Month: November 2013

New England Patriots: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 7-2

Last week, I criticized Tom Brady’s play with the caveat that I believed he could turn it around, but that I’d need to see it to believe it. Well I saw it last week. Brady’s passes had so much more life on them and his receiving corps stepped up big time. Aaron Dobson appears to have broken out as a legitimate outside receiver, while Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski both seem to be as good as you can expect them to be. Shane Vereen is expected back after the bye to give Brady a much needed high percentage checkdown target. The defense, despite the absence of Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, is still solid and will get Aqib Talib back after the bye. This is a legitimate contender again if they can keep it up. They’ve have several challenges after the bye, including trips to Carolina and Baltimore, as well as a huge home game against the Broncos which could be for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Week 9 Studs

QB Tom Brady

TE Rob Gronkowski

RE Chandler Jones

LE Rob Ninkovich

Week 9 Duds

LG Logan Mankins

TE Michael Hoomananwanui

CB Alfonzo Dennard

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 6-2

Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.

Week 9 Studs

WR TY Hilton

DT Aubrayo Franklin

MLB Pat Angerer

Week 9 Duds

LG Hugh Thornton

RG Mike McGlynn

MLB Jerrell Freeman

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+1)

Record: 9-0

It’s worth noting that the Bills’ offense led by Jeff Tuel outscored the Chiefs’ offense led by Alex Smith. The Bills won by 10 because of two return touchdowns, but that’s not a sustainable method of offense. Their schedule gets a lot harder from here on out. Their first 9 opponents were a combined 27-49 and they’ve faced 3 straight 3rd string quarterbacks, but their next 7 opponents are a combined 34-23, including Denver twice, San Diego twice, and Indianapolis. Fortunately, they get Denver after a bye and Andy Reid is 14-1 off of a regular season bye, only losing last season on a Philadelphia team that eventually finished 4-12. However, I don’t think Reid has ever had a test as hard as on the road against this caliber of opponent. The early line has Denver favored by 7.5 as the odds makers know the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Reid was only an underdog by more than 3 off of a bye once in Philadelphia.

Week 9 Studs

MLB Derrick Johnson

Week 9 Duds

LG Jeff Allen

CB Brandon Flowers

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Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (+2)

Record: 5-3

The Panthers have won 4 straight by 14 or more. Every team since 1990 that has won 4 straight games by a combined 80 points or more with at least a 14 point or higher margin in each game has made the playoffs. Of course, the teams they beat are a combined 6-27. This week will be a real test as they go to San Francisco and face an equally hot 49er team. I think they have enough to at least be competitive. They lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. They rank 3rd in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They’re 3rd in point differential. We’ll know a lot more about this week after this week. They have a tougher schedule going forward, with two against the Saints and one against the Patriots, in addition to this San Francisco game, but I still think they have a chance to win the division and at least make the playoffs. They’re only a game behind New Orleans at this point.

Week 10 Studs

C Ryan Kalil

CB Drayton Florence

Week 10 Duds

None

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Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 6-3

The Bengals are undefeated at home, including impressive wins over the Patriots and the Packers. However, they just aren’t the same team on the road. They are 2-3 on the road and they haven’t won a single game by more than a field goal. They lost in Chicago. They lost in Cleveland (worse than Baltimore did last week). They barely won in Buffalo. They won in Detroit by a field goal. And last week, they lost in Miami. That loss wasn’t the Bengals’ only loss last week. They also lost defensive tackle Geno Atkins for the season with a torn ACL. Even though Atkins hadn’t been playing quite as well he was last season, he still was showing himself to be a top-10 defensive player in the NFL. You can’t just replace a guy like that. On top of that, they’ve already lost top cornerback Leon Hall for the season. Their solid defense might not remain solid for much longer.

Week 9 Studs

RB Giovani Bernard

ROLB James Harrison

Week 9 Duds

RT Andre Smith

C Kyle Cook

TE Jermaine Gresham

TE Tyler Eifert

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5 (-6)

Record: 5-3

Despite all of their injuries, the Packers looked like one of the best teams in the NFL before last week and they looked to only be going up as their schedule got easier and they got guys back from injury, like Clay Matthews this week. However, losing Aaron Rodgers for 4-6 weeks might be the straw that breaks their season. Their schedule isn’t very hard over those 6 weeks (Philadelphia, @ NY Giants, Minnesota, @ Detroit, Atlanta, and @ Dallas), but Seneca Wallace was terrible, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. He’ll be better going forward as he becomes more prepared and more familiar with the offense, but I think the Packers are safely behind the Lions in the NFC North right now unless Rodgers can somehow make it back for Thanksgiving in Detroit.

Week 9 Studs

RB Eddie Lacy

Week 9 Duds

LE Johnny Jolly

MLB AJ Hawk

ROLB Nate Palmer

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Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Titans, Uncategorized

Last week: 15 (+3)

Record: 4-4

The Titans have Jake Locker back and have weathered the worst part of their schedule, which was Kansas City, Seattle, and San Francisco in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Assuming they beat the Jaguars this week, they will be 5-4 going into next week’s Thursday Night Game with the Colts. They play the Colts twice in the 2nd half of the season, but also Jacksonville twice, Houston once, Oakland, and Arizona. Aside from the two Indianapolis games, their only other tough game is against the Broncos. I think this is going to be the 6th seed in the AFC.

Week 9 Studs

FB Colin Mooney

LT Michael Roos

Week 9 Duds

QB Jake Locker

RT Mike Otto

ROLB Akeem Ayers

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (+3)

Record: 5-3

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. They get Jay Cutler back this week, but I don’t think that’s going to solve their problems. Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. Henry Melton is out for the season. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. Charles Tillman is dealing with a debilitating injury. Julius Peppers, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright are all struggling by their standards. They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped and their health has gone downhill. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring.

Week 9 Studs

QB Josh McCown

RB Matt Forte

WR Brandon Marshall

LT Jermon Bushrod

LG Matt Slauson

Week 9 Duds

RT Jordan Mills

SS Major Wright

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