New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6)

The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2^nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball well even without Gronkowski in the lineup at times. Remember, they beat the Saints without him earlier this season and last week Tom Brady led two late touchdown drives without Gronk and completed 32 of 52 for 418 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception in the win over Cleveland.

Yes, they needed a miracle to comeback in that game, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle by 2, which only happens about 17.7% of the time. I don’t expect them to make a habit of losing the turnover battle, as that type of thing is very inconsistent and the Patriots are historically one of the best at consistently winning the turnover battle over the past decade.

The Patriots easily won the first down battle last week 30 to 24 and punted just 5 times, as opposed 6 for Cleveland. Having Shane Vereen, who they didn’t have the first time Gronk was out, is going to be very important as he’s turned into their version of Darren Sproles. He caught 12 passes for 153 yards in the win over Cleveland and will be a matchup nightmare for the Dolphins and their terrible coverage linebackers (neither Dannell Ellerbe nor Philip Wheeler have panned out as free agent signings).

The Patriots can definitely still turn it on from time to time even without Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have them so prepared for key situations. I think this is a key situation for the Patriots. Tom Brady has had to hear about how their season is over without Rob Gronkowski all week so he could easily go into pissed off mode, which he does like no one else, except for maybe Peyton Manning (Oh, I’m bad in the cold? Okay. Thanks. Bye). After two less than stellar performances by this team, I expect a very strong effort and for them to not appear to miss Gronk, at least for this week.

The Patriots have been a covering machine with Tom Brady under center when they are not favored by 3 or more points. With Brady under center, they are 41-16 ATS in his career as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer, as they are here. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty this season, but they’ve been winning, just like they have throughout Tom Brady’s career. It might not be pretty here. Miami is a decent football team, but any time I can get Tom Brady in a situation where he essentially just needs to win, it’s pretty much an auto bet. The fact that we might be getting pissed off Tom Brady this week is just a cherry on top.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: High

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