 2013

Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

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Last week: 25 (+0)

Record: 4-5

The Incognito/Martin situation and the loss of two starters on the offensive line were a big part of it, but the Dolphins’ loss to the Buccaneers was largely a result of this team’s lack of talent. GM Jeff Ireland should be fired, but not because of the Incognito/Martin situation. How much money did he spend on this shit show? They have been very good in both red zone, allowing a touchdown on 51.5% of red zone attempts, 11th, and scoring one on 64.3% of red zone attempts, 5th. However, they are moving the chains at just a 70% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. Off-season acquisitions Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, and Philip Wheeler have not paid off. They’ll finish pretty far near the bottom at the end of the season.

Week 10 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

WR Rishard Matthews

DT Randy Starks

LE Derrick Shelby

CB Brent Grimes

Week 10 Duds

MLB Dannell Ellerbe

OLB Philip Wheeler

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 3-6

Sure, the Giants have won 3 straight, but they were against the Raiders, Vikings, and Eagles, who haven’t won at home in 10 straight games. They weren’t particularly convincing in any of them. That being said, they are in the worst division in football by far and only a game and a half back. If they were to make the playoffs, they would be one of the worst teams to ever make the post-season, as they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, 30th in the NFL. I guess you can’t count them out though.

Week 10 Studs

RB Andre Brown

FB John Conner

DT Cullen Jenkins

CB Tramaine McBride

Week 10 Duds

RG David Diehl

C Jim Cordle

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+1)

Record 4-6

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. The Rams will probably only be favored once more going forward, at home for Tampa Bay. Don’t be fooled by their fluky wins. With the exception of those two wins, the Rams’ other 2 wins have come over the Jaguars and by a field goal at home over the Cardinals. Don’t be fooled by their record. This isn’t even an average football team.

Week 10 Studs

LE William Hayes

CB Trumaine Johnson

Week 10 Duds

RB Zac Stacy

TE Jared Cook

CB Janoris Jenkins

CB Cortland Finnegan

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 2-7

Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, behind Tampa Bay, where they go this week. I had this team winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. But I guess that’s what happens when he has nothing functional around him.

Week 10 Studs

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Week 10 Duds

C Peter Konz

DT Peria Jerry

MLB Akeem Dent

FS Thomas DeCoud

SS William Moore

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-6

The league seems to have figured out Terrelle Pryor. Over his past 4 games, he’s completed 61 of 120 for 714 yards, 1 touchdown, and 8 interceptions. The Raiders blew one of their best chances to win another game the rest of the way, losing in New York to the Giants this week. They go to Houston this week and then they’re home for Tennessee, but after that, they have 5 straight games against teams that are currently .500 at better. They might not finish with much more than 3 or 4 wins. They have a lot of building to do this off-season.

Week 10 Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski

ROLB Sio Moore

DT Pat Sims

SS Usama Young

Week 10 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LT Khalif Barnes

RT Menelik Watson

LE Jason Hunter

MLB Nick Roach

CB Phillip Adams

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-7

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine going forward and to keep his starting job, but the schedule gets a lot tougher, with trips to Seattle, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Cincinnati to go with home games against Chicago, Philadelphia, and Detroit. It’s very, very possible we see another quarterback change for the Vikings at some point. They aren’t paying Josh Freeman 3 million for one start and a half of a season riding 3rd string.

Week 10 Studs

TE John Carlson

LE Everson Griffen

DT Kevin Williams

Week 10 Duds

RE Jared Allen

ROLB Chad Greenway

DT Chris Baker

MLB Erin Henderson

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-8

Like the Jaguars, the Buccaneers were going to win a game at some point and when the distracted and overrated Dolphins rode into town, it presented an excellent opportunity for them to win. The Buccaneers’ win was more impressive than the Jaguars’ because they didn’t rely on the turnover margin to do so. The Buccaneers in general are a more impressive team. Their point differential is -63, as opposed to -176 for the Jaguars. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are by far dead last, while the Buccaneers are actually 20th. The Jaguars are dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th. The Buccaneers have several very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. Even if the Buccaneers had lost, they’d be above the Jaguars.

Week 10 Studs

DT Gerald McCoy

MLB Mason Foster

LOLB Lavonte David

SS Mark Barron

Week 10 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

RE Adrian Clayborn

CB Leonard Johnson

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-8

As I said, the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0-16. That win doesn’t change my opinion on the team. They’re still a very, very bad football team who was able to take advantage of a distracted Tennessee team, who was looking forward to Indianapolis on Thursday Night. The Titans weren’t getting up for the Jaguars in that situation and when they lost their quarterback and the turnover battle (4 to 2, including 3 fumbles to 1), it just made it worse. This is still the worst team in the NFL, moving the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, and now that they have a win, teams might not take them as lightly.

Week 10 Studs

TE Marcedes Lewis

ROLB Geno Hayes

CB Dwayne Gratz

Week 10 Duds

QB Chad Henne

RT Austin Pasztor

RG Uche Nwaneri

C Brad Meester

TE Clay Harbor

MLB Paul Posluszny

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Both of these teams lost as huge home favorites last week, the Colts lost 38-8 at home to the Rams and the Titans losing 29-27 to the Jaguars. It’s very likely both teams were caught looking forward to this huge divisional game and that last week’s performance was just a fluke for both teams. Both teams won the first down battle despite the loss and they lost for fluky reasons. The Titans fumbled 3 times and lost the turnover battle by 2, as a result.

Meanwhile, there are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. I think we can give both of these teams a pass for what happened last week and essentially just approach this game is if neither of those games ever happened.

Yes, the Titans lost Jake Locker for the season last week, but he wasn’t the reason they were in the hunt. That would be their solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Derrick Morgan, and others, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. There’s a reason they were competitive with both Kansas City and Seattle even without Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick will have the whole week to prepare for this week and he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides, it’s very possible the Colts recent struggles (including a near loss in Houston) are related to the loss of Reggie Wayne, who they lost against Denver before the bye. They haven’t been the same without him.

I’m not saying the Titans are definitely going to win this game, but the public seems to be giving the Colts a pass for last week, but not the Titans, even though they were in the same situation. The public is all over the Colts -3 because “how can the Colts not beat the Titans by 3 or more?” I love fading heavy public favorites when an opportunity presents itself and I also love getting a field goal or more with a home team unless that team is completely terrible. Remember, the Colts were 10 point favorites over the Rams last week. This line suggests the Colts would be 9 point favorites over the Titans. Considering the Titans covered as 3 point favorites in St. Louis 2 weeks ago, that makes no sense. I’m not confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 8 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them. It was an absurd destruction.

The Saints have now not just won, but covered in 14 straight home games under Sean Payton. They’ve won these games by an average of 22 points per game, with only two being decided by 10 points or less and none being decided by fewer than 6 points. As a result of last week, the Saints now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 70% for opponents. The 49ers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, ranking 10th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9 points, before you even take into account the Saints’ home dominance.

So Saints -3.5 should be a no brainer right? Well, not necessarily. The 49ers are coming off of a loss to the Panthers and they have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 6-3 ATS off a loss under Jim Harbaugh, including 8-3 ATS if you take into account week 1 games off of a playoff loss. If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out.

With the exception of a fluky home loss to the Colts, they have only lost back-to-back games once in the Jim Harbaugh era. If you exclude that Colts game, they have won all 8 of their regular season games off of a loss by an average of 18 points per game. This line has actually shifted past the key number of 3 in the past week, as it was at 2.5 last week and the public is still all over the Saints. I hate backing huge publicly backed sides and that could be an overreaction to the 49ers loss to a very underrated Panthers team. Of course, it could also be a proper reaction to the Saints’ dominant home performance over the Cowboys.

The 49ers are also in a good spot. Non-divisional road dogs are 37-24 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites. The 49ers have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington up next. The Saints, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. Teams are 27-50 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall victim to this big time last week, both losing straight up as huge home favorites. However, it’s unlikely that the Saints overlook the 49ers in favor of a trip to the 2-7 Falcons next week.

Besides, teams are 50-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Teams are 9-11 ATS in that situation before a Thursday Night Game since 1989. That’s not a big sample size and it’s not a strong trend or anything, but I think, if anything, the non-divisional home favorites before divisional road favorites trend should cancel out the Thursday Night trend. I don’t think the Saints will be nearly as distracted as the Colts and Titans were last week, if they are at all.

It’s not a massive play on the Saints or anything, but I think it’s essentially an auto-bet on the Saints at home at this point. The Saints could also carry over momentum from last week’s win, as teams are 45-28 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they score 48 or more points. If Vernon Davis is ruled out with his concussion, I’ll make this a high confidence pick because Colin Kaepernick has been pretty lost without him this season, but for now it’s a medium confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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