Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7)

The Jets may be 5-7, but they are among the worst teams in the NFL. They have the NFL’s 2nd worst point differential as their 5 wins have come by a combined 19 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 140 points. They’ve lost their last 3 games by the combined score of 79-20 and Geno Smith has completed 29 of 74 for 374 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions over his past 4 games, a quarterback rating of 22.0 and might not start the next game, after being pulled for Matt Simms at halftime last week. Their offense is the worst in the NFL, moving the chains at a 65% rate, nullifying their solid defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72% rate, a differential that ranks 31^st in the NFL.

They’re also in a bad spot here as they have to go to Carolina next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 34-71 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could just be too distracted here. The Raiders, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Dallas. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. It also helps the Raiders that they got extra rest off of a Thursday game last week.

There are four reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Raiders. For one, they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. Teams tend to struggle in that spot. Two, the Raiders aren’t much better than the Jets. The Jets may rank 31^st in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 30^th, moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponent. We’re not really getting any line value with them.

Three, the Raiders are a huge public underdog. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially on heavy leans on the underdog. Any time the public thinks one team is going to pull an upset, it’s definitely a concern. The fourth and final reason is I really like the way the Jets have dealt with the public being against them over the past couple of years. They do a great job bouncing back, going 5-3 ATS off of a loss of 17+ and 5-3 ATS as dogs off of a loss. As long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, the Raiders should still be the right side though.

Oakland Raiders 13 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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