Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans. Their 2 losses came by a combined 59 points against the Cardinals and Rams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule, but they are still -45 in point differential since the bye.

Some people may point to the loss of Reggie Wayne as the reason why and that would be a valid point. Wayne went down right before the bye in a huge win against the Broncos and they’ve really struggled since that game. Andrew Luck has completed 107 of 194 (55.2%) for 1219 yards (6.28 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his last 5 games without Wayne. However, their offensive line and defense have been playing down to their 2012 level again.

Overall, they are playing like 2012 again, when they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in order to get to the 11-5 record at which they finished. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 16^th in the NFL and even that takes into account their hot start to the season when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

That could mean trouble for them here as they did terribly on the road against quality football teams last season, losing by 12 in Houston, 20 in Chicago, and 35 in New England. The Bengals are certainly a quality football team who could blow them out if they play like they did last year. They’ve been dominant at home this year, winning all 5 games straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points per game. I’m not confident in Cincinnati because this spread seems awfully high at 6.5 (even rate of moving the chains says this line should be around 5.5) and because the Colts might play up to their level of competition again, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: None

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