Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9)

Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat the Cowboys by 17, but that was only because of a last second touchdown by Joseph Randle that didn’t matter at all. Even though teams that win by 17 to 20 points are 11-10 ATS the following week, I think we might be able to still apply the logic here. I don’t think a meaningless last second touchdown will kill all of the Bears’ momentum. On top of that, teams that lead by 21 or more after 3 quarters of a Monday Night Football game are 21-12 ATS the following week and the Bears led 35-14 at the end of the 3^rd quarter.

However, while that meaningless late second probably didn’t kill the Bears’ momentum, bringing back Jay Cutler and sending Josh McCown to the bench might. McCown was amazing in 5 starts in place of Cutler this season. His 3-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story considering how bad the Bears’ defense has been this season. I kept waiting for him to shit the bed and remind us why he was a 34-year-old career backup who last posted a quarterback rating of over 70 in 2006, but he never did, bringing back flashes of Rich Gannon. All in all, he completed 66.8% of his passes for an average of 8.22 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and an interception.

Jay Cutler hasn’t been bad this season, but his numbers actually pale in comparison to McCown’s. Cutler is completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.20 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season. Even worse, he might not be 100% in his first game back from injury, like against Detroit when he completed 21 of 40 for 250 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. On top of that, his teammates could slack off knowing their starting quarterback is back, especially for an opponent like the Browns. We’re also not getting any line value with the Bears anymore, as they are 1.5 point favorites here in Cleveland.

You might look at this line and think “how can the Bears possibly not win by 2 or more in Cleveland?” However, they lost in Minnesota just two weeks ago. Their offense has been supporting this team, moving the chains at a 75.94% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.60% rate. The Browns don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but they should have some success against this Chicago defense, so if Chicago’s offense doesn’t do what it’s been doing lately against a sneaky good Cleveland defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.31% rate, the Bears could easily lose this game. I have this game calculated at a straight up pick using rate of moving the chains, and that’s before you even get to the Bears’ quarterback switch.

The Bears are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs in Philadelphia next week. They could be distracted. Teams are 32-52 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Browns aren’t in a great spot either, as they will be underdogs once again in New York against the Jets next week, as non-divisional home underdogs are 93-112 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, but it’s not the same. The Browns could also be flat off of last week’s close loss in New England, but I don’t have any trend suggesting they would be. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bears and hoping their offense can carry them and their momentum from last week will carry over, but I’m not confident.

Chicago Bears 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]