Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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