Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)

Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.50 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while leading the Broncos to 42.3 points per game. The Broncos have surpassed 35 points per game in 6 of 7 home games this season, with the exception being against a Kansas City defense that was the best in the NFL in points per game allowed at that point, when the Broncos “only” hung 27.

As a result, the Broncos have won all 7 home games by an average of 20.43 points per game and they’ve covered in every game except for one, when they were 27 point favorites over Jacksonville, the largest line in NFL history, and “only” won by 16. They’ve also won every game by at least 10 points, with the closest being against a solid Kansas City team, which is very relevant considering this line is at 10. Their home dominance is nothing new as they are 12-4 ATS at home since Peyton Manning came to town last season, with one of those ATS losses being in the playoff game to Baltimore.

The Broncos will essentially be able to name their point total against San Diego this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.32% rate. The Chargers are a solid football team. In fact, they move the chains at a 78.29% rate, which is not only better than their opponents, but the 2^nd best in the NFL behind Denver (81.54%). They’ll be able to move the ball against a vulnerable Denver defense (72.04%), but not nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos. Even if the Chargers are an average football team, the Broncos have beaten the average football team by 20.43 points per game this season at home and no one has been closer than 10.

Especially helpful is how good Peyton Manning is at night. I don’t know if he’s a vampire or something, but he’s 31-13 ATS in night games since 2003, including 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights. The Broncos also have no distractions here with a trip to Houston on deck. Teams generally cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, which the Broncos will almost definitely be against one of the worst teams in the NFL next week. Teams are 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more.

The Chargers also don’t have any distractions this week, which is part of why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. They host the lowly Raiders next. Double digit underdogs before being favorites are 50-32 ATS since 2002. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 60-38 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more since 2002, including 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more before being favorites of 7 or more. However, I don’t think that helps them out enough to keep this one close. This is going to be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 45 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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