Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1)

Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good the Eagles were on the road. Since the start of last season, they are 8-6 ATS on the road. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider they are 2-13 ATS at home over that same time period. This year, now that they are actually good, they are 5-1 ATS on the road, with the one loss coming in Denver.

Nick Foles has been incredible on the road this season. He’s been incredible everywhere, but he’s been especially incredible on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.09 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles have won all 4 road games in which Nick Foles has led them in passing attempts by an average of 17.3 points per game. Overall, the Eagles are 7-1 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

At first glance, it doesn’t look like we’re getting any line value with the Eagles as 5.5 point favorites here in Minnesota. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84% that ranks 14^th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -6.12% that ranks 29^th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 4.

However, that doesn’t take into account how good the Eagles have been since Foles took over, how much of a non-factor (at the very least) going on the road is for Foles and the Eagles, and the fact that the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson in this one. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important he is to this team, but the Vikings are 1-4 ATS without him in his career, with the exclusion of his rookie season.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Cincinnati next week and might not be focused enough to keep this one close and cover. Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010 and the Vikings could definitely be double digit underdogs in Cincinnati next week, considering they were touchdown underdogs in Baltimore last week. This would be a bigger play if the public weren’t all over Philadelphia, but they should be the right side. I’m somewhat confident as long as this line stays below 6. Philadelphia is also my Survivor Pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

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