Month: November 2013

Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Steelers, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-6)

Record: 2-6

The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense. I still think they are more likely to go 4-4 the rest of the way than 1-7, but it’s tough to tell. They have the looks of a rough off-season ahead of them as they look to reload and rebuild.

Week 9 Studs

WR Jerricho Cotchery

LE Cameron Heyward

LOLB LaMarr Woodley

Week 9 Studs

C Fernando Velasco

CB William Gay

FS Ryan Clark

SS Troy Polamalu

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-3)

Record: 4-4

I’ll get into the Richie Incognito situation in depth in a different place, but purely on the field, I think it’s going to have a very negative effect. They are probably going to be without 2 of their starting offensive linemen for the season on an offensive line that was already one of the worst in the NFL. It’s also going to be a huge distraction and disruption of team chemistry. I don’t see them being able to get up for winless Tampa Bay this weekend and this isn’t the type of team that can afford to be distracted and unprepared. Largely due to their weak offensive line, they are moving the chains at a mere 70% rate offensively, while their retooled defense is not living up to expectations, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. Their schedule isn’t easy from here on out, especially if they can’t beat Tampa Bay. After Tampa Bay, 5 of their final 7 games are against teams currently 4-4 or better and one of them who isn’t is a sneaky good Buffalo team that already beat them in Miami.

Week 9 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

C Mike Pouncey

LE Cameron Wake

RE Olivier Vernon

Week 9 Duds

LOLB Philip Wheeler

SS Reshad Jones

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-6)

Record: 2-6

There are bad stop units and then there is the Atlanta Falcons’ “stop” unit, which has forced a league worst 30 punts, as well as just 8 takeaways and 2 failed 4th downs. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, which is 3rd worst only to Jacksonville and San Diego. Matt Ryan has done a very admirable job despite losing most of his weapons, completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, leading the offense to a 75% rate of moving the chains. However, they just can’t keep up with what their defense is giving up. Their schedule isn’t easy from here. They are very good at home usually, but they have Seattle, New Orleans, and Carolina all coming to town, with the Redskins being the only opponent representing a very winnable game. On the road, they go to Green Bay (probably once Rodgers returns), San Francisco, and a sneaky good Buffalo team. They do go to Tampa Bay, but there aren’t a lot of easy wins left on this schedule. This is just the season from hell for this football team.

Week 9 Studs

None

Week 9 Duds

DT Peria Jerry

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St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Rams, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 3-6

Kellen Clemens has predictably struggled, completing 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in relief of the injured Sam Bradford. However, the supporting cast has done a good job of rising up around him and, as a result, the Rams have lost their last 2 games by a combined 12 points despite playing a top level Seattle team and a sneaky good Tennessee team. However, both of those games were at home. Now they go on the road to Indianapolis and they might not have enough to keep it together. A look at their schedule suggests that a home game against Tampa Bay might be the only game in which they will be favored going forward so they’ll have to pull a couple of upsets to finish with more than 4 or 5 wins.

Week 9 Studs

LT Jake Long

LE Chris Long

DT Kendall Langford

Week 9 Duds

LG Chris Williams

ROLB JoLonn Dunbar

SS Darian Stewart

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Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-5

The wheels kind of fell off of this scrappy Raider team’s season last week as they allowed an NFL record tying 7 passing touchdowns to Nick Foles in a 49-20 loss. They are moving the chains at a mere 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents and defenses seem to have figured out Terrelle Pryor, who figures to be without Darren McFadden for the foreseeable future. Their home games remaining are all tough, Tennessee, Denver, Kansas City, and their road games aren’t much easier, as they face the Giants, Jets, Houston, San Diego, and Dallas. They might not win much more than a game going forward.

Week 9 Studs

LT Khalif Barnes

Week 9 Duds

QB Terrelle Pryor

LG Lucas Nix

RG Mike Brisiel

LE Jason Hunter

CB DJ Hayden

FS Brandian Ross

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Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Uncategorized, Vikings

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-7

In his last two games, Christian Ponder has completed 42 of 58 for 410 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. However, you have to remember he was facing two defenses in Dallas and Washington that are among the worst in the NFL and he was facing the latter on a short week when they were coming off of an overtime game (teams are 3-17 ATS on Thursday Night after an overtime game). Washington’s terrible “stop” unit made even Matt Cassel look passable when he game on in relief of an injured Christian Ponder. Ponder is expected to be fine going forward and to keep his starting job, but the schedule gets a lot tougher, with trips to Seattle, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Cincinnati to go with home games against Chicago, Philadelphia, and Detroit. It’s very, very possible we see another quarterback change for the Vikings at some point. They aren’t paying Josh Freeman 3 million for one start and a half of a season riding 3rd string.

Week 9 Studs

RB Adrian Peterson

RG Brandon Fusco

RT Phil Loadholt

C John Sullivan

RE Jared Allen

LE Brian Robison

DT Sharrif Floyd

Week 9 Duds

ROLB Marvin Mitchell

ROLB Erin Henderson

CB Marcus Sherels

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-8

The Buccaneers’ near win in Seattle last week just reinforces how difficult football is to predict and how ridiculous it is to suggest that any team is going to go winless (or undefeated) with half a season left to play. Winless teams can be very dangerous down the stretch and there’s value with betting on them as winless teams are 45-17 ATS in week 9 or later. This week Buccaneers get a Miami team that is distracted, to put it lightly, and not as good as their record. That game is in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers have a very good chance to get their first win of the season.

Week 9 Studs

QB Mike Glennon

RB Mike James

FB Erik Lorig

DT Gerald McCoy

SS Mark Barron

Week 9 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

ROLB Jonathan Casillas

MLB Mason Foster

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their wins came at home by 3 over Cincinnati, who isn’t a very good road team (loss in Cleveland, Miami, almost in Buffalo), at home by 1 over Minnesota, who isn’t good, by 17 in Pittsburgh, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, at home against the Giants by 6, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, and last week in Green Bay against Seneca Wallace. Their losses, meanwhile, have come in Washington, at home for New Orleans, who isn’t a good road team, and in Detroit against this Lions team, who was actually facing a rough trend the last time around with Green Bay on deck. The Bears rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential.

Things aren’t going to get better with Jay Cutler right? Well, not necessarily. Remember, Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate.

They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring. Coming into the season, they had lost top defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and 4 of their top-5 defensive players. Those 4 players have all played worse this season and the other one, Henry Melton, is one for the season with injury. Also dealing with injuries are Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. The latter is out indefinitely, while the former is a shell of his former self as a result. As I said, things are only going to get worse.

Also, the Bears’ supporting cast could slack off and ease up with Cutler returning. They’ve done a great job in his absence and they might feel they no longer have to do that with Cutler back. On top of that, Cutler himself could be very limited. Remember, he was supposed to miss about a month. He’ll be exactly 3 weeks removed from the injury when he returns this week. It’s not a high confidence pick or anything, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against spread: Detroit PK

Confidence: Low

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