What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out how often teams meet that goal, I take first downs plus touchdowns and divide it by first downs plus touchdowns plus failures to move the chains (successes divided by attempts). Failures to move the chains include punts, turnovers, failed 4th downs, and field goal attempts (being forced to kick a field goal is a failure). I have this sorted by percent for (to evaluate offenses), percent against (to evaluate defenses), and differentials (to evaluate teams). Below that, I use this to calculate spreads for this week’s games (by taking the differences between the differentials of the two teams and adding 3 points either way for homefield). It’s not a perfect formula, but it does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.
Offense
| Team | First downs | Touchdowns | Punts | Turnovers | Failed 4th downs | Field goal attempts | Percent |
| Denver | 363 | 61 | 52 | 25 | 0 | 19 | 81.54% |
| San Diego | 306 | 33 | 47 | 17 | 1 | 29 | 78.29% |
| New Orleans | 288 | 40 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 27 | 77.18% |
| Carolina | 272 | 32 | 54 | 16 | 2 | 23 | 76.19% |
| Chicago | 286 | 36 | 55 | 16 | 4 | 27 | 75.94% |
| Detroit | 293 | 39 | 54 | 28 | 9 | 20 | 74.94% |
| Seattle | 256 | 36 | 52 | 16 | 5 | 28 | 74.30% |
| Dallas | 261 | 37 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 21 | 74.13% |
| Atlanta | 266 | 29 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 22 | 73.93% |
| New England | 304 | 36 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 32 | 73.75% |
| Philadelphia | 281 | 39 | 71 | 16 | 5 | 23 | 73.56% |
| Green Bay | 274 | 30 | 53 | 20 | 4 | 33 | 73.43% |
| Cincinnati | 266 | 36 | 64 | 24 | 6 | 20 | 72.60% |
| Indianapolis | 257 | 31 | 61 | 13 | 6 | 30 | 72.36% |
| Washington | 278 | 29 | 69 | 22 | 11 | 19 | 71.73% |
| Arizona | 270 | 30 | 66 | 25 | 3 | 26 | 71.43% |
| Kansas City | 264 | 30 | 74 | 13 | 6 | 25 | 71.36% |
| Pittsburgh | 255 | 29 | 64 | 19 | 6 | 26 | 71.18% |
| Tennessee | 240 | 31 | 66 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 70.76% |
| Minnesota | 251 | 31 | 62 | 25 | 7 | 27 | 69.98% |
| St. Louis | 236 | 26 | 65 | 17 | 11 | 22 | 69.50% |
| San Francisco | 225 | 32 | 66 | 18 | 3 | 26 | 69.46% |
| Houston | 262 | 24 | 67 | 23 | 10 | 31 | 68.59% |
| Miami | 234 | 28 | 66 | 20 | 6 | 33 | 67.70% |
| Cleveland | 247 | 26 | 72 | 23 | 13 | 23 | 67.57% |
| NY Giants | 239 | 26 | 69 | 34 | 6 | 20 | 67.26% |
| Tampa Bay | 224 | 23 | 71 | 16 | 9 | 26 | 66.94% |
| Baltimore | 241 | 24 | 75 | 22 | 5 | 31 | 66.58% |
| Oakland | 218 | 26 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 26 | 66.49% |
| Buffalo | 239 | 25 | 82 | 24 | 7 | 27 | 65.35% |
| Jacksonville | 215 | 18 | 83 | 20 | 12 | 21 | 63.14% |
| NY Jets | 214 | 18 | 77 | 28 | 6 | 29 | 62.37% |
Defense
| Team | First Downs | Touchdowns | Punts | Turnovers | Failed 4th downs | Field goal attempts | Percent |
| Baltimore | 223 | 24 | 83 | 17 | 6 | 30 | 64.49% |
| Kansas City | 239 | 25 | 77 | 28 | 9 | 21 | 66.17% |
| Carolina | 219 | 16 | 57 | 26 | 7 | 28 | 66.57% |
| Cincinnati | 236 | 23 | 75 | 23 | 7 | 25 | 66.58% |
| San Francisco | 227 | 23 | 70 | 24 | 10 | 20 | 66.84% |
| Buffalo | 256 | 33 | 78 | 23 | 4 | 30 | 68.16% |
| Arizona | 248 | 27 | 70 | 25 | 9 | 23 | 68.41% |
| Seattle | 243 | 18 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 68.68% |
| NY Jets | 235 | 31 | 70 | 10 | 8 | 32 | 68.91% |
| New Orleans | 229 | 24 | 66 | 17 | 6 | 24 | 69.13% |
| Detroit | 238 | 31 | 67 | 18 | 3 | 31 | 69.33% |
| Houston | 221 | 33 | 73 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 69.59% |
| Miami | 258 | 26 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 30 | 69.95% |
| Pittsburgh | 243 | 31 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 30 | 70.26% |
| Cleveland | 263 | 33 | 78 | 16 | 4 | 27 | 70.31% |
| New England | 280 | 30 | 68 | 24 | 10 | 23 | 71.26% |
| Tennessee | 271 | 30 | 63 | 20 | 2 | 34 | 71.67% |
| NY Giants | 270 | 29 | 64 | 21 | 9 | 24 | 71.70% |
| Tampa Bay | 263 | 30 | 56 | 29 | 4 | 25 | 71.99% |
| Denver | 284 | 38 | 71 | 23 | 10 | 21 | 72.04% |
| Philadelphia | 300 | 28 | 63 | 25 | 10 | 25 | 72.73% |
| Oakland | 259 | 35 | 66 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 72.77% |
| St. Louis | 273 | 34 | 62 | 24 | 6 | 19 | 73.44% |
| Indianapolis | 270 | 33 | 57 | 19 | 6 | 27 | 73.54% |
| Green Bay | 265 | 35 | 58 | 16 | 7 | 24 | 74.07% |
| Chicago | 280 | 36 | 49 | 23 | 4 | 26 | 75.60% |
| Jacksonville | 283 | 41 | 63 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 75.70% |
| Atlanta | 268 | 37 | 50 | 12 | 4 | 31 | 75.87% |
| Minnesota | 305 | 42 | 62 | 18 | 5 | 24 | 76.10% |
| San Diego | 272 | 31 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 24 | 76.32% |
| Washington | 280 | 44 | 57 | 19 | 4 | 19 | 76.60% |
| Dallas | 324 | 40 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 24 | 77.61% |
Differential
| Team | Percent |
| Carolina | 9.62% |
| Denver | 9.50% |
| New Orleans | 8.05% |
| Cincinnati | 6.02% |
| Seattle | 5.62% |
| Detroit | 5.61% |
| Kansas City | 5.19% |
| Arizona | 3.02% |
| San Francisco | 2.61% |
| New England | 2.49% |
| Baltimore | 2.09% |
| San Diego | 1.97% |
| Pittsburgh | 0.92% |
| Philadelphia | 0.84% |
| Chicago | 0.35% |
| Green Bay | -0.64% |
| Tennessee | -0.91% |
| Houston | -1.00% |
| Indianapolis | -1.18% |
| Atlanta | -1.94% |
| Miami | -2.25% |
| Cleveland | -2.73% |
| Buffalo | -2.81% |
| Dallas | -3.48% |
| St. Louis | -3.95% |
| NY Giants | -4.44% |
| Washington | -4.87% |
| Tampa Bay | -5.05% |
| Minnesota | -6.12% |
| Oakland | -6.29% |
| NY Jets | -6.55% |
| Jacksonville | -12.56% |
Projected Week 15 Lines
| DEN/SD | 10.53409 |
| IND/HOU | 2.822029 |
| NE/MIA | 1.738824 |
| PHI/MIN | 3.957251 |
| ATL/WAS | 5.930963 |
| CHI/CLE | 0.079841 |
| BUF/JAX | 6.74346 |
| SEA/NYG | 7.059799 |
| SF/TB | 4.667042 |
| CAR/NYJ | 19.16456 |
| KC/OAK | 8.481073 |
| DAL/GB | 0.161535 |
| ARZ/TEN | 0.930098 |
| NO/STL | 8.999742 |
| CIN/PIT | 2.093642 |
| DET/BAL | 6.521617 |
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