Month: November 2013

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The Dolphins haven’t had an ordinary week. They’ve spent a lot of the week answering questions about the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation and dealing with the NFL and the media. That’s a huge distraction, before you even get into the fact that this already weak offensive line is going to be missing 2 starters. I don’t have all of the information on the situation. Very few people do. But I’m starting to side with Incognito, considering all the people on Incognito’s side are players and ex-players and everyone on Martin’s side are media members who never played. I have to side with the players on a situation like this.

It’s an unfortunate situation, but it sounds like Martin was just going throw an NFL initiation and being toughened up by a veteran player and he just couldn’t handle it. It sounds like Incognito took a special interest into making sure Martin would succeed and was his friend. I’m not saying Incognito didn’t cross a line, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a bad guy. In other places in the world, Incognito would not be able to fit in. He couldn’t have a desk job or fit into the real world or anything, but he’s a great fit for the NFL, which isn’t really the real world.  The NFL isn’t the right place for Martin. By NFL standards, this guy is a huge pussy. He’s much better suited for a real job than Incognito. He should just do that. He has a degree from Stanford. He can still be very successful in his life. He shouldn’t have to play football.

Anyway, this situation is going to be a huge distraction for the Dolphins this week. As much as they want to say they are, they won’t be focused for this week, especially since they are playing the winless Buccaneers. After a certain point, there is value with betting on winless teams. Winless home dogs are 19-11 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989. They’ll be much, much more focused for this game than the Dolphins.

I don’t think there is as big of a talent disparity between these two teams as their record would suggest. In fact, the Dolphins actually rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 27th. The Dolphins’ offense is moving the chains at a 70% rate, largely due to poor offensive line play, which is only going to get worse, while the retooled defense isn’t doing their job, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate and only allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dolphins, but they’re better than their record (ask Seattle) and the Dolphins aren’t as good as their record. I think the Buccaneers pull the upset here against a distracted Miami team. As long as I’m getting a field goal with the Buccaneers, I have high confidence in them at least covering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

Team X is one of these teams. Team X has an explosive offense led by a dual threat quarterback drafted in the 2011 NFL Draft that moves the chains at an 81% rate and scores 25.5 points per game. They have a shutdown defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 69% rate and allows opponents to score 13.3 points per game, the 2nd best in the NFL. Their secondary doesn’t have a lot of recognizable names, but they are playing well as a unit and they are supported by a fantastic front 7, led by a big name, recognizable middle linebacker. Their rate of moving the chains differential is best in the NFL and their point differential of +98 is the 3rd best in the NFL and the best in the NFC. In terms of DVOA, they are 3rd in the NFL.

You might think Team X is the 49ers and the 49ers are certainly a very good football team, but that aforementioned Team X is actually the Carolina Panthers. The 49ers are scoring a few more points per game, scoring 27.3 points per game, but they allow significantly more, allowing 18.1 points per game. Their point differential of +73 certainly is very good, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s, coming in 5th. In DVOA, they come in 6th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 74% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That differential is a solid 9th in the NFL, but it’s not as good as Carolina’s.

If you use rate of moving the chains to calculate a line, it would say that Carolina should be favored by 3 points. I don’t agree with that and you obviously can’t follow that blindly. The 49ers have been playing much better football over the past 4 games as compared to their first 3 games and they were so good in 2011 and 2012 that you can safely throw out the first 3 games of the season as a fluke. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL. But the Panthers are too. At the very least, we’re getting significant line value with the Panthers at +6.5. Remember, the Panthers are ranked higher than the 49ers by Football Outsiders in DVOA. In spite of this, most of the action is on San Francisco and the line is actually moving down. That suggests it’s a trap line and/or the sharps are on Carolina.

The 49ers could also be caught looking forward to the Saints next week. Teams are 61-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Panthers face the Patriots next week back in Carolina, but that’s a different story. For one, New England is a non-conference opponent so it won’t be as big of a distraction. They could also be favorites, especially if they have a good showing here this week. I think the Panthers will play this one close and possibly even win.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Carolina Panthers 23

Pick against spread: Carolina +6.5

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

The Jaguars are not very good. That’s obvious. However, everyone covers at some point. There’s a time, place, and a line where you can take any team. I think this is it for the Jaguars, as 11.5 point underdogs. There’s actually some value in betting on winless teams after a certain point. Winless teams are 23-5 ATS as road dogs since 1989 in week 9 or later. Teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and possibly underrated at that situation. The Buccaneers were winless last week when they marched into Seattle and took them to overtime as 15 point underdogs before eventually losing by a field goal. The Titans aren’t as good as the Seahawks and they’re favored by almost as much here. That should tell you something.

The Titans could especially be overlooking them because they host the Colts in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. Along with that, divisional home favorites are 13-28 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of 10 or more are 10-26 ATS since 1989 before being divisional underdogs, including 7-14 ATS before being divisional home dogs. They’ll have a lot of trouble concentrating on the winless Jaguars with that game up next and, as they are an NFL team, the Jaguars are capable of taking advantage of that, no matter how bad they may seem.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +11.5

Confidence: Medium

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2013 Week 10 Fantasy Football Pickups

stevenlourie 2013 Fantasy Football Pickups, Uncategorized

RB Mike James (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.6%

Mike James’ busted out in his 2nd career start, rushing for 158 yards on 28 carries, with 2 catches for 8 yards and also a 2 yard touchdown pass. He won’t be that good every week (he had just 84 rushing yards on 24 carries in the game and a half prior after Doug Martin went down), but Martin could be out for the rest of the season and James is a clear lead back in the NFL. There’s always fantasy value with guys like that.

RB Rashad Jennings (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Surprise, Darren McFadden is hurt again. He’s expected to miss at least this week against the Giants, giving Jennings a start against one of the weaker defenses in the NFL. He only had 41 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Chargers in place of an injured McFadden earlier this year, but he also has 116 and 176 yard from scrimmage performances this season against the Redskins and Eagles respectively, after McFadden got hurt. He’s definitely going to be startable for at least a week.

WR Aaron Dobson (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.8%

Dropson has come a long way. The raw rookie 2nd rounder has shed the Dropson moniker and broken out as the primary outside receiver in a suddenly explosive again New England offense. Fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins was a healthy scratch against the Steelers, while Dobson caught 5 passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. He now has 18 catches for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last 4 games and is on pace for 55 catches for 807 yards and 7 touchdowns on the season. He could be worth a start weekly going forward if he and the rest of the Patriots’ offense keep this up and he’s definitely worth picking up.

QB Nick Foles (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.4%

Nick Foles tied the single game touchdown record against the Raiders, completing 22 of 28 for 406 yards and 7 touchdowns. Sure, his last appearance against Dallas left something to be desired to say the least, as he completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against one of the league’s worst stop units before leaving with a concussion. However, his other two appearances were much better and he has 13 touchdowns to 0 interceptions on the season, with a 62.7% completion percentage and an 8.71 YPA. He’ll be the starter until further notice and is definitely worth a pickup in fantasy if you still have an unresolved quarterback situation, or your quarterback is hurt or on bye this week.

WR Riley Cooper (Philadelphia)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.9%

Riley Cooper seems to be Nick Foles’ preferred target. In Foles’ 3 starts, Cooper has 15 catches for 347 yards and 4 touchdowns. He caught 3 of Foles’ 7 touchdowns last week. Foles will continue being the starter for the Eagles until further notice so Cooper can be picked up in most leagues.

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 19.9%

The Giants’ backfield is in such shambles that they’ve given Peyton Hillis 38 carries in their last 2 games combined after Brandon Jacobs, signed off the streets, got hurt. However, Andre Brown is expected to return from injury after the bye and could see significant snaps and carries in his season debut. He’s by far the Giants’ best passing down back and short yardage back even if everyone was healthy, but he could be a 20 touch a week back until David Wilson (out indefinitely) returns.

QB Case Keenum (Houston)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.8%

Case Keenum hasn’t won either of his first two starts, but he’s definitely putting up numbers, completing 35 of 59 for 621 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Defenses may eventually catch up to him and he could be without offensive Head Coach Gary Kubiak for an extended period of time depending on the severity of his medical condition, but he’s worth a pickup in fantasy if you still have an unresolved quarterback situation, or your quarterback is hurt or on bye this week.

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.3%

Jonathan Stewart returned from injury this week and rushed for 43 yards on 9 carries with 3 catches for 22 yards in his season debut. He could see more action as he gets re-acclimated to game action and the Panthers certainly have an unresolved running back situation with DeAngelo Williams rushing for 4.1 yards per carry. There’s room for a talented and well paid back like Jonathan Stewart to eventually get 15+ touches per game. He’s worth a bench stash.

WR Mike Brown (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.7%

Mike Brown has 12 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games on just 112 routes run. Now Justin Blackmon is out for the season with a suspension, making Brown a starter. There’s going to be plenty of opportunity for garbage time yards in Jacksonville’s offense and, as long as Chad Henne is under center, they should be able to get the ball downfield to guys like Cecil Shorts and Mike Brown, who is becoming one of Henne’s favorite guys. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues.

TE Tim Wright (Tampa Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%

There are worse tight ends in deep leagues than Wright, a 6-3 220 pounder who isn’t a blocker at all, but can present mismatches in the passing game. Wright has 23 catches for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 5 weeks. He’s now the #2 target with Mike Williams out for the season. If you need a few points from a bye week filler at tight end or you play in a deep league, take a look at Wright.

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)

You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.

However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Raiders, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

The Raiders won a close home game against the Steelers as underdogs last week, winning 21-18, but they didn’t play that well last week. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals by the Steelers that easily could have been made, the Steelers might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). The Raiders are not nearly as good as their 3-4 record. They are moving the chains at a pathetic 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here at home over a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th with a differential around -3%.

The Raiders also could be completely flat after last week. Teams are 34-56 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 3 or fewer as underdogs, including 4-9 ATS as home favorites. If you go back to 1989 to get a better sample size, teams are 9-20 ATS as home favorites off of a close win as home underdogs. Going off of that, non-divisional home favorites are 61-84 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites and the Raiders go to New York this week to face the Giants. This is a complete trap game here for a Raider team that doesn’t deserve to be favorites in the first place.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Eagles. The first is that they have to go to Green Bay next week and teams are 33-68 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The second is I have no idea which Nick Foles is going to show up. Is he going to be the quarterback who completed 38 of 56 for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 quarters against the Giants and Buccaneers and looked like a potential franchise quarterback? Or is he going to be the quarterback who completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys before getting hurt? The Eagles should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (1-6) at Dallas Cowboys (4-4)

The Cowboys are in a bad spot this week in between a crushing loss in Detroit and a tough game in New Orleans. This home game against the Vikings is the definition of a trap game.  Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Meanwhile, favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again are 73-94 ATS. On top of that, the Cowboys haven’t been a very good team as big home favorites, going 5-10 ATS as home favorites of 6 or more since the new Cowboy Stadium opened in 2009.

It’s not going to be very big play on the Vikings at all though because they are a poorly quarterbacked team who we aren’t really getting any significant line value with. They are also expected to be without three starters in the secondary. However, they should be the right side. There’s a very good chance that, even if the Vikings get dominated, they could lead a garbage time cover against Dallas’ terrible defense, which is expected to be without DeMarcus Ware again. The Cowboys are my Survivor Pick though.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Minnesota Vikings 24 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Minnesota +10

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5)

One of the most powerful trends in the NFL says that road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. Road favorites are significantly superior teams and significantly superior teams tend to use the extra week very well and dominate their inferior opponent. The Chargers are road favorites in some places, but only of a point and they are also pick em elsewhere and 1 point underdogs in other places, so it’s not clear cut.

I do think they deserve to be road favorites though. They may just be 4-3, but they are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and they are 3-1 in games decided by more than a touchdown, as opposed to 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are winning despite getting killed in turnovers, -6, as a result of a league worst 15.4% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue going forward.

Their offense has been incredible as Philip Rivers is playing at a borderline MVP level with a marginal at best offensive supporting cast. He’s been rejuvenated with new Head Coach Mike McCoy. He is completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and ProFootballFocus grades him as the #2 passing quarterback behind Peyton Manning. He is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, which is incredible, only behind Denver.

They have plenty of problems on their skeleton crew defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, good for a differential that is 9th best in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, sit at 23rd, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Chargers deserve to be road favorites by at least a couple points here and, coming out of a bye, they have a very good chance of winning in a shootout, against a very even line.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play though. One is that they aren’t really true road favorites. The other is they could be much more distracted than Washington with a home game against Denver on deck. The Redskins, meanwhile, go to Minnesota next week so they don’t have any distractions. Again, I know they aren’t true road favorites, but for reference, non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home favorites, including 2-9 ATS when their opponent will next be non-road favorites. Favorites in general are 45-80 ATS before being dogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2010. I like San Diego to win a shootout, but I’m not confident.

San Diego Chargers 34 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

The Packers have been so dominant at home over the past few seasons that they’re almost an automatic bet at home. They are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010. They are large favorites here at -11, but that’s not an issue. They are 9-4 ATS as double digit home favorites in that time frame. Besides, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least 11 points. In fact, this line might even be too low, before you even take into account their home dominance.

After they started the year 1-2, the Packers are now 5-2. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 2nd best differential in the NFL. 4 of their first 7 games, including their 2 losses, came against top-15 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier down the stretch and things will only get better as they get guys back from injuries.

They are still missing significant parts of their team for this game, but they draft and player develop so well that they have enough depth to make up for it. Guys like Jamari Lattimore have stepped up big time when needed. They’ve blown out their last 2 opponents, including a win in Minnesota last week in which they accumulated 26 first downs and didn’t punt once. They have another chance to get a blowout victory here against an inferior opponent and I think they have a very good chance to do so here this week.

The Bears are 4-3, but they are not as good as their record. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77% rate and allowing opponents to do the same. Their once dominant defense has been horrendous this season thanks to age (4 of their top-5 guys are in their age 30 season or older), injury (Henry Melton is out for the year, Charles Tillman is dealing with an injury that is limiting him significantly, now Lance Briggs is out indefinitely), and departed coaches (Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli) and it seems to get worse every week.

Their offense has been what has been carrying them this season, but that took a serious hit when Jay Cutler suffered a groin injury that is going to cause him to miss about a month. Not only are they not as good as their 4-3 record, but things are going to get worse going forward. Josh McCown played well in place of Cutler against Washington, completing 14 of 20 for 204 yards and a touchdown in an eventual 45-41 loss and it’s possible their offensive coaching staff could coach him up, with a solid supporting cast, but I definitely have my doubts in him.

In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions on 1133 attempts. I have this line calculated at -9 on paper, but when you take into account Chicago’s injury situation and Green Bay’s home dominance, the 11 point line not only makes sense, but might even be too low. I have a good deal of confidence in the Packers this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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