Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)

The Lions lost last week in Philadelphia by the score of 34-20. The Eagles won that game on the strength of a 28-6 margin in the 4^th quarter, after the Lions led by 14-6 going into the 4^th quarter. However, now the Lions return home where they are 4-2 and outscore opponents by 7.17 points per game, as opposed to on the road, where they are 3-4 and get outscored by opponents by 2.57 points per game.

Furthermore, underdogs who lead by more than a touchdown going into the final period and still lose are 28-16 ATS since 1989 as favorites the following week. There seems to be something to blowing an upset victory late, but still being favored the following week. The Lions’ loss last week was largely snow related and now they can take out all of their frustrations at home against the Ravens.

The Lions’ last 3 losses have all been pretty fluky, as they’ve had -3, -5, and -3 turnover margins in those 3 games. The Lions are 7-6 despite a -10 turnover margin on the season, which might sound bad, but I think it’s more impressive than anything. Turnover margins are very inconsistent. For instance, teams that have a -4 turnover margin have an average turnover margin of about +0.0 the following week, about the same as teams that have a +4 turnover margin. When this team doesn’t lose the turnover battle, they can compete with anyone in the NFL. They are moving the chains at a 74.94% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 5.61%, which is 6^th in the NFL. They’re underrated.

The Ravens are underrated as well. They have been terrible offensively this season, moving the chains at a 66.58% rate, but they have an amazing defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 64.49% rate. That’s a differential of 2.09%, which is 11^th in the NFL. On top of that, they have Dennis Pitta back from injury, which will help their offense. He played well in limited action in his first game back and he should be even better in his 2^nd game back.

However, the Ravens are not the same team on the road. They are 1-5 on the road, as opposed to 6-1 at home. This isn’t a new thing. Since 2008, the Ravens are 41-8 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.00 points per game, as opposed to 29-28 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.26 points per game.  It’s not a big play, but I like the Lions’ chance of bouncing back at home against a Ravens team that struggles on the road.

Detroit Lions 24 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Low

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