Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The Seahawks blew the Saints last week, winning 34-7 on Monday Night Football. Ordinarily, teams carry over that momentum off of a Monday night blowout into their next game, going 31-13 ATS since 2002 off of a win of 21 or more. However, I don’t think the Seahawks were as good as they looked last week. I’m not saying they’re bad at all. In fact, they might be the best team in the NFL. But they’re not 27 point win over the Saints good. Away from their incredible home field advantage, they could be exposed here in their biggest road test of the season.

They ordinarily don’t do well as road underdogs, going 14-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2007, including 8-17 ATS after a home game (teams generally cover at a high rate in their 2^nd straight road game because they are adjusted to being away from home). They’ve yet to be road underdogs yet this season. In fact, they’ve been road underdogs just once over the past 2 seasons, last year in San Francisco. They covered that game as 7.5 point underdogs because the 49ers declined a safety that would have been it a 9 point game, in favor of just running out the clock.

We also didn’t know how good the Seahawks were at the time. We do now, which is why this line is at 2.5 points, so we’re not getting any line value. The 49ers are a huge test for the Seahawks on the road. This game also means a lot more for the 49ers than the Seahawks. I’m not saying the Seahawks will completely sleepwalk through this game, but they are essentially locked into the #1 seed, unless they completely implode. The 49ers, meanwhile, need every win they can get to stay in the playoff picture and this is also a big revenge game for the 49ers. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS against teams that beat them in their last matchup, since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011.

I’m not that confident, however. The 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this season. Against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 6 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. In their other 6 games, Kaepernick has completed 70 of 137 for 747 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 166 yards and no touchdowns on 27 carries. They are 2-4 in those 6 games. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

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