Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10^th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 14^th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Bears move them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 18^th in the NFL. The Cowboys, however, sit at 24^th, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents.

However, the Bears have only covered two games this season, which could explain why this line is even. They have two pushes, but they are 2-8-2 ATS on the season and one of those covers was in the game Aaron Rodgers got knocked out in the first quarter and they still struggled to beat the Packers with an unprepared Seneca Wallace under center. Last week, they lost to the Vikings, who are among the worst teams in the NFL.

They’ve been very reliant on their offense this season, but as Josh McCown has played very well in Jay Cutler’s absence, completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 75.8, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. If this is the week McCown decides to shit the bed, the Bears could be in a lot of trouble and that could happen. The Cowboys’ defense sucks, but they get Sean Lee back this week, which helps. Gun to my head, I’m taking the team that, on paper, has the better offense, and defense, and is at home, but I’m not confident in it.

Chicago Bears 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

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